Without the Pope's blessing: why the conclave couldn't choose a pontiff
The first vote in the election of the 267th pope was inconclusive, which is not surprising — cardinals vote in conditions of serious division. At about 21 hours (22:00 Moscow time), black smoke began to rise from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican. 133 cardinals are voting for the new pontiff, but there is no clear favorite. Among the contenders are followers of Pope Francis Matteo Zuppi and Pietro Parolin, who have repeatedly visited Russia. Representatives of the conservative wing, dissatisfied with the policies of the last pope, intend to take revenge. But more often than not, an unexpected figure wins the election of the pope, experts say. About the process of electing a new pontiff and the schisms within the Catholic Church — in the material of Izvestia.
How to choose a pope
At about 6 p.m. (19:00 Moscow time), the election of the pope began in the Sistine Chapel. The words extra omnes ("everyone out") were heard — after that, all outsiders should leave the building, and the cardinals should proceed to the first vote. But three hours later, black smoke began to rise from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, which means that the conclave was unable to elect a new pontiff in the first round. New rounds of elections are due on May 8, and the cardinals will vote until they determine who will succeed the late Pope Francis. He died at the age of 89 on the morning of April 21 as a result of a stroke.
The election of the pope is an ancient procedure, its rules are constantly changing. Once, the election of the pontiff took place for three years, from 1268 to 1271. The place of election also changed: the conclave of 1314-1316 was held in France, and a century later, in 1415-1417, in Germany. It was only in 1996 that the Apostolic Constitution Universi Dominici Gregis ("Universal Flock of the Lord") was adopted, which approved the current procedure for electing the pontiff.
Pope Francis
The first day of the conclave is devoted to religious and preparatory ceremonies. In particular, a special mass was held, conducted by the Dean of the College of Cardinals, Giovanni Battista Re. After that, the cardinals went to the Sistine Chapel.
Before voting begins, the cardinal electors take an oath to observe the absolute secrecy of the elections. And until white smoke comes out of the chimney, they are completely cut off from the outside world: no phones, no newspapers, no television. The cardinals go to spend the night at St. Martha's House, which was attached to St. Peter's Cathedral in 1996. The building is intended, among other things, for the residence of cardinals during the conclave.
The head of the Roman Catholic Church is chosen by cardinals who have not reached the age of 80. Currently, it has 252 cardinals, of whom 133 meet this criterion. Moreover, most of them were ordained by the late Pope Francis himself. At the same time, for the first time, the majority of the college of cardinal electors will not be from Europe. There are 52 cardinals from this part of the world, most of them representing Italy. 23 cardinals came from Asia, 20 from North America and 17 from South America, 17 from Africa and four from Oceania.
Cardinals pray in the Sistine Chapel before the conclave to elect the next Pope in the Vatican, May 7, 2025
Secret voting is used in elections. The cardinal-elector writes the name of the candidate he is voting for on a piece of paper, folds it in half and dips it into a bowl. Every day, three people are chosen by lot from among the cardinals, who immediately count the votes, and after each round the ballots are burned. Special chemicals are added to the flame, which turns the smoke black or white. Smoke from the chimney in the Sistine Chapel is clearly visible from St. Peter's Square, but for greater clarity, bells will ring after the election of the new pontiff. This is how the city and the world learns about the election of a new Catholic pastor.
There is usually only one round of voting on the first day of the conclave. Then two rounds every morning and two at noon. To be elected, a candidate will need to receive two thirds of the votes plus one or 89. By the way, the conclaves of 2005 and 2013 lasted two days, in the first case it took four rounds of voting to elect the pontiff, in the second — five. If a new pope is not elected after three days of voting, the process will be suspended for a day so that the cardinals can pray and reflect on the current situation. In recent history, the longest conclave took place in 1922 and lasted for five days. And the fastest occurred in 1503, when Julius II was elected in a few hours.
By law, any Catholic man can be elected pope, but since 1379, the College of Cardinals has been determining the new head of the church from among its members. When the votes are counted, the winner of the election is asked if he is ready to become pope and what name he chooses. The procedure for electing the pontiff is considered extremely secret, and it is forbidden to talk about what is happening in the Sistine Chapel. Anyone who violates this rule will be automatically excommunicated. However, some details are still known. So, Francis allegedly answered this question: "Even though I am a sinner, I accept."
The new pontiff is dressed in papal robes in the so-called "Room of Tears" next to the chapel. Some time after the appearance of white smoke over the Vatican, cardinals appear on the balcony overlooking St. Peter's Square, then the traditional phrase "Habemus Papam" ("We have a pope") is pronounced, and the new head of the Catholic Church is introduced to the world.
Who can become Pope of Rome
Although there is no official list of candidates, several "papabiles" appear before each election — experienced and influential hierarchs who are able to form a coalition of other cardinals around themselves. This is actively used by sweepstakes and bookmakers, especially in Italy.
Currently, the media is highlighting several potential candidates for the papal throne. The first is the chairman of the Italian Episcopal Conference and Archbishop of Bologna, an unconditional supporter of Francis Matteo Zuppi. He is a favorite of the progressive public, who has gained prestige through diplomatic and charitable activities. The late pope instructed him to participate in important diplomatic negotiations, including on the Ukrainian conflict. Zuppi is well known in Moscow: he came to Russia last October and met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Matteo Zuppi, Chairman of the Italian Episcopal Conference and Archbishop of Bologna
Another possible favorite is Pietro Parolin, Secretary of State of the Holy See. According to sources in the Corriere della Sera newspaper, he can count on 50 electoral votes. Among his achievements was the 2018 agreement on the appointment of bishops in China, which effectively meant the start of diplomatic relations between the Holy See and China. He has the opportunity to participate in the settlement of the Iranian nuclear dossier. Parolin made a significant contribution to the Vatican's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons by delivering an address at the 50th IAEA General Conference in Austria in 2006. In 2017, the Secretary of State of the Holy See visited Russia and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia.
The fact that they are Italians also plays into the hands of both candidates — the pontiff from the Apennines has not been elected since 1978. Another possible candidate is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. He is called the "Asian Francis" for his charisma, openness and adherence to the ideas of the late pontiff. In addition, there is an increase in the number of Catholics in Asia, whose total number in the world has reached 1.4 billion people. This circumstance may influence the decision of the cardinals.
All of the above prelates are usually attributed to the progressive wing of the Roman Catholic Church and followers of Pope Francis. However, the conservative part of the Vatican was outraged by Francis' "more conciliatory stance" on same-sex unions and divorce, protection of migrants, and the Vatican's agreement with China, which gave Beijing a say in the appointment of Catholic bishops. Now they hope to strengthen their influence by electing a pope with similar views.
Among the conservatives, Hungarian Archbishop Peter Erde, who represents their moderate wing, has the best chance. According to unofficial sources, he can currently count on the support of 25 cardinal electors. Erde's experience in the field of canon law and connections among politicians in Europe may play in his favor. The Hungarian Archbishop also visited Russia and maintained contacts with the Russian Orthodox Church.
The new pope is being chosen in the context of a double schism. The first is geopolitical, it is associated with a change in the world order, when the centers of power conflict with each other, for example, Russia and the West, within which there are also contradictions. Secondly, there is a growing schism within the Catholic Church itself, especially between the center and its periphery. There is a choice between continuing the experiments and following the agenda and returning the church to a stricter doctrine, Stanislav Stremidlovsky, a political scientist and expert on the Vatican, told Izvestia.
— It is far from a fact that hyped people become the pontiff. Most often, the opposite happens, some unexpected figures pop up," the expert noted.
Whoever becomes the new pope will have to make great efforts to preserve the unity of the church by reconciling the conservatives and the progressive wing. In addition, the future pontiff will have to defend the role and importance of Christianity in an increasingly secular world. The future of the entire Catholic Church depends on whether the Vatican can meet these challenges.
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