"I don't see any companies that will return in the current geopolitical situation"
None of the Western companies voluntarily left Russia, Andrei Kostin, Chairman of the VTB Management Board, told Izvestia in an interview at SPIEF 2025. According to him, this is a decision made under pressure from the authorities in Europe and the United States. And no companies in the Russian Federation will return until this policy changes. According to Andrey Kostin, the sanctions resource against Russia is almost exhausted. The country has been living without reserves blocked abroad for three years — in his opinion, they are not needed. However, the Russians' chances of getting their frozen investments back are not yet visible — they will have to wait for the restrictions to be lifted or eased. In an interview, Andrei Kostin also called the current strengthening of the ruble harmful and called for "taxiing."
"I don't believe that sanctions or conflict with the West is a good thing."
— One of the key events of the forum is a discussion between the heads of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development on the prospects for economic growth. However, the "Ode to Joy" with which Elvira Nabiullina recently compared the situation in the economy was rarely heard today. What are the forecasts?
— It's too early to talk about a recession, but tight monetary policy will inevitably slow down economic growth. It is unlikely that it will be possible to reach 3% or 4%, most likely about 1-2%. A high key rate is good when applied over a short distance. Long-term retention at a high level leads first to a smooth drawdown, then this drawdown may be more severe.
It is important to closely monitor the dynamics of inflation, the state of business and the financial sector. So far, the situation cannot be called critical, although many companies are going through difficult times: most of their income is spent on debt servicing rather than development. In this regard, the situation is quite difficult. But let's wait and see. The central Bank has taken a fairly clear position and believes that it can handle it. Let's look at this for some more time, let's let it work. By the end of the year, we can still maintain this policy and see.
The central bank has already given a signal — although it is still very modest, 1 percentage point has little effect in practical work, the rates are still insanely high. Nevertheless, they gave a signal to the market: the regulator is ready to consider a scenario of lower rates.
According to Elvira Nabiullina, inflation is now even better than the Central Bank's forecasts. Therefore, I would not panic, but would see how the economy will continue to work.
— The regulator also says that the previous model of economic growth has exhausted itself, new ones are needed. The Minister of Economy notes that this should not be revolutionary. And everyone is very careful about what the new approach should look like. Do you have an understanding of what the model should be?
— It seems that the transition to a new model is already underway, primarily through the digitalization of the economy. Important agreements in this area were signed at the forum, aimed at creating their own products. In general, the technology of Russian banks is significantly ahead of European banks and certainly not inferior to American ones. However, we need to increase domestic production and consumption.
For example, yesterday we launched a new stage of the latitudinal highway here — it will be a very important artery in St. Petersburg. However, I look at construction equipment and I have tears. It used to be Japanese, American, but now it's all Chinese. At the same time, a bulldozer or an excavator is not an extremely complex technique. Why can't the economy produce it, thus ensuring the growth of consumption? There is a demand for this.
Now the economy is forced to revise traditional models, including the financial system. We are abandoning the dollar, and this is an important stage. I don't believe that sanctions or conflict with the West is a good thing. However, we didn't start it. Now we have seen some of the problems much more vividly than when the country was pumping oil and buying any imported equipment. Therefore, I would not make apocalyptic predictions and would focus on the tasks that we face today.
"None of the Western companies voluntarily left Russia"
— In recent months, negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine have been more or less active, and against this background, news is emerging that American companies are ready to return to Russia. In your opinion, how many foreign companies can actually return this year and which companies can they be?
— Over the past three years, I have met with a number of representatives of American and European companies. I can say this: none of the Western companies voluntarily left Russia. It was not an economically justified decision, it was a decision made under pressure from political authorities in Europe and the United States. And no companies will return to us until this policy changes. The European side is not even thinking about changing, but the American side is still thinking about it — there are no new sanctions on its part, there is no harsh pressure on third countries. It seems that Trump and his administration are still considering where to go next.
So far, I don't see any companies that could return to Russia in the current geopolitical situation.
— Will foreign banks still leave?
— They are in no hurry to leave, but everything depends on political pressure. If there is none, the banks are ready to work, even despite the restrictions on withdrawing profits — they hope to receive these funds someday. However, some banks, such as UniCredit, are facing pressure.
"We've been living without reserves for three years — I don't think we need them"
— One of the topics that is inevitably connected with sanctions is the return of Russian reserves. Do you think it's worth waiting for?
— We've been living without reserves for three years — I don't think we need them. In 2009, the reserves were used to stabilize the ruble exchange rate. And now I don't see the need at all.
What has changed due to the fact that reserves have become half as small? It's nothing. Although, of course, this is just theft, robbery, and it cannot be justified by international laws.
— Are the assets of Russian investors unlikely to be returned either?
— So far, the probability is extremely low. Russia offered an asset exchange scheme, but after the October 2024 sanctions, the United States and the EU tightened the rules. Such operations now require regulatory approval, including OFAC, which makes the process almost impossible due to its scale. It remains only to wait for the lifting or easing of the sanctions regime. Then Western investors will be able to receive their assets and income from these years in Russia, and Russians will be able to receive their investments abroad.
— How do you assess the situation with the use of internal reserves? I mean the money that is currently being deposited.
— The amount of funds on deposits continues to grow and may reach 65 trillion rubles by the end of the year. However, this money is being used. You know, like in that joke: you move a piece of fat from one refrigerator to another, but the fat remains. Banks actively place this money in the form of loans and investments in securities.
"The challenge now is to create an alternative financial system for the Global South"
— If we are talking about securities, would you support what the Ministry of Finance is proposing, a large—scale privatization using an IPO?
— I have always supported privatization. Privatization could be an effective tool, but it requires serious solutions. The government needs to reconsider its approach to assets that are now considered inviolable. Without this, large-scale proceeds from privatization should not be expected. In addition, it is more interesting to privatize when the stock market is expanding in the country. And without the participation of foreign investors, its growth is difficult. The experience of leading financial centers, such as the New York Stock Exchange, shows that capital needs to be raised globally. There's money from the Arabs, the Chinese, and everyone else, and we need to strive for that too.
The interest from Arab investors is already noticeable — their representatives are actively participating in Russian forums. However, new financial instruments are needed for large-scale investments. I met with one of the heads of a very large Arab fund, and he said, why don't you issue BRICS securities? There are such opportunities, but we need to deal with them more carefully. The challenge now is to create an alternative financial system for the Global South. And this is impossible without launching global financial centers.
— There have been talks about this for a long time, but there is no progress yet — why?
— Russia needs to develop these areas — to create alternatives to the dollar, euro and Western payment systems like SWIFT. It's not safe for us to work on Western exchanges because the dollar is becoming a weapon. And Trump understands this, he has repeatedly said that he wants to prevent other countries from leaving the dollar. Even US allies such as Japan have begun to reduce investments in US treasury bonds.
The global economic map is changing: the centers of influence and capital are already distributed more evenly, shifting towards the Global South. And, of course, the creation of the necessary financial infrastructures should follow.
"After 28,000 restrictions, what can the West do— introduce five more?"
— In the spring, global markets were shaken up by Trump's tariffs. How do you think this could affect Russia and should we join this protectionist race?
— The new US duties affect Russia to a lesser extent. The sanctions regime is already the toughest trade barrier. The restrictions affected oil exports, logistics, and many other areas.
However, global trade conflicts may hit the economy of China, one of the key consumers of Russian resources. This will create indirect risks for the Russian Federation, given its dependence on exports. The problems of the global economy have never helped our country. For example, in 2008, the Russian Federation declared itself a "safe haven," but a year later it faced an 8% drop in GDP.
The situation is somewhat different now: the West has limited purchases of Russian energy resources as much as possible, which has reduced dependence on these markets. In a sense, we are definitely a "safe haven" here. The sanctions resource against Russia is also largely exhausted: after 28,000 restrictions, what can the West do — introduce five more?
— The ruble has been strengthening lately. Do you see any risks in this?
— The strengthening of the ruble is harmful now — we need to slow down. The optimal exchange rate is 90-100 rubles per dollar. I think we are now selling the currency in vain and artificially maintaining a strong national currency.
Oil prices have risen due to the Middle East conflict, which additionally supports the ruble. However, most analysts agree that by the end of the year, the exchange rate may return to around 90 rubles/$. And for a balanced budget, a level of about 100 rubles would be more comfortable.
"With a price increase of 40%, it would be difficult, but inflation in the range of 10% is a beauty"
— Is the threefold adjustment of the budget deficit serious?
— Of course it's serious. Now it is often said that if measures are not taken, then inflation can jump significantly. With a price increase of 40%, it would be difficult, but inflation in the range of 10% is a beauty.
— The President has set a difficult task — to double the capitalization of the stock market by 2030. Do you think this is achievable? And what needs to be done for this?
— Some measures can be introduced, for example, to expand the possibilities of pension funds to invest in securities. However, without an influx of money from abroad, it will be difficult to achieve a doubling of the stock market.
Historically, the growth of the Russian market has largely been driven by foreign investments. Despite the success in creating its own infrastructure and the transition to the placement of securities within the country, international investors played a significant role. Therefore, we need to work in this direction.
We also need to take some measures to encourage Russian investors. In recent years, I myself have often scolded my employees when I discovered that a lot of tricky securities were sold to people who were not qualified for this. A person cannot be considered a qualified investor if he has a lot of money.
For most citizens, bank deposits remain the optimal way to save money. We have a healthy banking sector. In recent years, almost no one has been stripped of their licenses and no one has been sanctioned.
— One more question at the end of our conversation. Elvira Nabiullina, with the light hand of our colleagues, introduced a new assessment of the state of the economy in a musical format. You unexpectedly offered an assessment of the work of forecasters in the form of clicks. Who are you ready to give a snap to, since the Central Bank still lowered the key?
— I forbade my staff to predict the key rate, because the rate is not a forecast. It is determined by specific people, specific advice. Come Friday, you'll find out.
I said somewhere that I couldn't imagine that my deputy would beat my ass. That's why I proposed this dispute quite boldly. After reducing the bid, I gave him virtual click-throughs.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
