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- In the raw material balance: the Ministry of Energy lowered the forecast for Urals oil to $56 per barrel
In the raw material balance: the Ministry of Energy lowered the forecast for Urals oil to $56 per barrel
The Ministry of Energy significantly lowered expectations for Urals oil prices to $56 per barrel on average in 2025, according to the ministry's macro forecast (Izvestia has the document). This is due to the escalating trade wars and expectations of a slowdown in global GDP, experts explained. At the same time, the ministry's forecasts for the average dollar exchange rate remained virtually unchanged, despite the significant strengthening of the national currency by April — this year the "American" will trade at 94 rubles/$. Inflation will be 7.6%, and the economy will grow by 2.5%, the Ministry of Economy predicts. How salaries will increase and what will happen to unemployment is in the Izvestia article.
Forecast for oil prices in 2025
The Ministry of Energy has prepared a new draft of scenario conditions for the forecast of socio-economic development for 2026 and the planned 2027/28 year, as well as revised estimates for 2025 (Izvestia has its main indicators). The agency submitted the updated document to the government.
The most significant changes have affected oil prices this year. The ministry predicts an average Urals brand price of $56 per barrel. In the previous version of the document (September 2024), the export price for it was set at $69.7. These indicators are close, but not identical.
According to the expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development, the situation with Urals prices will not get much better in the coming years — Russian oil will trade at an average of $61 in 2026, at $63 in 2027, and at $65 in 2028.
The agency also lowered its forecast for the cost of Brent crude oil to $68 per barrel (against $81.7, which was expected in September). In the next three years, its price will reach a plateau of $72 per barrel.
The deterioration in forecasts is due to the fact that commodity prices have declined sharply in recent months amid the trade wars unleashed by US President Donald Trump. The global economy is expected to slow down, which means that demand for energy resources will fall. In addition, the oil price is affected by the conflict in the Middle East. Judging by the figures, the Ministry of Energy expects that this situation will continue until the end of the year.
— For the budget, a decrease in the Urals price is always not the best news, since the treasury directly depends on the dynamics of oil prices. If the cost of energy resources falls below $60 per barrel, the financial plan may miss a significant portion of oil and gas revenues," explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
What will happen to the dollar exchange rate this year
Despite a significant deterioration in the forecast for oil prices, expectations for the national currency exchange rate have remained virtually unchanged. According to the macro forecast, the dollar will cost 94.3 rubles on average this year. For comparison: in September, the Ministry of Energy predicted an American exchange rate of 96.5 rubles for 2025. They expect that in 2026 it will cost more than a hundred.
At the same time, since the beginning of the year, the ruble has significantly strengthened — by 20%, to 82 rubles/$, but its fluctuations are still possible. According to the representative of the Ministry of Energy, the estimate for 2025 is realistic, but the agency understands that exchange rate fluctuations can be quite high.
The average figure for the year will depend on many factors that have not yet been determined, such as geopolitical news about trade wars and negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States, as well as whether sanctions will be lifted from Russia, explained Associate professor of the basic Department of Financial Control, Analysis and Audit of the Main Control Department of the Moscow Russian University of Economics. G.V. Plekhanova, Yulia Kovalenko. In different months, the "American" can either fall below 80 rubles or rise above 94.
In addition to external factors, there are also internal ones that are designed to support the ruble, in particular, the high key interest rate (currently 21% per annum), which will definitely not be sharply reduced, Natalia Milchakova added.
How the economy will grow in 2025 — forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development
According to the representative of the Ministry of Economy, expectations for economic growth have not changed over the past six months. In 2025, the agency predicts that Russia's GDP will increase by 2.5%. The ministry also slightly changed its expectations for 2026-2028 — 2.4%, 2.8% and 3%, respectively. According to the representative of the ministry, a slight decrease in 2026 is due to the effect of tight monetary policy.
The expected economic growth is much slower than in 2024, when GDP grew by 4.3%. It will slow down due to the high key interest rate and high interest rates on loans - debt financing has become less affordable, especially for small businesses, Natalia Milchakova is sure. In addition, according to her, a reduction in hydrocarbon production, especially oil within OPEC+, will affect the slowdown in growth.
— Lower oil prices will lead to lower budget revenues and sequencing not only government spending, but also investment. As a result, the increase in gross value added in the economy risks decreasing," explained Andrey Barkhota.
In its macro forecast, the Ministry of Energy slightly improved import expectations in 2025 - $323 billion. According to the ministry's estimates, exports will fall to $410 billion ($445 billion was expected in September).
In its draft, the agency also presented expectations for the industrial production index, which this year will amount to 2.6%. In addition, the Ministry of Economy referred to the index of manufacturing production — it will amount to 4.3%.
The focus on indicators related to the real sector of the economy is an attempt to signal that the central problem now is not only inflation, but also a slowdown in economic activity, independent expert Andrei Barkhota pointed out.
How much will prices rise in the coming years
In addition, the ministry has lowered its forecast for price growth. If in the September draft it was expected that by the end of 2025 inflation would be 4.5%, now its level is projected at 7.6%. According to the representative of the Ministry of Economic Development, such an indicator is expected based on the dynamics of the end of last year and the beginning of this year. According to the updated calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development, only next year will inflation fall to the target of 4% and reach a plateau by 2028.
— The decrease in inflation cannot be drastic, because in this case the state must resort to strict regulation of prices for all goods, works and services. The figure of 7.6% is likely to be close to reality by the end of the year," says Yulia Kovalenko from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
How will household incomes grow in 2025
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, real wages (adjusted for inflation) will grow by 6.8% by the end of 2025 (for comparison, in September this figure was estimated at 7%). Further growth will slow down to 3.2% in 2028.
As for the real monetary incomes of the population, they will increase by 6.2% in 2025 (in the previous forecast - 6.1%). Further growth will be more modest: in 2026 - 4.8%, in 2027 — 3.5% and in 2028 — 3.1%. The Ministry of Economic Development estimated the average unemployment rate in 2025 at 2.5% (according to expectations last September — 2.6%).
"The gradual slowdown in nominal wage growth against the background of consistently low unemployment is already a sign of the recovery of the labor market," Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, pointed out.
The shortage of personnel in Russia can be overcome this year, and overemployment will gradually begin to be eliminated, says Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. However, the 2.5% unemployment rate still shows that the labor market is overheated.
— Due to limited financing and sanctions, some enterprises will begin to reduce their previously planned investment projects and, accordingly, partially reduce the number of staff. However, mass unemployment in Russia is not expected — fluctuations in the range of 2.4–2.5% are indeed within the statistical margin of error, the expert believes.
According to Natalia Milchakova, the labor market will balance on its own as soon as wage growth slows down.
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