Rome mediator: Europe is trying to establish contact with the Trump administration
The EU countries are trying to establish contact with the new American administration. On April 17, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with Donald Trump. The abolition of tariffs on industrial goods from the EU and the search for trade compromises are on the agenda. Immediately after Meloni's visit to Rome, the Vice President of the United States, J. D. Vance, will recover. His goal is to build relations with the right—wing forces in Europe. At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy of the American leader Steve Witkoff are visiting Paris, who arrived in the French capital to discuss options for a cease-fire in Ukraine. British Foreign Minister David Lammy also held talks with the Americans. And on Thursday evening, it became known that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had spoken with Marco Rubio.
Georgie Meloni's visit to Washington
Giorgia Meloni, who heads Italy's most right-wing government since Mussolini, continues to strengthen her status as a key negotiator between the European Union and the Trump administration. Her visit to Washington on April 17 was the third face-to-face meeting with the American president in the last six months. If in December 2024 the communication against the background of the opening of Notre Dame Cathedral was symbolic, and the January meeting in Miami was necessary to test the ground, now the parties have moved on to more specific issues.
By the way, Meloni is the only European leader who attended the inauguration of the American president on January 20. The main topic of negotiations with the head of the White House is the trade duties that the United States imposed on European goods under the pretext of "protecting national industry." Although the White House has frozen the imposition of increased tariffs on many countries for 90 days.
A 10% base duty on imports from most countries came into force on April 5. Then the rates rose sharply: China faced duties of 145%, Vietnam — 46%, and the European Union — 20%.
Nevertheless, after the collapse of the United States stock market, Trump suspended the increase in duties for 90 days for 75 countries (including the European Union) that agreed to start negotiations. "The European Union has suspended measures taken in response to unjustified US trade tariffs to allow time and space for negotiations between the EU and the United States," the European Commission said on April 14.
According to Western media reports, Meloni held a series of closed consultations with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen before the visit. This highlights her role not as a "lone player", but rather as a representative of pan-European interests. However, this approach is controversial within the EU. French Industry Minister Marc Ferracci has openly stated that Rome's activity could "undermine the unity of the EU" if Italy starts lobbying for bilateral agreements bypassing Brussels. Nevertheless, official Paris, like Berlin, remains restrained for the time being. "Italy is acting in a spirit of solidarity with the EU," French government spokeswoman Sophie Primas said, trying to smooth over the contradictions.
For Trump, Meloni is the perfect conversationalist. She represents a center-right bloc that criticizes the "federalization of the EU," but does not fall into the radicalism attributed to Viktor Orban. This allows Washington to see her as a mediator, able to convey to Brussels the idea of the need for concessions. Italy, the third largest exporter to the United States among EU countries, is particularly vulnerable to a trade war: the European Parliament estimates that escalating tariffs could cost the European Union up to $1 trillion by 2028. Rome is proposing the mutual abolition of duties on industrial goods, but Washington has already rejected a similar EU initiative, calling it insufficiently ambitious.
Meloni could have expanded the agenda. In addition to trade, an increase in Italian defense spending was discussed. Trump traditionally puts pressure on NATO allies, while at the same time he said at the meeting that he considered Rome's promise to raise national defense spending to 2% of GDP insufficient. In addition, the situation in the Middle East and relations with China were probably discussed. Beijing, according to the Financial Times, expects to deepen economic ties with the EU amid the conflict with the United States. Chinese delegations are traveling through European capitals, offering investments, and the official authorities of the republic are demanding that Washington "stop blackmail." Meloni, apparently, is trying to use this factor as leverage: if the United States does not reduce duties, the EU may reorient itself to China.
Meloni's visit is an indicator that the European Union has not chosen an approach to it over the past few months after the arrival of the new American administration, said Sergey Shein, senior researcher at the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics.
— Meloni works closely with Ursula von der Leyen. The issue of duties is something that primarily concerns the head of the European Commission. But she herself, apparently, is not very pleasant to Trump. Meloni is really the best option for establishing a dialogue on tariffs here. She's right-wing and from the mainstream. She is not Macron or Scholz, who are very ideologically different from Trump. The likely outcome of the dialogue is not to escalate further. I think the current 10% duties will remain in place. But she will try to remove the trade war with the EU from the agenda," Sergei Shein told Izvestia.
But even a partial success for Meloni will depend on whether she succeeds in convincing Trump to view the EU as a partner rather than a competitor. In the meantime, the White House's rhetoric remains harsh.
Immediately after the Italian Prime Minister's visit, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance will leave for Rome for the Easter holidays. The possible purpose of his visit is to form Trump's real allies in Europe from the European far—right, Sergei Shein believes. According to the expert, the right is now strong in Europe one way or another, despite the fact that "the mainstream does everything it can to keep them out of power."
"The Trump administration has an interest in building a dialogue with such an "opposition" in the hope that it will be the right bet to communicate with the Europeans," he said.
Europe and the United States are discussing the Ukrainian settlement
While Meloni is in Washington, an equally significant dialogue is unfolding in Paris. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in the French capital to discuss the Ukrainian conflict. They were joined by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, as well as the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak. Formally, we are talking about a "cease-fire," but the details point to more ambitious plans.
"The American side wants to talk about the initiative of the coalition of the willing to send peacekeepers to Ukraine," says Sergey Shein. — It is not clear whether we are talking about the post-war deployment of troops or during the conflict. The United States cannot provide guarantees for this story. Such conclusions can be drawn based on the latest rhetoric. The EU will have to focus on understanding its real capabilities.
Moscow has repeatedly spoken about the inadmissibility of sending contingents from Western countries. "The deployment of NATO peacekeepers in the conflict zone is unacceptable and will be regarded as an escalation," the Russian Foreign Ministry said. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president, added that the Kremlin "expects the Europeans to focus on a peaceful settlement, but so far sees only support for the war." On the evening of April 17, it became known that Sergey Lavrov had spoken with Marco Rubio. The Russian Foreign Minister confirmed that Moscow is ready to continue working together with its American colleagues to reliably eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis.
However, there is no unity among the Europeans themselves. Le Monde writes that Paris and London are arguing about the format of assistance to Kiev: France insists on the deployment of ground forces, and the United Kingdom insists on the protection of airspace. At the same time, the financing of these plans rests on the issue of reducing the American military presence in Europe, which Trump has been seeking for a long time. Germany's position also adds tension to the allies: Berlin, despite pressure, has not yet transferred Taurus missiles to Ukraine, fearing attacks on Russian territory. Although the future Chancellor Friedrich Merz may have other plans, given that he recently did not rule out the possibility of transferring long-range missiles to Kiev. However, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said that these missiles "will not change the situation at the front," and artillery shells play a crucial role. One way or another, Moscow will regard the attack by German Taurus missiles on Russian targets as Germany's participation in the conflict in Ukraine, said Maria Zakharova, an official representative of the ministry.
The outcome of these negotiations will certainly be of great importance for the future settlement. Washington may try to put pressure on the allies and demand that they reduce their unfriendly rhetoric against Moscow in order to increase the chance of ending the Ukrainian conflict. Nevertheless, so far the positions of Washington, Paris, London and the EU as a whole are very different. The United States has intensified diplomatic dialogue with Russia, and Europe continues to talk about the need to continue military support for Ukraine.
In this case, one should not underestimate the role of Meloni's trip to the United States, which could try to promote the current "American approach" to the settlement among European colleagues, which, at least, consists in dialogue with all parties, which the former Joe Biden administration had not done before. There are already countries in the EU that adhere to this position — Hungary and Slovakia — but their weight within the union is downplayed by Brussels. The situation with Rome is different. Although its weight in European affairs, of course, cannot be compared with the positions of Germany or France, nevertheless, Italy is the third largest economy in the eurozone.
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