"This is our money — we will fight for the frozen reserves to the last"

The Ministry of Finance will review tax benefits for businesses — their effectiveness has already begun to be checked. This was announced by the head of the department Anton Siluanov in an interview with Izvestia at SPIEF 2025. Based on the results of the assessment, a decision will be made on the future of the so-called "tax expenditures," he said. In addition, the minister spoke about the need to attract foreign investors to Russia and about plans to conclude an agreement on avoiding double taxes with Bahrain. Why the Ministry of Finance is afraid to be optimistic when drawing up a financial plan and what is the price of the key rate for the treasury — in an interview with Anton Siluanov "Izvestia".

"The economic storm is really perfect for the budget"

— Today, you again used the definition that alarms investors — the "perfect storm" in the economy. What did you mean by that?

— I was talking about the "perfect storm" because, indeed, the economy is currently in a "storm." But this is, in fact, a planned cooling — it is necessary to reduce inflationary pressure.

An economic "storm" is really ideal for the budget. It is simultaneously influenced by three key factors: energy prices, interest rates, and the ruble exchange rate.

Our income directly depends on these parameters. Due to the volatility of exchange rates and prices, there is tension. But at the same time, the budget is drawn up correctly — in compliance with the budget rule. The deficit was initially set at 0.5% of GDP, and this is a very small figure compared to other countries.

Most importantly, we are not abandoning any of our planned commitments. Everything that is budgeted for will be funded. Yes, the deficit may have to be increased slightly, but all government decisions will be provided with money.

— The deficit forecast has tripled this year. In the past, it also turned out to be higher than planned. Do you expect this trend to continue in 2026? Are there any benchmarks for returning to surplus?

— The increase in the deficit is primarily due to the difference between forecast and actual oil prices. Due to the decline in quotations, oil and gas revenues have sharply decreased by about 2.6 trillion rubles.

Initially, we planned to allocate 1.6 trillion rubles to the National Welfare Fund, but with today's oil prices, this task is postponed. Moreover, we may have to partially use the fund's funds — about 440 billion rubles. Although we have been replenishing it until recently.

There's nothing wrong with that. We are just reviewing our plans based on the current situation. It was the fall in oil revenues that became the main reason for the growth of the deficit from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP — at the level of last year.

The future situation will depend on the dynamics of energy prices. But our key task is to develop the domestic economy regardless of the commodity situation. And it is already clear that non-oil and gas revenues are growing. In the last budget adjustment, we increased the revenue side precisely due to these revenues. This made it possible to cover additional needs, observing the budget rule.

"We can't put optimism in the budget"

— The development of the domestic economy today is facing a contradiction: high inflation and at the same time a high key interest rate. There was even a dispute between the head of the Central Bank and the Minister of Economic Development at the forum. There are predictions of stagflation and a possible recession. In your opinion, what ratio of the rate, the ruble exchange rate and the cut—off price can be considered optimal - from the point of view of the budget?

— The optimal rate value is the one at which inflation steadily decreases. Now we see that the cooling of the economy is working, and inflation is really starting to slow down. Yes, this is a painful process, and businesses are waiting for monetary policy easing. Elvira Sakhipzadovna [Nabiullina] has already stated that there is such a possibility — the price increase has reached the limits after which the regulator can lower the rate.

For the budget, each key percentage costs 280 billion rubles.

— Are there any risks of stagflation? How justified are such forecasts?

— Stagflation is when prices rise, but the economy does not. Our GDP is showing positive dynamics — by the end of the first quarter +1.7%, in April. According to Minek, it is already 1.9%.

We are now starting work on budget parameters for three years. If we manage to prepare a good budget, which is exactly what we are aiming for, this will be another argument in favor of easing monetary policy. After all, the budget and the DKP are two parts of the unified financial policy of the state, and they must work in conjunction.

— And what non-financial risks — logistics, geopolitics, sanctions — does the Ministry of Finance take into account in the forecast of income and expenses for 2026-2027?

— We are setting the current geopolitical conditions. We cannot put optimism into the budget. Our task is to ensure the implementation of all decisions taken.

Therefore, you can not relax, you can not be optimistic. As Yesenin said, you have to be more modest in your desires.

"We are interested in attracting foreign capital"

— At the same time, at the forum you are talking about the possibility of American and European money returning to Russia.

— We are interested in attracting foreign capital. Of course, it would be easier to develop the economy with external investments. Now we rely on our own resources, but access to external money, regardless of its country of origin — friendly or not — would give an additional impetus to economic growth.

The government is currently considering our proposal: if an investor — no matter which country — enters the Russian market with new money, they will not be subject to capital restrictions imposed after the sanctions began. Simply put: I came in, earned it, and calmly took it out.

— So you're opening a window of opportunity?

— Absolutely. We understand the risks faced by such investors — Russia is under sanctions. But, as the classics teach, everything depends on the rate of return. If it is above the risks, then investors will come.

— Are you sure that profitability will outweigh the risks?

— We will create all conditions for foreign investments in Russia to be protected and operate in a comfortable environment, as it has always been. Moreover, the Russian Federation has not stopped paying its obligations. All investments in our bonds are serviced: coupons are credited, funds are in the accounts. However, the owners are afraid to take them away because of external restrictions. But obligations are fulfilled — they are waiting for better times.

— The possibility of American companies returning to Russia is being actively discussed. Are there any real applications from American or European companies?

— I can't name specific applications. The Subcommittee on Foreign Investments is engaged in this. We mainly consider exit deals — when foreign companies leave the Russian market, and decide whether to approve them or not.

There are no applications for entry yet, but in general it is felt that the situation is changing — interest in investments in the Russian Federation is starting to grow.

"The next double tax avoidance agreement may be signed with Bahrain"

— No one has been talking about frozen Russian reserves for a long time. Andrey Kostin said on our air that we need to say goodbye to them once and for all. Have you said goodbye?

— No, we didn't say goodbye. It's our money. It's wrong to give such sums, no matter what they are, just like that. We will fight for the frozen reserves to the last. We will do everything possible to return this money back to our country.

— In the same interview, Kostin mentioned a way to attract foreign investment, in particular, to issue BRICS securities. How realistic is this?

— Apparently, he was referring to the idea of creating interdepartmental bridges discussed in BRICS. This is a mechanism by which a Russian investor can buy securities in China, and an investor from China can purchase assets in the Russian Federation. At first glance, it's nothing complicated. However, not all countries of the alliance are ready for such cooperation yet.

Although we have recently agreed with the EAEU countries on mutual access of investors to each other's financial markets. Probably, Andrey Leonidovich was talking about exactly this — about facilitating investors' access to the markets. This is absolutely the right direction.

— But decisions should already be made at the political level?

"Exactly.

— Which countries are currently working on agreements to avoid double taxation?

— The last such agreement was signed with the UAE. Today I met with the Finance Minister of Bahrain, and we discussed this possibility with that country. I do not rule out that the next double tax avoidance agreement may be signed with Bahrain.

"About 26 billion rubles have been received from privatization now"

— You mentioned privatization on the forum. How much has already been received from the sale of state property this year and which companies besides Dom.RF", can they go public in the coming years?

— We plan such revenues in the amount of about 100 billion rubles. Currently, about 26 billion rubles have been received from privatization. I am sure that the plan will be fulfilled, perhaps even exceeded.

As for the state—owned companies themselves, privatization is important not only as a source of budget revenue, but above all as a tool to increase efficiency. When a company is 100% owned by the state, it has only one motivation. And if there are private shareholders, there is pressure: it is necessary to increase capitalization, share price, and pay dividends. So the arrival of private investors in state assets will increase both their efficiency and their profitability.

— Did you say that there is already a list of such companies?

— Yes, the directions are defined: financial, energy and transport sectors.

— When can the list itself be announced and the process begin?

— Everything will depend on management decisions. The proposals have been submitted to the government, they are currently under consideration.

"Every benefit should be effective"

— I would like to return to the topic of budget and cost optimization. You said that some preferential rates create an additional burden on the budget. How can the consumable part be optimized? At the SPIEF plenary session, you made it clear that a number of tax preferences could be reviewed. The basic taxes will not change, but preferences can still be abolished?

— I said that we need to work in this direction. We understand the importance of stable business conditions, which is why the basic parameters of the tax system, as stated last year, remain in place.

By the way, Andrey Mikhailovich Makarov accurately noted at the economic panel today: despite the large-scale changes in the tax system last year, no one even discusses them at the forum. This means that everything was done carefully, precisely, in dialogue with entrepreneurs and society. People understand that the additional revenue from the changes goes to national projects and national tasks.

As for the benefits, the Ministry of Finance has proposals. Every benefit should be effective. We have already built a system for evaluating the effectiveness of budget expenditures: if you invest 100 rubles, there should be a specific effect. If I didn't get the result, I'm being monitored. The same approach should be applied to tax benefits, which we also call tax expenses.

We suggest at least estimating how much a new benefit brings investments in projects, how many jobs it creates, and what production facilities it launches. If the benefit does not give results, it is worth thinking about its fate.

— That is, so far we are talking about proposals, or has a preliminary effectiveness assessment already been carried out?

— We are already doing such work.

— Is it possible to understand in which areas the benefits turned out to be the least effective?

— I wouldn't get ahead of myself yet. This is a topic that needs to be carefully worked out first.

— And finally, an informal question. Elvira Nabiullina compared what is happening with inflation in Russia with "Ode to Joy" from Beethoven's 9th Symphony. What musical associations do you have?

— I'm not really into music.…

— Well, at least the genre?

— I don't know, I like jazz better.

— So we're improvising. Thank you very much!