In private: banks began to reject 95 applications for consumer loans out of 100
Banks are refusing to lend money to Russians. In January, they approved only 5% of applications for consumer loans, the financial marketplace "Compare" told Izvestia. This is a record low, although a year ago, the loan was issued almost every fourth request. Market participants confirmed the trend towards a sharp decline in the number of approvals and explained: the reason is the Central Bank's strict policy. The increase in refusals will save some citizens from the debt trap, but others will be pushed to MFIs, where interest rates are much higher, or even to illegal lenders, experts fear.
Why banks more often began to deny citizens a loan
In January this year, the level of approval of loans in banks fell to a record low, amounting to 5%, told "Izvestia". This figure was the lowest in the history of such statistics in the financial marketplace "Compare". In the first month of 2024, the percentage of approvals amounted to 22, they noted.
- 5% is an unprecedented drop in the approval rate for at least the last few years," emphasized Magomed Gamzaev, director of the credit direction in "Compare".
The market is reluctant to comment on loan denials, but in general, major banks and BCIs confirmed the trend to Izvestia. The level of approval of consumer loans in January this year decreased by more than half compared to the same period in 2024, VTB stated. The bank added: this year the demand for loans in general against the background of high rates was lower by 30% than a year earlier.
The level of approvals declined for most of last year in the entire retail sector, as well as in the segment of consumer loans, said Alexei Volkov, marketing director of the National Bureau of Credit Histories. But the company does not yet have data for January. At the same time, Oleg Lagutkin, general director of the Scoring Bureau, said that in January the approval rate for consumer loans did not change compared to the previous month.
How the requirements for borrowers have become stricter
The retail lending market in 2024 has generally cooled down due to the regulator's strict policy, Alexei Volkov believes. According to him, first of all, it is about the increase in the key rate (up to a record 21%) and the tightening of quantitative restrictions on the issuance of loans to high-risk borrowers. Therefore, the demand from clients and the appetite for risk on the part of financial organizations simultaneously decreased in the market.
- Thus, on the one hand, the number of loan applications is declining, as rising interest rates are forcing many citizens to refuse unsecured loans, and on the other hand, the approval rate of loan requests is also falling significantly. Thus, in December 2024 this indicator for unsecured loans was at the level of 20%, - said Alexei Volkov.
As a result, according to preliminary data from Frank RG, in January, the total volume of loans (including mortgages, cash loans, car loans and pos-credits) amounted to 441 billion rubles - the lowest result since April 2022.
The level of approvals has been declining since 2023 precisely because of tighter regulation by the Central Bank, VTB also agreed.
The market expects that the high key rate will remain high for a long time. Therefore, banks are bravely tightening credit policy, getting the target yield with a lower level of risk, said Ivan Uklein, senior director for bank ratings "Expert RA". He added: financial organizations have slowed down lending to individuals and at the same time increased placement on deposits with the Central Bank and investments in securities with increased profitability.
In addition, the Bank of Russia is fighting not only inflation, but also some imbalances in unsecured lending. Because of the limits of the Central Bank is now almost impossible to get a second or third loan in the same hands, and customers with a high debt load and at all legally prohibited any credit cards from the middle of 2024, reminded Ivan Uklein.
What to do if denied a loan
In the current situation, the plus for citizens is that they are less likely to fall into debt, said Ivan Uklein. In addition, the quality of the loan portfolio in banks is increasing, which is very important in turbulent times, added Elman Mehdiyev, founder of the Kredchek service.
But there are also negative consequences. For example, according to Ivan Uklein, in these conditions suffer bona fide borrowers who have a high debt load indicator on formal grounds - for example, if they have a large monthly mortgage payment.
In addition, since the middle of last year there has been a significant flow of clients from loans to loans, as the risk policy of MFIs is more loyal, added Magomed Gamzaev from "Compare". According to Scoring Bureau, the share of microloans in total disbursements in December rose to a record 70%.
At the same time, the rates there are much higher. Now, according to the law, they cannot be more than 0.8% per day (or 292% per annum) - and they are kept at these levels on average. Whereas the full cost of a consumer loan in a bank averages 34%, Izvestia wrote earlier.
Finally, fears Elman Mehdiyev, in case of wrong and hasty decisions, the high proportion of refusals may spur demand towards the market of gray creditors. While the Bank of Russia has no tools to completely defeat this shadow sector. "Izvestia" sent an inquiry to the regulator about the opportunities and risks for the population against the background of growing refusals of banks in lending.
If the reasons for the refusal of the bank in the level of debt load, then to get money to lend can only through its reduction or at the expense of income growth, recommends Elman Mehdiyev. VTB assured: with a greater likelihood of a positive decision on the loan will be taken for customers who confirmed their income certificate or through the site "Gosuservices".
According to the experts of "Compare", in 2025 the trend for "expensive" loans will continue and the growth of rejections may become a signal to borrowers about the need to more carefully assess the opportunities when applying to the bank.
- This year consumer lending will be most influenced by the external environment, primarily the level of the key rate and macro-regulatory actions, - Oleg Lagutkin from "Scoring Bureau" is sure. - It is unlikely to expect an increase in the level of approval in the first half of the year.
If the key rate remains at the current level of 21% - which is what analysts expect - the situation in the consumer loan market will not change, said Evgeny Mironyuk, stock market expert at BKS Investment World. However, its potential decrease in the second half of the year will become a stimulus for the sector.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
