The United States announced that American ships would be able to pass through the Panama Canal, critical to U.S. businesses, for free. The transportation artery authority immediately denied such an arrangement with Washington. Meanwhile, pressure on Colombia, Canada or Mexico has already forced those countries to change their border security plans. About why Donald Trump has taken up the Panama Canal and how the aggressive policy of the United States can bring a split within the American region - in the material of "Izvestia".
The conflict over the Panama Canal is gaining new momentum
After Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to Panama, the State Department announced on February 6 that the authorities of the Latin American state agreed not to charge American ships for passage through the Panama Canal. This, according to the agency, "will save the U.S. government millions of dollars a year."
On the same day, the Panama Canal management denied the State Department's words, saying that the tariffs and terms of use of the transportation artery remain unchanged. However, the report also noted that the party remains open to a dialog with the United States on the authorization of the passage of U.S. military vessels through the canal.
Earlier, Marco Rubio has already warned the authorities of Panama: the United States will take action if the Latin American state does not reduce China's influence on the canal. According to Rubio, who met with Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino and the republic's Foreign Minister Javier Martinez-Achey on February 2, the current "influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party" over the Panama Canal poses a threat to the functioning of the waterway and also violates the 1977 Treaty of Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal. As a result, the Panamanian government allowed the complete annulment of the contract with Hong Kong-based Hutchison Ports PPC, which operates two of the five ports adjacent to the canal. It is important to note that the contract with this company runs until 2047, and the cooperation with this company has lasted since 1997. In addition, Panama decided not to extend its participation in China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
The Panama Canal is very important for the U.S. economy, it provides a shorter route between the U.S. East Coast and Asia. About 40% of containerized transportation and the majority of U.S. energy exports pass through it.
Nevertheless, experts note that the previously increased tariffs for the use of the transportation artery were not a problem for American entrepreneurs before the topic began to be actively promoted by Donald Trump. According to some calculations, the cost of one coffee maker increases by only 10 cents if it is transported through the Panama Canal on a merchant ship.
The U.S. claim to the Panama Canal is one element of a broad U.S. fight against Chinese influence, said RIAC program manager Konstantin Sukhoverkhov. On February 4, China imposed a 10 percent duty on imports of oil and agricultural machinery and a 15 percent tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. This was in response to Washington's imposition of a 10 percent duty on "all items" of imports from the PRC.
- Many ships carrying Chinese goods do pass through the Panama Canal, as well as ships that serve PRC companies. Accordingly, Donald Trump has an understanding that it is possible to reduce a certain cash flow from China. There is also a political point here. We see that Trump's actions are in accordance with the spirit of the "Monroe Doctrine", which excludes the influence on the region of any other power outside the Western Hemisphere. The Panama Canal story is one of the manifestations of this," Konstantin Sukhoverkhov noted in a conversation with Izvestia.
Earlier, the media wrote about the preparation of a telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Trump's economic pressure on the countries of the region
However, not all countries are able to respond to the US, as China does. Foreign experts note: the Republican at the beginning of his second presidential term deliberately raises the stakes so that at the end of the dialog the opponents agree to terms unacceptable to them against the background of American threats. The countries of the region are heavily dependent on the United States economically and therefore it is extremely difficult for them to resist such pressure.
In addition to Panama, Trump's attention is now focused on Canada and Mexico. Both countries have been threatened by the U.S. leader to impose 25 percent duties on their goods if they do not fight illegal migration and drug trafficking. Both countries have already announced measures to protect the border, allowing them to freeze the imposition of restrictions for at least a month.
Donald Trump wanted to impose duties of 25% and further increase it to 50% on Colombia after its President Gustavo Petro refused to accept two military planes with 160 migrants on board on January 26 because of inhumane treatment of illegals - they were transported from the States with their hands and feet bound. But in the end Bogota backtracked, thanks to which the trade measures were not applied.
According to Tatiana Rusakova, a senior researcher at the Center for Political Studies at the ILA RAS, Trump is acting like a businessman, not a politician. He is now looking for quick solutions to issues important to him, and economic threats work better in this case than diplomatic approaches, she tells Izvestia.
The region, in the broad sense of the word, could now split pretty badly. It is obvious that Donald Trump will increase pressure on countries like Venezuela or Cuba. The latter has already been returned by the American president to the list of state sponsors of terrorism. In addition, he said that he would not allow the purchase of oil from Caracas - and this can certainly cause serious damage to the Venezuelan economy.
Also, those countries that are generally sympathetic to Trump, such as Argentina, may actively start using aggressive policies in the region. Its president Javier Milay has already announced his decision to leave the World Health Organization (WHO). Salvadoran leader Nayib Bukele has proposed using a large prison in his country to hold some of the migrants the US wants to remove from the States. We are talking about illegals from those states that do not yet accept their compatriots (we are talking about Nicaragua and Cuba, which do not have a corresponding agreement with the U.S.). In addition, Ecuador (President Daniel Noboa said that Trump's arrival is a victory for Latin America) reported the introduction of a duty of 27% on Mexican goods because Mexico City delayed the signing of a free trade agreement between the two countries.
Against this background, on the contrary, there will be countries that will try to actively defend their sovereignty. And here we are talking not only about Venezuela and Cuba, but, for example, Brazil, which is a member of BRICS. It is known that Trump has previously threatened the states that are members of this association with the introduction of duties in the amount of 100% for "trying to get away from the dollar." Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said: if Washington raises duties on Brazilian products, his country will take retaliatory measures. At the same time, he said, Brazil would prefer better relations instead of a trade war. The US, of course, has strong levers of pressure on Brazil, as the countries remain important trading partners, but still this Latin American state, which has close ties with the BRICS members (including Russia and China), is likely to defend its sovereignty more firmly.
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