Interest rates have run away: loans have sharply fallen in price
Real consumer loan rates in the largest banks fell to an average of 35% by the end of April, when the Central Bank's decision on the key issue is less than a week away. Over the past month, the indicator has decreased by 5 percentage points at once, Izvestia found out. Banks are softening the terms of loans to make them more attractive. This is a sure indicator that the regulator is unlikely to raise the rate at future meetings — banks would not improve lending conditions if they were not confident of completing the policy tightening cycle. What awaits the market on April 25 is in the Izvestia article.
Loan rates in Russia
The average level of the full cost of loans (the CPI includes not only the rate, but also all additional costs of the borrower — insurance and fees) decreased by 5 percentage points before the Central Bank meeting on the key rate on April 25, according to data from the websites of the largest banks (Izvestia studied them). Now the indicator is at 35%, although by the end of March it reached 40%.
During the month, 11 banks out of the top 15 adjusted real rates. The minimum cost of loans for the month decreased by 1 percentage point, to 28.3% — these are, on average, the most favorable conditions currently offered by banks, Izvestia found out. The maximum is 42%.
Banks are waiting for the start of the key rate reduction cycle in the second half of 2025, so they have already begun to gradually reduce rates on all types of products, said Yuri Belikov, managing director of the Expert RA rating agency.
"At the beginning of the year, it was assumed that the Bank of Russia would raise its key rate if it did not see a steady decline in inflation, but now such a scenario is no longer being considered seriously, it is extremely unlikely," he said.
Market expectations for easing the Central Bank's policy are directly reflected in deposit rates, explained Dmitry Gritskevich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at the PSB. He noted that back in early April, the yield on deposits from the largest market players dropped to 20%, falling below the key level by 1 percentage point.
In fact, these dynamics have now been translated into the cost of loans, because banks are reducing interest rates on them more slowly than on deposits. Doing this ahead of time is the most dangerous thing for them — the market will definitely not take such steps with the threat of key growth. Loans issued during a period of low interest rates, even after a slight tightening of the PREP, become less profitable due to the rising cost of deposits. Therefore, bank analysts are closely monitoring the macroeconomic situation — loans will not become cheaper without sufficient justification.
Nevertheless, there is no talk of reducing the key rate at the next meeting, which will be held on April 25, experts say. The market expects the Central Bank to soften the signal on Friday, said the head of the expert analytics department "Banks.<url>" by Inna Soldatenkova. They adjust the conditions in advance in order to attract consumer demand earlier than others and not lose the competition.
After all, things are not rosy with lending right now. Loan rates are at a prohibitive level, and demand for them has been falling since October 2024, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, recalled.
How banks mitigate loan conditions
According to the results of the first quarter, the loan portfolio of all banks fell by only 1.5%, the PSB said. And in March, the volume of disbursements even increased compared to February, Izvestia wrote. This means that banks have more resources to attract borrowers. Old loans are being repaid, and financial institutions are releasing reserves from under them, allowing them to more actively attract new customers.
The decrease in the full cost of the loan indicates that loans are becoming more affordable, concluded economist Andrei Barkhota. According to him, this is especially true for "ideal" low-risk clients.
"The minimum rates are offered to borrowers with a high credit rating, stable income and no delinquencies, while the maximum rates are applied to clients with an increased risk of default, for example, if they have other large debts, low income or unstable employment," explained Magomed Gamzaev, director of the credit department at Compare.
The least risky segment for a financial organization is existing customers (preferably those who receive a salary to an account in the organization) and those who have already taken out a loan from them and did not allow delays, said Inna Soldatenkova from <url>. However, even despite the positive dynamics, the rates still remain defensive.
— The policy of banks on granting loans as a whole is as strict as possible this year. According to credit bureaus, banks approved no more than 20% of applications submitted for all types of loans in the first quarter of 2025," said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global.
The expert is sure that the increased requirements for borrowers will remain even after the reduction of the key interest rate. After all, in addition to monetary policy, conditions are affected by the Central Bank's restrictions on issuing loans to borrowers who spend more than half of their income on debt servicing. Because of this, banks have to deny customers financing more often than before.
Slovenia's loans will be tough one way or another, because they are determined not only by the actions of the regulator, but also by the level of creditworthiness of the population, added Yuri Belikov. The higher it is, the more the risks of non-payments increase in the market. According to data for December, the total amount of citizens' debts to banks amounted to a substantial 37 trillion rubles.
However, according to the Central Bank, over the past three months, creditworthiness has been continuously decreasing precisely because of the high key interest rate. This means that the market situation is already changing — sooner or later banks will be able to make borrowed funds more accessible to the public.
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