Shine on bills: US tariffs will drive up gold prices above $3,000 per ounce

US duties against Canada, China and Mexico may raise gold prices above $3,000 per ounce this year, Izvestia found out after interviewing analysts. Starting from March 4, US President Donald Trump is expected to impose tariffs of 25% against all imported products from neighboring countries, as well as 10% surcharges on Chinese goods. A new round of trade wars is motivating central banks and investors around the world to invest in gold as a protective asset. What this means for global markets is in the Izvestia article.

What new US duties will take effect on March 4

On March 4, US import duties against Canada and Mexico, which Donald Trump announced earlier, should begin to take effect, and an additional surcharge will be introduced for China — China has already received its 10%. Back in early February, the American president signed a decree on duties of 25% on goods imported from neighboring countries. However, then Mexico City and Ottawa managed to discuss the situation by phone and suspend the measures for one month.

At the end of February, the US president confirmed his intention to impose duties on goods from Canada and Mexico. Explaining this decision, he stressed that drugs continue to come from these countries in very large and unacceptable quantities. Most of them are produced and supplied by China, which is why additional tariffs of 10% will be imposed on Beijing, the American leader said. However, a little later, the Secretary of Commerce of the United States, Howard Lutnik, added that the tariffs would indeed take effect on Tuesday, but their level had not yet been fully determined.

However, in early February, it was decided to postpone the introduction of measures less than a day before they were supposed to take effect. Therefore, there is a possibility that some of the duties will be postponed again, or their effect will be suspended in the foreseeable future, for example, after additional concessions, said Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of Political Theory at MGIMO, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia. It is significant that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to speak on March 3. Perhaps important statements will be made during it.

Gold prices in 2025: forecast

The import duties that US President Donald Trump intends to impose on Mexico City, Ottawa and Beijing from March 4 will lead to an increase in gold prices above $3 thousand per ounce According to four out of five experts interviewed by Izvestia. Moreover, one of the analysts admitted that growth will continue this year and reach the mark of $3.2 thousand

— Since the beginning of 2025, the world price of gold has already increased by almost 10% — on March 3, it is trading around $2,880 per ounce. This is a very high growth rate in two months, compared with the average in 2012-2021 (at that time, an increase of 5% per year was considered high)," said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

According to her, this is due to increased uncertainty in the global economy, after President Trump announced the imposition of duties on almost all imports that go to the United States from other countries. For example, on February 10, the exchange price of an ounce of gold exceeded the $2.9 thousand mark after announcing plans to impose 25 percent duties on aluminum and steel imports. And on February 20, the value of the metal rose to $2.97 thousand, then rolled back a little.

Market participants have long considered gold as a kind of protective asset, said independent expert Andrey Barkhota. He explained: investments in this metal have high liquidity in the conditions of armed and economic disasters.

— In an effort to protect themselves, investors will soon shift their focus to cryptocurrency and gold. The second option looks more reliable, because central bank funds invest reserve currencies here. Therefore, gold is a safe haven in conditions of economic uncertainty," says Alexander Abramov, Head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Presidential Academy.

According to Natalia Milchakova, the dollar and gold are direct competitors as a means of saving. The American national currency may fall due to rising inflation, while gold, on the contrary, will strengthen. In addition, when markets are stormy and economic growth in the United States is difficult to predict, large investors and central banks prefer gold to American government debt — as a result, this asset grows even faster.

How the introduction of tariffs will affect the global economy

Tariffs limit global trade relations in the interests of the United States, emphasized Mikhail Gordienko, Professor of the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. The Trump administration is interested in creating protective barriers to restore the country's industrial potential. In part, this process has already begun, he explained.

In addition, it is important for the American leader to show himself active on the foreign policy track, that he has actively taken up the task of leveling the problem of the trade deficit, said Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

At the same time, import duties will slow down growth in all countries with a significant share of exports to the United States in the trade balance, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. We are talking primarily about Canada and Mexico — their shipments to the United States amount to 77-80% of the total sales markets. Now America's mutual trade with these countries составляет approximately $600 billion and $800 billion, respectively.

The most severe measures may affect Mexico, because the US administration wants much more from this country than from others, says Ivana Loshkareva from MGIMO. We are talking about issues related to migrants and the fight against drug cartels.

In turn, Natalia Milchakova continued, the share of the United States in China's total exports is no more than 20%. To a greater extent, China will be affected by US sanctions against the supply of high-tech products to China, in particular, chips.

At the same time, a new round of global trade wars will affect Russia weakly and indirectly. On the one hand, production around the world may slow down, then prices for raw materials will go down, and Russia's revenues from the sale of energy resources will decrease. On the other hand, due to the fact that China's supplies to the United States will become more complicated, it may look for sales markets with us and import products at more favorable prices.