The road to regression: Prime Minister Starmer's rating has broken through another bottom

The popularity rating of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is only 22%. Conservative leader Kemi Badenok, who is in opposition, has exactly the same amount. At the same time, the head of the Reform United Kingdom party, Nigel Farage, has 36% in his asset, which makes him one of the most popular politicians in the UK. In addition, 51% of Britons now express dissatisfaction with Starmer's policy. In early May, Farage's party defeated two of the country's leading political forces, gaining 677 seats in local government elections. The Tories and the Labour Party combined have 417 seats. The Liberal Democrats also won many seats. Against this background, some British publications and even the leader of the opposition, Badenok, admitted that Farage could become the next prime minister.

Prime Minister Starmer's rating dropped to 22%

On May 6, the popularity rating of the British Prime Minister is only 22%. The leader of the Conservative Party, Kemi Badenok, has the same amount, according to YouGov. The rating of the leader of the Reform UK party, Nigel Farage, is 36%. He is now one of the most popular politicians in the United Kingdom. At the same time, 51% of respondents express dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer and 49% with Farage. At the end of April, the Ipsos portal presented its statistics. Back then, Starmer's rating was 23%. Farage was already in the lead with 29%.

Starmer's fall was no accident. Back in December 2024, his approval rating broke the anti-record among all prime ministers over the past 40 years. "Only 27% of Britons are satisfied with Starmer's work, while 61% express dissatisfaction, resulting in a net satisfaction index of 34," Ipsos stated. For comparison: in the first five months, Gordon Brown's index was 23, Rishi Sunak's was 22, Boris Johnson's was 20, and Margaret Thatcher's was 3. They all faced a crisis of trust, but the current prime minister found himself in a worse situation.

The economy is the main stumbling block. Starmer promised growth, but instead the country is teetering on the brink of stagflation. The growth rate of prices is projected to jump to 4% by autumn due to the rise in energy prices. The Bank of England has already admitted that the technical recession was avoided only by a miracle: zero GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, unemployment, which could reach 5% by 2026, and the migration crisis, exacerbating social tension. "The economy is expected to grow by only 0.75% this year, which is half as much as predicted in November," analysts say. Labour's promises of a "fresh start" have become empty words after 14 years of Conservative rule.

Starmer's foreign policy also raises questions. The prime minister, who is not just called a Russophobe and a hawk, continues to increase aid to Ukraine. In March 2025, he announced a new $2 billion package of military support for Kiev, despite the growing discontent of citizens inside the country.

"These funds clearly do not contribute to solving internal problems," Igor Kovalev, First Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, comments to Izvestia. — The Labor Party is somehow not very good at solving Britain's many problems. When there is a crisis in the country, the search for alternatives becomes urgent.

Despite all the failures, the Labor leader continues to hatch the idea of deploying a British contingent in Ukraine. It is obvious that the current Britain does not have enough financial and military resources for this "assistance" to affect the situation in the war zone.

Starmer found himself hostage to his own rhetoric. He came to power on a wave of Tory fatigue, but could offer nothing but criticism of his predecessors. The Labor Party has not only failed to stop migration, but has also worsened it — the number of illegal crossings of the English Channel has increased by 20% in a year. Social programs, including healthcare reform, have stalled due to lack of funding. Even the traditional Labour electorate, the working class, is disappointed: real incomes have fallen by 3% over the year, and housing and utility prices continue to break records.

What if Farage becomes the future British Prime Minister

While Starmer is losing support, Nigel Farage is celebrating a triumph. On May 1, his party won 677 seats in the local elections, while the Tories and Labor combined won only 417. The Liberal Democrats, who won 370 seats, also failed to compete. "I'm going to transform the landscape of British politics, just like in the past," Farage said, recalling his role in Brexit.

The success of Reform UK is not an accident. The party has relied on those who are ignored by mainstream forces: opponents of migration, skeptics of European integration (even after Brexit) and citizens tired of the "politics of political correctness." Farage, a master of provocative statements, promises to "regain control" of the borders, reduce or even stop aid to Ukraine and lower taxes. His rhetoric resonates in regions traditionally dominated by the Tories. "The Tory party is over, its 195-year history is coming to an end," he said after the election.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenok is forced to acknowledge the threat.

"Anything is possible," she said, answering a question about Farage's prospects of becoming prime minister. — My task is to make sure that he does not become prime minister, because he does not have the answers to the problems.

However, her arguments sound unconvincing. The Tories lost 677 seats in the local elections, while the Labor Party lost 199. Reform UK, which started from scratch, now controls seven counties and has five seats in parliament. However, Igor Kovalev believes that so far Farage has no chance of coming to power.

— Because, after all, the two-party system was conceived in order to ensure stability. And these extreme alternative ways out of a difficult situation should be blocked. The national system of parliamentary elections is designed in such a way that votes cast for third parties, that is, not for Conservatives and not for Labor, are actually thrown into the trash. The British understand this, and so far the main choice for them is the mainstream parties," he said.

But if the economy continues to stagnate and Labour and the Tories fail to find answers, Farage's party could attract even more voters, which could play a key role in the country's future general elections, he added.

Faraj himself does not hide his ambitions. He plans to raise £40 million for his campaign before the next election. At the same time, he has already, in his own words, secured the support of new donors. Farage uses very simple slogans in his struggle, which his opponents consider radical. "Stop paying for other people's wars," "Britain is for the British," "Stop stagnation."

The crisis of trust in Starmer and the rise of Farage are symptoms of a systemic failure. The Labour Party and the Tories, who have been succeeding each other for decades, have exhausted the credit of hope. The economy, migration, social inequality — there is no progress on any of these issues. Farage, like Donald Trump in the United States, exploits the demand for a "strong hand." If Starmer does not stop the decline in GDP, and Badenok does not restart the Tories, Britain may see a prime minister who was considered marginal yesterday. And then the question will not be "can Farage", but how quickly it will happen.

However, even Farage's hypothetical rise to power in the UK does not guarantee significant changes in relations between Moscow and London. Despite the fact that he is against helping Ukraine, it is impossible to call him pro-Russian or friendly to the Russian Federation. The anti-Russian consensus continues to prevail in all echelons of the United Kingdom's government, and an unfriendly course will continue to be a characteristic feature of British foreign policy.

London remains a key destabilizing player in the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. In recent years, there have been many contradictions between the countries: Britain has expanded sanctions against Russia more than 40 times, severed ties at almost all levels, and still has not provided any information on the Skripal case after the Salisbury staging. It is unlikely that all this could be settled by changing one person. An example of the complexity of solving such problems is the process of normalization of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the United States. Despite the progress, many more bilateral efforts are needed to restore normal relations.