Nose on the sea: China's interest in the Northern Sea Route is growing
China is interested in wider use of the Northern Sea Route amid rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, Russian Far East and Arctic Minister Alexei Chekunkov told Izvestia. Nevertheless, the republic is in no hurry to invest heavily in the Arctic project. At the same time, the degree of participation is growing: by the end of 2024, the number of flights of Chinese companies on the Arctic route has almost doubled. See the Izvestia article about what is holding Beijing back and why Chinese partners are also growing interest in the NSR.
NSR as an alternative for China
China is interested in wider use of the Northern Sea Route, Russian Far East and Arctic Minister Alexei Chekunkov told Izvestia.
"For China, the Northern Sea Route is a strategically important route both from the point of view of economic efficiency — it is 40% shorter than the Southern One — and from the point of view of a geostrategic alternative in case of increased tensions in the South China Sea," he said.
On May 21, it became known about new joint naval exercises of the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea. In addition to patrol boats, which participated in such exercises for the first time, aviation from both countries was involved in them, including the US Navy P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft, which is designed to search for and destroy submarines.
This is the second joint exercise between the two countries this year and the sixth since 2023. Beijing believes that such events increase the threat of military risks, which is why China is growing interest in wider use of the Northern Sea Route, where there is no such danger.
Recently, China has regularly clashed with the Philippines in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Together with them, a number of Asian countries have been arguing over islands and reefs in the South China Sea for many years.
US Navy Poseidon P-8A aircraft
China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, as well as Taiwan (which Beijing considers its province) dispute islands in the South China Sea, which have huge hydrocarbon reserves on their shelves. In addition, $3 trillion worth of transportation is carried out annually through the South China Sea.
The disputed territories include the Xisha Archipelago (Paracel Islands), the Nansha Islands (Spratly Islands) and the Huangyan Islands (Scarborough Reef). China claims most of the islands, despite the negative decision of the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which was sued by the Philippines.
At the end of April, Beijing and Manila one after another set up their flags on the disputed Sandy Cay Reef, near Titu Island, an important outpost of the Philippines. In China, they accused their opponents of encroaching on the sovereignty of the PRC.
The matter is complicated by the constant US intervention in the Asia-Pacific region. On May 20, at an open debate of the UN Security Council, Chinese Ambassador Geng Shuang accused Washington of sending its warships to the South China Sea to foment confrontation between the countries.
Nevertheless, such tensions in the region are uncritical for Beijing, Alexey Maslov, an orientalist and director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies, told Izvestia.
"China is conducting fairly competent negotiations with all participants in the process in the South China Sea (regarding the code of conduct in the South China Sea — Izvestia), even with the Philippines, which is not very positive about China," the expert believes.
In his opinion, China is not currently considering harsh military scenarios that could interrupt trade along the Maritime Silk Road along the southern tip of the mainland. Only a military conflict over Taiwan can lead to a complete blockage of trade along the southern route. In this case, China risks losing 40-60% of its goods, including oil from the Persian Gulf countries.
Beijing will completely reorient itself to the Northern Sea Route only if there is a major war in the Pacific Ocean, and its probability is minimal now, said Sergey Lukonin, head of the Chinese Economic and Political Sector at the Central Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Thus, the NSR seems to be one of the options for China in its risk diversification policy so far.
Why the Northern Sea Route is economically beneficial to China
Transportation of goods via the NSR is a little faster and a little cheaper compared to the southern route through the Suez Canal, Alexey Maslov believes. Thus, goods will be able to reach Europe via the Arctic route in 23-26 days with lower fuel consumption, and via the Suez Canal in 29 days. At the same time, due to the cold climate on the Northern Sea Route, some goods, such as electrical equipment, cannot be transported.
The first meeting of the Subcommittee on Cooperation on the Northern Sea Route (NSR)
One way or another, China's interest in the NSR is evidenced by specific figures. By the end of 2024, the number of flights of Chinese companies on the Arctic route has almost doubled, from seven to 13, the press service of the Plenipotentiary Representative of the President of the Russian Federation in the Far Eastern Federal District, Yuri Trutnev, reported.
In addition, in November 2024, Russia and China held the first meeting of the bilateral subcommittee on cooperation on the NSR. "We have already recorded a number of specific agreements between our countries on the safety of navigation. I believe that we have laid a solid foundation for the future work of the sub—commission," said Alexey Likhachev, CEO of Rosatom.
In addition to the trade and logistics potential, the development of the Northern Sea Route contributes to the development of business related to the production of liquefied natural gas, in which China is interested, Nikolai Marchenko, Sinologist and director of the Eurasian Youth Projects NGO, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
"As you know, China is one of the main investors in the Yamal-LNG and Arctic-LNG Arctic projects," the expert noted.
China invests directly in gas condensate fields, as it acquired their shares at one time and can now control their cash and gas flows, Alexey Maslov draws attention.
— If China does not control something, but simply remains one of the partners, then it almost never invests here, - the orientalist emphasized.
Therefore, at the moment, China cannot yet be called a major investor in the NSR. Moreover, Chinese partners may fear secondary sanctions from the United States and the EU if Beijing decides to make serious financial investments in Russian infrastructure, Sergei Lukonin added.
The issue of further increasing Chinese NSR flights largely depends on the stability of trade between China and Europe. Today, the prospects are not so optimistic, Cui Heng, an employee of the SCO Center for International Legal Training and Cooperation at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said in a conversation with Izvestia. He also noted that the rapid development of China-Europe Express trains could seriously compete with the NSR.
Thus, the Northern Sea Route is one of those projects in which China is interested, but does not actively participate in it. Nevertheless, the NSR opens up wide trade opportunities not only for Russia, but also for Asian countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly called on foreign logistics companies and governments to actively use the opportunities of the global transport corridor: "There are relevant plans for the development of the Northern Sea Route, including with our foreign partners, who, as I have repeatedly said, want to develop relations with Russia." He added that the development of the NSR should be the most important strategic priority of the country.
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