The dollar may fall in price to 80 rubles, but this will not last very long, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. At the auction on March 17, amid news about the upcoming conversation between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States, the Russian currency strengthened to its highest values since June 2024. The course now strongly depends on the agenda, and it will follow it. However, so far the situation in the Russian economy supports the strengthening of the national currency, but the fundamental factors — a reduction in imports and an increase in oil revenues — are unlikely to persist for a long time. When the ruble risks weakening again — in the Izvestia article.
Dollar-ruble exchange rate: March 2025
The dollar exchange rate at the auction on March 17 sank below 82 rubles for the first time since June 2024. The ruble also strengthened against other currencies, to 91.5 per euro and 11.5 per yuan. His position has noticeably strengthened against the background of news about the upcoming conversation between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, which is expected to take place on March 18.
The value of the ruble began to rise in principle after the very first news about the possibility of de—escalation of the Ukrainian conflict - back in late January, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In fact, the exchange rate of the national currency is now tied to the news agenda and strongly depends on it.
— The geopolitical detente is attracting investors to Russian assets, which is why the influx of foreign money into the market has increased. The more they are, the cheaper they are relative to the ruble," explained Natalia Pyrieva, a leading analyst at Digital Broker.
Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has strengthened by more than 25%, and this trend can be called very serious, said economist Andrei Barkhota. Such jumps indicate the instability of the financial market and its instability in the face of external factors.
It is also important to understand that the fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate depend on the technical indicators that are displayed on the charts and which traders are guided by, Finam said. Usually, investors stop selling an asset if its price drops to a psychologically significant level, after which they start buying again, and the price of it goes up.
— In the case of the dollar, such a milestone will be at the level of 80-82 rubles — when it reaches this mark, the ruble will stop strengthening, — says Alexander Potavin, analyst at Finam Financial Group.
However, one should not rule out a decline in the dollar exchange rate to around 80 rubles on a wave of euphoria due to positive news on the Ukrainian conflict, the expert added. Nevertheless, this jump will be short—term - so far there are no strong prerequisites for such a strong strengthening of the national currency.
Why is the ruble growing
In addition to the news background, there are also fundamental reasons for strengthening the ruble. In particular, the Central Bank is gradually improving its estimates of the balance of payments, Digital Broker recalled. This means that the country is exporting more and importing less and less — because of this, the inflow of currency into the Russian Federation is higher than the outflow.
In addition, in the period from March 7 to April 4, the volume of yuan sales by the Russian authorities increased to the equivalent of 5.96 billion rubles per day, Finam added. This ensures a stable inflow of foreign currency to the Russian market.
— As a result, the volume of currency supply remains high with moderately weak demand. Combined with a positive news background, this contributes to the strengthening of the ruble," concluded Natalia Pyrieva from Digital Broker.
Towards the end of the month, the influx of foreign money will increase further before the tax period, Finam added. Exporters will sell foreign currency earnings in Russia, which will further support the ruble.
Also, the attractiveness of the national currency is supported by still high yields on ruble deposits — according to Izvestia, they exceed 20% for periods from three to 12 months. This is facilitated by the record high key rate of 21%. People do not buy dollars for savings, but on the contrary, they are sold to put them in the bank at a favorable interest rate.
Dollar exchange rate forecast
Nevertheless, the de-escalation of the conflict is unlikely to significantly change the economic situation in the country, Finam believes. Even if some restrictions are lifted, oil revenues are unlikely to grow.: Russia is already selling energy resources at the limit of OPEC+ quotas, and prices on the world market can always fall.
The influx of foreign capital is also questionable: this requires the lifting of sanctions, the resumption of operations with the dollar and euro and the restoration of SWIFT, but this is not yet expected.
For a sustainable inflow of investments, it is necessary to completely remove barriers to capital movement, which is also unlikely to happen in the near future, Finam added. An increase in non-oil and gas exports (metals, coal, fertilizers) could help. But loosening controls on foreign trade can work in the opposite direction and lead to an outflow of capital from the country amid rising imports.
The trend towards the strengthening of the ruble will not last long, they fear in the "Digital broker". Imports from the Russian Federation will begin to recover after a seasonal weakening in January–February, which will increase the outflow of currency from the Russian Federation. In addition, Brent prices have decreased by more than 10% since the beginning of the year (while Russian hydrocarbons are now being sold at a discount), which may further reduce the income of exporters. In the near future, the ruble will resume its movement to the level of 90 per dollar, the company's experts believe.
At the same time, the strengthening of the ruble only fuels the activity of importers, since a strong national currency makes their activities more profitable, said economist Andrei Barkhota. Cutting costs will allow them to lower the prices of their goods and services — this should slow down inflation. However, such changes usually occur with a delay of 2-4 months, the expert noted.
However, the pace of price growth in Russia is already slowing down, recalled Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. According to Rosstat, last week they increased by only 0.11%, whereas a month ago the figure was twice as high. The sooner inflation slows down, the sooner the Central Bank will start lowering the key rate, which can also support the Russian market, and with it the ruble exchange rate.
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