Trump's tariff war: what consequences await the global economy

On March 4, a sharp increase in US import duties on China, Canada and Mexico, which was previously announced by President Donald Trump, came into force. For Mexico and Canada, they will amount to 25%, and for China — 20%.The American president signed a decree on raising tariffs on goods from neighboring countries in early February 2025, but then Mexico City and Ottawa were able to get a month's delay. Tariffs for China have doubled, by another 10% compared to the previously set 10%. The next step, Trump promised to slap duties on the EU. Izvestia investigated how the innovations would affect the global economy and, in particular, Russia.

New US duties and tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico

Donald Trump is reshaping the country's trade policy, using tariffs as an economic tool. Speaking to reporters at the White House on March 3, Trump said the United States needed to take trade measures against its continental neighbors. He also stressed that Canada has allowed the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

"The flow of contraband drugs such as fentanyl into the United States through illegal distribution networks has led to a national emergency, including a public health crisis," Trump said in an official statement.

Reaction of Canada and Mexico to the introduction of new duties and tariffs

Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said Canada is ready to take a package of retaliatory measures to immediately deal an economic blow to Trump's policies. The Foreign Minister noted that the tariffs announced by the White House pose an existential threat to the Canadian economy, but Ottawa is ready for any development of the situation.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also href="https://iz.ru/1847749/2025-03-03/triudo-predupredil-ssha-ob-otvetnykh-merakh-v-sluchae-poshlin-protiv-kanady">заявил on the introduction of retaliatory import duties against the United States.

"If duties are imposed on Tuesday (March 4, — Ed.) then we are ready to give a strong, unambiguous and proportionate response, as Canadians expect it," he said at the summit in London, broadcast by CPAC.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday, March 3, that the administration has a plan to respond to U.S. tariffs, the Associated Press reports. However, she did not provide details of Mexico City's economic response.

China's reaction to the US duties

A representative of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that the country is ready to take retaliatory steps to protect its legitimate rights and interests. Following this, Beijing initiated a new lawsuit with the World Trade Organization (WTO), using the dispute settlement mechanism. Earlier, in early February, China had already applied to the WTO in connection with the Trump administration's decision to impose 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese exports.

"What the American side has done is a typical act of unilateral actions and intimidation that ignores the facts and rules of international trade, as well as the voices of all parties," said a representative of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

In response to Donald Trump's actions, China increased tariffs on agricultural imports from the United States, imposing additional duties in the range of 10-15%. This was announced by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports.

In particular, a 15% tariff is imposed on imports of chicken, wheat, corn and cotton from the United States, while soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and dairy products are subject to 10% duties.

In addition, Beijing has included 15 American companies in the export control list, citing the need to protect national interests and security. This list includes Leidos, Gibbs & Cox, IP Video Market Info, Sourcemap, Skydio, Rapid Flight, Red Six Solutions, Shield AI, HavocAI, Neros Technologies, Group W, Aerkomm, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems and AeroVironment, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

China calls on the United States to respect the rights and interests of other countries and immediately reverse its unreasonable and unjustified unilateral tariff measures that harm others without benefiting themselves.

"China hopes that the United States will consider and resolve issues objectively and rationally, and return to the right path as soon as possible to properly resolve differences through equal dialogue," concluded a representative of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

It should be noted that by the end of 2024, the trade turnover between China and the United States increased by 3.7% and reached $688.28 billion. America has retained its status as China's largest trading partner.

The impact of new US tariffs and duties on the global economy

US duties against Canada, China and Mexico may raise gold prices above $3,000 per ounce this year. Interviewed by Izvestia experts agree that growth will continue and reach $3.2 thousand

The tariffs imposed by Trump limit global trade relations in the interests of the United States, Mikhail Gordienko, Professor of the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, emphasized in an interview with the publication. At the same time, the Trump administration is interested in creating protective barriers — this is necessary to restore the country's industrial potential. In part, this process has already begun, he explained.

In addition, it is important for the American leader to show himself active on the foreign policy track, that he has actively taken up the task of leveling the trade deficit problem, said Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of Political Theory at the MGIMO Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

Import duties will have a restraining effect on economic growth in countries for which exports to the United States play a significant role in the trade balance, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. This will primarily affect Canada and Mexico, as the American market accounts for 77 to 80% of their total foreign supplies. Currently, the volume of trade between the United States and these countries reaches approximately $600 billion and $800 billion, respectively.

The impact of new US tariffs and duties on Russia

On February 27, Trump announced that he was preparing similar 25% duties for goods from the EU and claimed that this bloc of European countries was "created in order to cheat the United States." The European Union said it would respond "firmly and immediately" to the "unjustified" trade barriers, signaling its readiness to take retaliatory measures against the fees.

Commenting on the possible impact of high duties on the Russian economy, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia and the United States have the lowest possible trade turnover, which means they cannot have a noticeable negative impact.

"Russia would not like to see trade wars in the world, because it affects all countries. However, Moscow focuses primarily on friendly countries, the BRICS countries, and anyone who is interested in trading with Russia," Peskov said.

Prior to that, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that European countries themselves were to blame for the complications in their relations with the United States.

Experts also believe that the next stage of global trade conflicts will have only a minor and indirect impact on Russia. On the one hand, a possible slowdown in production in various countries will lead to lower prices for raw materials, which may reduce Russia's income from energy exports. On the other hand, the complication of Chinese supplies to the United States may prompt Beijing to seek alternative markets, including Russia, which will create the opportunity to import goods at more attractive prices.

Earlier, Izvestia explained why the USA interested in oil from Russia.