Washington Off: Trump administration is pulling back on support for Ukraine

The Ramstein meeting in Brussels demonstrates the West's gradual shift away from unconditional military support for Ukraine. After the change of power in the United States, Washington is trying to shift its obligations to Europe, but not all NATO countries are able to increase defense spending, and thus the financing of the Kiev regime. The rhetoric on Ukraine's accession to the alliance is also changing. At the same time, by inertia, Western aid is still coming: the UK, which chairs the Ramstein meeting, was the first to announce the allocation of $186.6 million.

The "Ramstein" meeting discussed aid to Ukraine

The 26th meeting of the "Ramstein" format, which traditionally coordinates arms deliveries to Kiev, began in Brussels. Special attention is drawn to it, as this is the first meeting in the "post-Biden" era - the format was initiated by the U.S. side at the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict.

The meeting was attended by the new head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, for whom Ramstein was an international debut. There he immediately met with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov. The latter has already published a joint photo, accompanying a brief comment "The first meeting with the new U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth", the details of the negotiations were not available in the press.

In general, the Ukrainian side, as usual, expected from the meeting to strengthen its defense capabilities and coordinate further actions of allies. The agenda of the meeting included stable and timely provision of military assistance in 2025, acceleration of deliveries of critical weapons, including air defense systems, aircraft and ammunition, as well as investments in the Ukrainian defense industry and joint projects with European partners.

The contact group on military support for Ukraine includes more than 50 states, among them 31 NATO members. Usually the meetings were held under the American chairmanship, but this time it was taken over by the UK, and at Washington's initiative. Some experts attribute this to the fact that Donald Trump's team still lacks consensus on further military assistance to Ukraine, as well as to a certain inexperience of the new US Secretary of Defense.

Following the February 12 meeting, the UK was expected to be the first to announce a $186.6 million aid package, which should include drones, tanks and air defense systems. The head of the kingdom's Defense Ministry John Healey also called on the West to increase its support for Kiev and continue to put pressure on Russia to achieve "peace through force."

At the same time, the first results do not leave a sense of unconditional support for Kiev, as was previously the case. A new thesis in Western rhetoric this time was the assumption that Ukraine will not join NATO. According to the Pentagon chief, the United States does not believe that Kiev's membership in the alliance is a realistic outcome of a diplomatic settlement. Hegseth also said that Ukraine should not aim to return to the 2014 borders. "Chasing this unattainable goal will only prolong the war and bring more suffering," the Pentagon chief said. Zelensky has already commented on the situation with membership in the alliance. According to him, it is unlikely because of the position of Hungary, Germany and the USA. In case of refusal to join, Ukraine should build its own NATO, which, according to Zelensky, means a further increase in the size of the country's armed forces, the British magazine Economist quoted him as saying.

Moreover, Hegseth noted that the US priority under Trump is to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region, as Beijing allegedly "threatens Washington's national interests." This once again emphasizes that the United States is slowly shifting its foreign policy focus away from Ukraine, and strong military support for Kiev seems to be expected only from European allies.

Recently, Washington has been actively promoting the idea of a peaceful settlement. This is evidenced not only by Trump's thunderous statements, but also by his actions. The head of the White House not only "builds bridges" with the Russian side, but also offers various options for Kiev. In particular, Trump intends to get access to rare earth metals and gas in Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees in the peace settlement. Against this background, it is hardly worth expecting the allocation of a large-scale aid package from Washington - at least, the media reports that the new head of the Pentagon has no plans to announce it. By the way, on the eve of Ramstein, Umerov emphasized Ukraine's readiness to negotiate the end of the conflict.

But it is still premature to talk about Washington's complete withdrawal of support for Kiev. The Ukrainian issue will be raised again this week on February 13 at the NATO defense ministers' meeting, and then at the Munich Security Conference (February 14-16). By the way, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is already scheduled to meet with US Vice President J.D. Vance on Friday.

The USA wants to shift the responsibility for Ukraine to the EU

While the US position on further military aid to Ukraine is not yet settled, the outline of the foreign policy under the slogan "America First" is obvious. For example, Washington is already trying to shift responsibility for Ukraine's fate to Europe in order to focus on its own security.

On the day of his inauguration, Donald Trump immediately signed an executive order suspending aid programs to foreign countries for 90 days to review them. According to The Washington Post's source in the US Congress, Trump's order implied, among other things, the suspension of military and economic aid to Kiev.

At the same time, Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz declares that the responsibility for the conflict in the future will have to be borne by European countries. In this regard, Washington insists that they increase their defense spending to at least 5% of GDP.

According to calculations of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the total defense spending of NATO members is $1.44 trillion, of which Europe's share is only $442 billion. According to the authors of the report, if the EU countries were able to increase spending to at least 3% of GDP, the volume of their contributions would already increase by more than $250 billion, and in case of increasing spending to 5% - by almost $750 billion. Nevertheless, it is almost impossible to achieve this, because some countries are already forced to use extra-budgetary funds.

- Spending 5% of GDP on the defense budget is unthinkable for most European countries. Some might be able to increase spending, but not to 5%. The states have traditionally spent more than the Europeans, that's why they were the leading force in Ukraine, Trump doesn't want that role anymore. He is trying to fulfill his campaign promise to end the conflict, but a freeze scenario looks more likely now," says German political analyst Christoph Herstel.

Poland (4.12%), Estonia (3.43%), the United States (3.38%) and Latvia (3.15%) - those countries with a particularly bellicose stance towards Russia - allocated the largest percentage of GDP to defense in 2024. Germany's spending was only 2.12% of GDP, and if it were to increase to 5%, Berlin would have to allocate more than 40% of the national budget to defense, which is unlikely to be viewed positively by voters. Early parliamentary elections will be held in Germany on February 23.

Against this background, given that Germany is also among the largest European donors to Ukraine, the states may not be able to fully shift responsibility for supporting Kiev. In addition, Politico reports that Washington's European allies in general are gradually changing their approach, bringing it in line with Trump's position.