Limited vision: what has the European Union included in the 17th package of sanctions

The new sanctions will not affect the Russian economy, experts interviewed by Izvestia are confident. According to them, European states are only trying to show their unity. On May 14, the EU ambassadors agreed on the 17th package, which will be officially adopted on May 20. The restrictions should affect 189 tankers that allegedly transport Russian oil under the flags of foreign countries. In addition, measures are envisaged against individuals and legal entities associated with the Russian military-industrial complex. Companies from third countries, including Vietnam and the UAE, should be affected. What and who else will be included in the new package of sanctions and why it is "relatively weak" — in the Izvestia article.

The EU has agreed on the 17th package of anti-Russian sanctions

The EU ambassadors approved the next package of anti-Russian sanctions on May 14. This information was first confirmed by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud, and then by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Earlier it was reported that half of the sanctions package was prepared by Paris, and Hungary and Slovakia, which are loyal to the Russian Federation, agreed to its adoption, since the 17th package is "relatively weak."

"I welcome the agreement on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia. We are further restricting access to combat technology. And we have added 189 more ships of the shadow fleet to the list in order to combat Russian energy exports," von der Leyen said on her Facebook page.

It is assumed that the sanctions package will be officially signed and published on May 20 at a meeting of the foreign ministers, however, some of its details are already known. It is assumed that restrictions will be imposed against 30 companies that have been spotted trading in dual-use goods, as well as against 75 individuals and legal entities associated with the Russian military-industrial complex.

The export of chemicals used in the manufacture of missiles to the Russian Federation will be banned. Brussels is going to impose restrictions against individual Russian banks, which, according to the European side, may participate in circumvention of sanctions.

In addition, the countries agreed to expand the legal framework for imposing sanctions on Russian hybrid threats. One of the new measures will allow the EU to apply restrictions against fleets allegedly destroying submarine cables and other physical assets.

Companies from third countries, including the UAE, Turkey, Serbia, Vietnam and Uzbekistan, which Brussels suspects of helping Russia evade sanctions, may be subject to restrictions. The restrictions will also apply to legal entities and individuals who, according to Brussels, spread disinformation, as well as judges and prosecutors who participated in the cases against Vladimir Kara-Murza (recognized as a foreign agent) and Alexei Navalny (listed by Rosfinmonitoring in the register of organizations and individuals involved in extremist activities or terrorism).

Moscow has repeatedly stated that Western sanctions have failed to have the impact on the Russian economy that the West expected. On May 13, Vladimir Putin once again stressed that Russia would not be intimidated by new sanctions, and also added that the world's leading economies were falling into recession only to harm Russia. "They do many things to their own detriment: it seems that they won't do this for sure, because it harms them, but they do," the Russian leader said.

At the same time, even some European politicians admit that restrictions have a greater negative impact on EU countries.

"Now they are trying to definitively undermine the sovereignty of the national energy policy. They want to force Central European countries to abandon cheap and reliable energy sources, thereby creating a situation in which household electricity costs in Central Europe can double," said, for example, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations Peter Szijjarto.

The European Union expects a political rather than a practical effect from the new package of sanctions, Ivan Timofeev, program director of the INF Treaty, tells Izvestia. According to the expert, European states are trying to show their unity in an environment where the United States is not ready to support them in their attempts to put pressure on Russia by imposing restrictions.

"The European Union, regardless of the decisions surrounding the Ukrainian negotiation process, will maintain the sanctions superstructure, as well as take demonstrative steps in these matters to once again remind itself and show that it still has instruments of pressure," Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, told Izvestia.

The fact that the set of issues included in the new package does not differ significantly in scale and novelty also speaks to the significant "demonstrativeness" of the agreed sanctions.

— The fight against the "invisible tanker fleet" is already quite an old EU song. Updating the list of sanctioned officials is an even older song. In fact, this package will not bring significant changes either from the point of view of the EU's position or from the point of view of the sustainability of the Russian economy. The EU simply records in a peculiar way that it is not going to turn away from its chosen course," he stressed.

Sanctions against tankers

The European Union is betting that sanctions against tankers will be the most painful for Russia. However, according to experts, there will be no changes in the market from the introduction of these measures. Apparently, the Europeans are simply repeating the sanctions that the Americans imposed on January 10 under the previous administration, said Igor Yushkov, a lecturer at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

— These tankers do not enter European ports, are not serviced and are not insured. The large number of tankers indicated suggests that this sanctions package needed to be filled out and accepted. To show that Europe is putting pressure on Russia. And if there is any further development in the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the European Commission will record this as an asset as effective sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation," the expert believes.

Nevertheless, according to Yushkov, the massive inclusion of Russian tankers in the sanctions package can be considered as an attempt to block the Baltic Sea for the Russian Federation. In this case, it will not be able to export oil from Primorsk and Ust-Luga, while it is not yet possible to transfer it to other ports due to large volumes of fuel - these are the endpoints of the BTS—1 and BTS-2 oil pipelines, the expert says.

If the new package of European sanctions really intends to block the Baltic Sea for the Russian Federation, its introduction will result in a serious geopolitical escalation in Europe, says Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of WMT Consult.

— Last year, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that attempts to restrict navigation in the Baltic Sea would be regarded as another unfriendly step, which would inevitably be followed by harsh retaliatory measures. Therefore, the option of playing out the Baltic Sea—NATO Sea scenario is unlikely to lead to peace in Europe," Kosareva comments.

Russia has already accumulated extensive experience in dealing with such restrictions, said Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Besides, European sanctions are not US restrictions. "American sanctions may have a much greater impact, since fuel payments are still made in dollars, not euros," the expert added. According to him, a number of countries will probably actively circumvent these restrictions, and in some cases even ignore them.