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- Three and a bomb: why does the United States need Russia's mediation in the nuclear deal with Iran
Three and a bomb: why does the United States need Russia's mediation in the nuclear deal with Iran
Moscow does not deny discussing with the United States potential assistance to Washington in finding common ground with Tehran and is ready to do everything possible to resolve the issue of the Iranian nuclear dossier diplomatically. This was stated by Russian officials. Izvestia found out how the positions of the parties have changed since 2017, when the United States destroyed the agreements already reached, and what are the prospects for resuming the agreement.
Intermediary — Russia
The issue of the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) returned to the agenda almost immediately after the inauguration of Donald Trump. Meanwhile, informal contacts between Tehran and European capitals took place before this event.However, Western countries have not demonstrated their willingness to resume negotiations, said Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna.
As Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov later said, the Iranian nuclear deal was also the subject of discussion at the talks in Riyadh on February 18. According to him, the parties agreed to hold a separate meeting on this issue.
Riyadh
In turn, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of Russia, assured of Russia's readiness to facilitate the negotiations as a whole. "Russia, being an ally and partner of Iran, is ready to do everything possible to facilitate this process."," he told the Zvezda TV channel.
The JCPOA was discussed during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Tehran, as reported in a statement from the Ministry.
"We talked a lot about the situation around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian Nuclear Program.We are convinced that the resource of diplomacy remains, it should not be neglected. It is necessary to use it as effectively as possible without any threats or hints of the possibility of some forceful solutions. We are determined to continue searching for acceptable solutions to the current situation, created not by Iran, but by our Western colleagues," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
The history of the issue and the position of the United States
Designed for 10 years, the implementation of the JCPOA was supposed, on the one hand, to resolve the issue of the Iranian nuclear program, on the other, to ensure the lifting of sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic. The agreement was approved by the UN Security Council resolution 2231 in 2015. However, two years later, it was actually unilaterally destroyed. Donald Trump essentially declared it inconsistent with the national interests of the United States.
The situation has changed many times since then. The Biden administration was making efforts to restore the deal, while relations between Iran and Israel were on the verge of an open military conflict: West Jerusalem began threatening to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities.
President Donald Trump speaks at a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on March 4, 2025 in Washington
According to experts, Trump's second-term approach to this problem has not yet been determined, but it is likely to differ significantly from the previous one. The 47th president of the United States, according to Western media, is determined to reach certain agreements. At the same time, however, he enters into negotiations in a classic style for himself — starting with pressure.
The problem for Washington is that its military and political resources in the region have been significantly depleted recently and are likely to be further optimized in accordance with Trump's overall geopolitical strategy. The operation "Guardian of Prosperity" against the pro-Iranian Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) ended in nothing. By the end of 2025, a complete or partial withdrawal of American troops from Syria and Iraq is becoming increasingly likely. Thus, about 35,000 American troops remain in the entire Middle East.
On the other hand, in the USA it preserves (if not strengthens) The Israeli lobby is active, traditionally advocating maximum pressure on Tehran. Actually, this is where Trump began moving towards negotiations. On February 4, he signed a corresponding decree aimed at a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports.
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, USA, February 4, 2025
Israel is unlikely to support any deal aimed at reducing tensions between the United States and Iran, according to Grigory Lukyanov, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the National University of Israel.
— The Israeli military and political leadership will make efforts to prevent any agreements. Being interested in creating instability both around and inside Iran, it will continue to strive to overthrow the existing political system in the Islamic Republic, the expert emphasizes.
Iran's position
On January 21, Tehran announced its readiness to resume negotiations on the JCPOA. The republic's Foreign Ministry stressed that they see "opportunities for dialogue and understanding." But after Trump's decisions outlined above, the Iranian side indicated that it did not intend to negotiate under pressure and threats. "There is currently no possibility for a direct dialogue between us and the United States on the issue of the nuclear program," Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said at a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart on February 25.
At the same time, both Tehran's position and its goals are quite obvious, orientalist Tural Kerimov believes. The first part is the lifting of all economic sanctions that were renewed during Trump's first term. They relate to energy, investment agreements, and transport. Further, there is a movement towards the complete abolition of restrictions that were introduced during the time of Bush Jr.
— The second part relates to security issues, and to be more precise, the plans of the current Israeli government to force Iran to curtail its nuclear program. Such security guarantees can be provided by the United States, because without military support, Israel will quickly cease to be a serious player. Therefore, it is important for Tehran to speak directly," Kerimov emphasizes.
The expert notes that since 2017, the situation has changed not only for the United States, but also for Iran, and also in a negative direction. Therefore, the issue of the nuclear deal is only part of the overall context that the Islamic Republic is interested in shaping.
— The Middle East, according to Iran, needs a new security configuration.A new conflict, which remains highly likely, will have disastrous consequences for everyone. In other words, the complex of issues goes beyond the scope of the nuclear program alone," the Izvestia interlocutor summarizes.
Military exercises along the northeastern borders, Northeast, Iran
Orientalist Kirill Semenov holds a similar point of view. The expert notes that Washington is much more concerned about Tehran's regional strategy in the current situation than solely about its nuclear program.
— These negotiations have a prospect, and the nuclear program is not the main element. In general, we are talking about Iran's plans in the region, mainly Tehran's support for its proxy forces, but not only. The nuclear program simply provided an excuse to push sanctions through the UN. Trump is not particularly interested in the political regime in Iran, it is important for him to reduce its activity," the expert noted.
In the current situation, Russian mediation may prove to be an extremely important factor in achieving a settlement, and both sides recognize this fact. In addition, the balance of power that has changed recently in the Middle East also affects the shape of the potential negotiation process, Kirill Semenov admits.
— Russia has the negotiating potential and the opportunity to bring the parties closer together. Perhaps it makes sense to join forces with regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia, which has also repeatedly spoken out in favor of a settlement," the Izvestia interlocutor notes.
The mediation role of Saudi Arabia, with active Russian assistance, has a chance to be effective in terms of the final outcome of the negotiations, Grigory Lukyanov points out.
— Riyadh is named by Trump among the main partners of the United States. At the same time, he is not interested in further escalation in Iranian-Israeli relations and regional turbulence, and therefore can use the available tools to build a new regional security order. In this context, Russia's role as a co-sponsor of a potential deal may serve to strengthen the agreements reached," comments Grigory Lukyanov.
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