Union under construction: Armenia may consider EU accession law again

In early March, the Armenian parliament may consider in the second reading a bill on the beginning of the process of joining the European Union, Izvestia was informed there. On February 12, the legislature adopted the document in the first reading. Nevertheless, the decision on the country's accession to the EU will be made through a national referendum, and the document itself is demonstrative. In addition, Yerevan still does not intend to leave the EAEU, although Moscow has repeatedly warned that it would be impossible to sit on two chairs. However, against the background of the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, the positions of Brussels are significantly weakening, which the Armenian authorities may not want to notice yet, experts say. Whether Yerevan's policy can change in the new realities is in the Izvestia article.

Armenia is preparing to join the EU

The Armenian parliament plans to consider the draft law on the beginning of the EU accession process in the second reading in early March, Hayk Mamidzhanyan, head of the I Have the Honor faction, told Izvestia.

— At the moment, most likely, it is (consideration of the bill. — "Izvestia".) It will be at the next plenary session, next week. But it depends on the decision of the ruling majority," he said.

According to Izvestia, this issue may be considered on March 3-4. Nevertheless, one of the sources claims that a specific date has not yet been agreed, and the information about holding a meeting on these days is not true.On January 9, the Armenian government approved a draft decision on the start of the EU accession process. After that, on February 12, the document was adopted in the first reading by the Parliament of the republic. He was supported by 63 deputies, seven opposed. Of the three "for" factions, only representatives of the ruling one, the Civil Contract, voted. The opposition Armenia faction did not participate in the voting, while the other one, I have the Honor, opposed it.

This document should not be interpreted as an application for immediate membership in the European Union. Its main purpose is to indicate Armenia's readiness to work towards rapprochement with the EU. The decision on the country's accession to the union must be made through a national referendum.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stressed that the country is comfortable in the EAEU, but a significant part of the people, according to him, want to join the EU. As a result, the republic will have to make a choice. "Hypothetically speaking, it is simply impossible to be members of two different organizations. There is one customs space here, there is one zone of free movement of goods and services, people and capital, there are different norms," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on January 9. At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly stressed that joining the EU is a sovereign decision of a country.

However, it is worth considering that the process of joining the European Union for Armenia can be very thorny. And some experts believe that the integration of Yerevan is an unrealistic initiative. For example, Turkey has been waiting to join the EU since 1999. In addition, for example, countries such as North Macedonia, Montenegro or Serbia are applying for accession — they are much more closely connected with the European space than Armenia. It is also worth considering the factor of Azerbaijan, which cooperates with EU countries, including in the energy sector. Against this background, Brussels may be afraid of aggravating relations with Baku due to the difficult Armenian-Azerbaijani contacts. After all, Armenia's inclusion in the EU is unlikely to allow the union to remain neutral.

The current rapprochement between Armenia and the EU is taking place against the background of the complication of relations between Yerevan and Moscow, after Azerbaijan completely took control of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia's relations with the CSTO have cooled significantly, and in February 2024, it completely froze its participation in the organization, as well as refused to pay the membership fee. The Russian Federation, however, rejects any accusations of inaction by the CSTO, since collective defense mechanisms could not be used to resolve this conflict from the point of view of international law.

What can affect Yerevan's position

In February 2024, in parallel with Yerevan's freezing of participation in the CSTO, Armenia and the EU decided to work on an ambitious expansion of bilateral cooperation. And on January 13, 2025, Brussels decided to start a dialogue with Yerevan on visa facilitation. The European Peace Foundation also announced that it would provide €10 million in aid to Armenia.

But lately, Europe has been puzzled by slightly different issues. Brussels' relations with the United States are heating up, as the EU does not welcome Washington's steps aimed at resolving the Ukrainian crisis. They have repeatedly expressed concerns that the dialogue could take place without them. Europe is concerned about its future: on February 17 and 18, representatives of several countries gathered in Paris to discuss the region's security and prospects for peace in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the new US administration has begun to engage in dialogue with the Russian side. On February 12, Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin. This was the first conversation between the leaders in exactly three years — the last time Putin spoke with Joe Biden was on February 12, 2022. On February 18, the first face-to-face meeting of the Russian and American delegations in several years took place in Riyadh. And on February 27, negotiations between representatives of the Russian Federation and the United States were held in Istanbul again.

Yerevan had previously adopted a policy of rapprochement with Washington. On January 14, the United States and Armenia signed a charter on strategic partnership, after which the republic became the only country in the South Caucasus region with which the United States would have such an agreement. In November, the United States suspended its strategic dialogue with Georgia.

But Washington is not going to make serious commitments to Yerevan. The agreement does not imply providing Armenia with the same security guarantees that, for example, exist between the United States and Israel. According to the document, Armenia will receive assistance from the United States for economic and military reforms, but this does not mean direct intervention by the American army in a possible conflict.

Against the background of the dialogue between the United States and the Russian Federation, Brussels' positions are gradually weakening, but so far there are no prerequisites for Yerevan to change its foreign policy course in these conditions, Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector at the IMEMO RAS, tells Izvestia.

— At the moment we see the opposite trend, Armenia intends to continue to move closer to the EU. The fact of negotiations between the Russian-American delegation and the split in the European elites has not yet affected Yerevan's position," he says.

According to him, they now intend to continue to throw all their efforts at "conditional European integration."