They did not come out in formation: Europe is not ready for the introduction of universal military service

After the US decision to reduce its involvement in European security, the countries of the Old World, including Germany, increasingly began to talk about the resumption of universal military conscription. However, as Gerold Otten, a member of the Bundestag defense committee, told Izvestia, one desire is not enough — infrastructure is needed. Moreover, the process of returning to compulsory service will take, according to him, at least two years and will cost about € 7 billion. The expert community notes that Europe is simply unable to multiply the number of military personnel in the current situation, and its population is not eager to take up arms and defend their countries. But Brussels has already announced the beginning of the "era of rearmament," which will require enormous costs from it.

In Germany, they urge to increase the number of the Bundeswehr

Against the background of weakening US military support for Ukraine and talk of a growing Russian "threat" in Europe, they are calling for the resumption of universal military service. Florian Hahn of the Christian Social Union (CSU), which won the Bundestag elections, called for the restoration of compulsory military service in Germany. The draft was suspended in 2011 by a decision of the majority of members of the German parliament. Accordingly, it can also be returned through voting. However, on March 5, the country's Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, rejected the possibility of resuming military service in 2025, because there are not enough barracks or data on conscripts over the past ten years.

At the same time, the CSU complains about a significant shortage in the ranks of the armed forces and points out that instead of 180,000 soldiers, the Bundeswehr should have 270 thousand. At the moment, the number of military personnel does not even reach the target 185 thousand. At the same time, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Green Party believe that such a significant increase in the number of armed forces cannot be implemented in practice due to the lack of infrastructure, equipment and instructors.

A transition to military service in Germany is quite possible, says Gerold Otten, a member of the Bundestag defense committee. At the same time, the politician emphasizes that it is unlikely to happen in the coming months.

— It may take at least two years," he told Izvestia. — There is no complete infrastructure for this. Along with the abolition of conscription, the entire military service was abolished.

According to him, the return of compulsory military service may cost the budget about €6-7 billion.Friedrich Merz, who is likely to become federal chancellor instead of Olaf Scholz, is leaning towards the Swedish model. In this country, people of military age are required to fill out a questionnaire and undergo a medical examination. However, the summonses come only to those who are really needed by the armed forces. In Germany, the only requirement for people of military age is to fill out a questionnaire to assess their motivation and abilities. Then, if they express a desire, they will be able to serve from six to 23 months in the Bundeswehr.

Compulsory military conscription is currently in effect in 12 European countries: Austria, Greece, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Croatia, Switzerland, Sweden, Estonia and Cyprus. Latvia returned conscription to the army in 2023. Lithuania and Sweden followed suit, while in Norway, Finland and Estonia conscription has remained in force since the Cold War. It was the heads of Latvia and Estonia who called on European NATO members in March 2024 to consider the return of compulsory conscription. Croatia responded to it, resuming the call on January 1, 2025. However, the service life does not exceed two months. There is a call in Turkey, which is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.

In France and the United Kingdom— the two countries where there is the most talk about the need to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, compulsory military service has been abolished for a long time. However, even there, from time to time, the question of her return comes up. Against the background of the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, the head of the Fifth Republic, Emmanuel Macron, said that the resumption of compulsory military service "will create a huge burden on the armed forces." However, according to him, "a huge task" is to "prepare young people to face the threat." A similar call was made in the UK by a member of the Labour Party, Pollet Hamilton, saying that it was time for young Britons to stop "burying their heads in the sand" when there was a "threat" to the borders of the United Kingdom.

The issue of returning to military service is also being raised in Belgium, which decided to suspend it in 1992. At the end of February, the country's new defense minister, Theo Franken, mentioned the idea of introducing voluntary military service following the example of the Bundeswehr. This idea appears in the plan of the new government coalition that recently came to power.

As in Germany, the Belgian armed forces no longer have the infrastructure to receive conscripts. Hence Franken's plan. According to him, "all boys and girls aged 18 will receive a letter offering to volunteer for a year of military service."

The Bundeswehr: Germany is building up its military presence in Lithuania

Vilnius prepares to receive German army brigade

The European Union is preparing to multiply defense spending

At the same time, the EU is discussing the idea of creating a pan-European army. According to Politico, members of the European Parliament from the Volt party sent a nine-point plan to the leaders of the EU countries on the eve of the summit, which will be held on March 6, including the creation of a pan-European army, the inclusion of community powers in the field of defense in international treaties and the deprivation of Hungary's voting rights. In general, all this fits into the ambitious plan of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for the rearmament of Europe in the amount of € 800 billion. It involves, among other things, relaxing the budget rules in force in the European Union, allocating additional loans and attracting private capital.

Emmanuel Macron's address to the nation, delivered on the evening of March 5, was a vivid illustration of Europe's course towards militarization. The French president again mentioned the "Russian threat" to the Europeans. He opposed the truce in Ukraine, stressing that peace "cannot be built at any cost and under Russian dictate." At the same time, France, in his opinion, has the most effective army in Europe. Moreover, Paris is ready to start a discussion about using the French "nuclear umbrella" to protect the entire EU.

—Military conscription is within the competence of the member states,— a representative of the European Commission told Izvestia, adding that the von der Leyen plan "will better prepare the European Union for future challenges."

Europe is looking for ways to regain not so much strategic autonomy as potential that Russia and the United States will consider, but it will be difficult for EU countries to develop a unified approach and implement their plans to increase the size of their armed forces, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security and co-founder of the Watfor project said in an interview with Izvestia." Dmitry Stefanovich.

— For many years, no one in the EU has invested in maintaining what they were not going to apply. The unused potential dies by itself. It is impossible that, at the wave of a magic wand, several conscription suddenly occurred and the number of armed forces and the regular reserve increased by a multiple. This is a very long process, which is connected not only with the desire of people to join the service, but also with the opportunity to receive, place and train them there," he said.It is worth recalling that back in the spring of 2022, Brussels announced the formation of the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity. They are due to be commissioned in 2025, which will allow up to 5,000 soldiers to be deployed at any time, capable of "responding to any crisis outside the EU borders."

The Europeans' unwillingness to fight should not be discounted either. A July Gallup poll showed that 32% of the union's citizens are ready to defend their country in the event of war.

— For example, Sweden's strategic culture is characterized by the concept of "total defense", which presupposes the willingness of all sectors of society to participate in the defense of the country together with the armed forces. Finland has a similar concept of "comprehensive security," which involves close cooperation between military and civilian agencies, business and society in the event of a crisis. However, this cannot be said about all European countries. Even if some countries support an increase in defense spending, this does not mean that a large part of their population is ready to take up arms," Nikita Lipunov, a junior researcher at MGIMO, told Izvestia.

The expert is confident that the idea of a pan-European army is unlikely to find support in all EU countries. In particular, Denmark, Finland and Sweden rely primarily on NATO's security guarantees and close ties with the United States in terms of defense. Although their leadership pays lip service to the strategic autonomy of Europe, this will be difficult to implement in the near future.