High risks of forest fires are predicted already in March in different parts of the country: from the Far East to the Caucasus. This was reported to "Izvestia" by Avialesokhraniya. Rosleskhoz also urged to prepare for the early start of the fire-dangerous season, especially in Central Russia. Experts noted that the warm winter and snow melt, which resulted in insufficient moisture in the soil, led to high risks. They fear that smoldering peat bogs may ignite in such a situation.
Where risks of fires are high
High risks of forest fires are predicted in March in five federal districts at once, as follows from the data of Aviation Forestry Protection Agency. Increased fire danger is expected in almost 30 regions in the Central, Southern, Volga, North Caucasian Federal Districts and in the Far East. The risk zone includes Bryansk, Belgorod, Moscow, Voronezh regions, western and central parts of Kursk, Orel and Smolensk regions.
The forecast was developed on the basis of data on the hydrometeorological situation in December-January, preliminary long-term forecast of temperature and precipitation from the Hydrometeorological Center for March-May 2025, multi-year data on burnability and the results of multivariate analysis, noted in the Aviaforestry.
Regions of the Central Federal District need to be prepared for the fact that this year's fire season will start in March, said the head of the Federal Forestry Agency Ivan Sovetnikov. Among the reasons he named abnormal weather conditions.
"The lack of precipitation and snow cover suggests that the spring forest fire season may start earlier. All forces and means must be ready, we can not wait until mid-April," - reminded the head of the agency.
In addition, he said, people annually set fire to dry grass on agricultural land, from where the fire often passes to the forests.
Fire-hazardous season has already been opened in two regions - in the entire territory of Krasnodar Krai and in some municipalities of Primorsky Krai, added in Avialesookhrana. A special firefighting regime has been established there.
What weather contributes to fires
For the early start of the fire season several factors should converge, the scientific head of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand told Izvestia.
- A period of warm weather is needed, as well as early snow melt. The second factor will probably materialize, because usually at this time the height of the snow cover is 36-37 cm, and now - 5 cm, - he said.
There was enough precipitation at the beginning of winter, but due to the warm weather, the snow melted and water seeped into the soil, which became saturated with moisture, he added. But in January and February, precipitation is scarce. And it's an unusual situation when the snow cover is only a few centimeters high in February.
Until the end of February to expect noticeable snowfalls, he said, is not worth it.
- First of all, the atmospheric pressure is high, and secondly, the air masses are carried from the north, they are not saturated enough with moisture, - said the scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center.
Roman Vilfand noted thatthere is a greater risk of forest fires already in March in the south of the European part of Russia.
- If in March-April anticyclonal weather is established, when the sky is low cloudy, the sun's rays are already saturated with energy, and there is little moisture, the sun begins to warm the surface, moisture evaporation and dehydration occurs,- he explained.
Experts fear peat fires
The fire season may be difficult due to the fact that with the rapid melting of snow, people will start burning dry grass earlier than usual, believes Grigory Kuksin, founder of the Center for the Prevention of Landscape Fires.
- In the spring period, almost 100% of fires are caused by people who set fire to grass, which is wrong and illegal, go barbecuing, build fires. It turns out that with a warm and dry beginning of spring there will be more opportunities to set fires, - he explained.
In addition, after winter with little snow, the soil does not get enough moisture, water reserves in bogs and drainage canals are reduced.
- This all contributes to fires developing more quickly. The probability of soil and peat fires is also growing, which can burn for a long time and cause trouble throughout the summer," the expert added.
Some peat fires, he said, have been going on since last year. For example, in Transbaikalia, Perm and other regions.
- These are so-called "zombie fires" that survive the winter period, - Grigory Kuksin emphasized.
Last year, which was calm in terms of fires for the European part of the country, with wet and warm weather, resulted in a large amount of grass growing, he added.
- That combination of lots of fuel, little water and a longer season sets the stage for a situation where if people start fires, it will be harder to manage. And the forecast of summer drought that some forecasters are talking about also makes us expect a more difficult season," the expert shared.
But the forecast of increased fire risks may not come true if spring is rich in precipitation, added Konstantin Kobyakov, head of projects for the conservation of plant life of the "Nature and People" Foundation.
- At the same time, the probability of a more fire-hazardous spring has indeed increased," he confirmed.
According to him, the situation should be a signal to forestry departments and local services that people and equipment should be prepared in advance.
It is a difficult task to give a long-term forecast of precipitation for spring, Roman Vilfand added. But the air temperature in Moscow in late February and early March will be above the climatic norm by several degrees. But the south of the country, on the contrary, is waiting for an influx of cold air, concluded the head of the Hydrometeorological Center.
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