Scraping through the coffers: new car sales in Russia continue to fall

In the first month of this year, some popular automobile brands, as well as certain models that were bestsellers in their class, showed a significant drop in sales. Although the total volume of sales exceeded the figures of January 2024, compared to December, the market sagged by almost 40%. Izvestia found out the details.

Market dialectics

In the first month of 2025, 89,072 new passenger cars were sold in Russia. This is reported by the analytical agency "Avtostat", based on the number of issued EFTS. This is 11% higher than the figures for January 2024, but 38.5% less than in December last year, when 123,431 cars were purchased in Russia.

The market leadership was retained by the domestic Lada with a circulation of 27,538 units (+ 23.6% vs. January 2024). The second place and leadership among foreign cars belongs to the Chinese brand Haval (11,825 cars, +22.9%). Chery is in third place with 8,959 cars (+1.8%). Geely brand, which sold 6,217 cars in the first month of 2025, worsened its result in comparison with January 2024 by 30.9%. Changan brand, which took the fifth position, despite a number of January scandals related to this brand, on the contrary, added 3.8%, having sold 5081 cars last month.

Omoda models sold 2,327 units, which is 12.8% worse than last January. In seventh place was the company Jetour (2214 SUVs and crossovers). The increase was 117.1% at once, which is explained by the low base at the beginning of last year. For the same reason, the number of sold cars of the Belarusian brand Belgee (eighth position, 1,816 cars) increased by 273%, while Jaecoo brand (1,781 cars, ninth place) increased by 98.3%. The top ten most popular car brands in January is completed by the premium brand Tank with the result of 1,672 cars (-3.5% compared to January last year).

Lada Granta is the leader among the models: 11,422 cars, +11.8%. Its "big sister", Lada Vesta, which sold out 8,007 units, improving the result of January 2024 by 48.8%. Despite the fact that last month sales of Haval Jolion crossover decreased by 4.7% (4139 units), this model still holds the third place in the "personal score" and the title of the most popular model of a foreign brand. Chery Tiggo 7 Pro Max crossover (4043 units, +23.2%) and Lada Niva Travel SUV (3101 cars, -3.8%) follow. In sixth position Chery Tiggo 4 Pro with a result of 2,822 cars (+9.3%). Lada Nina Legend in January significantly "sagged": -16.6%, 2,779 cars. As a result, the "classic Niva" took only the seventh line.

Geely Monjaro, which was the best-seller among mid-size crossovers for a long time, showed the most serious decline compared to January last year. Last month, 2309 such cars were sold (eighth place), which is worse than last year's result by 36.7%. Haval M6 crossover (2307 cars) and Lada Largus station wagon (2173 units), which for the first time made it to the top 10 most popular models. Production of Largus resumed in Izhevsk only last spring, so the almost 30-fold increase in sales of this model compared to last January is quite understandable.

Legitimate decline

A noticeable reduction in sales of Geely cars is primarily caused by the reorientation of buyers to similar models under other brands, says Igor Morzharetto, partner of "Avtostat". As an example, he cites the relatively recently appeared on our market cars of Belgee and Knewstar brands, which are based on Geely models.

- We are seeing an increase in sales of cars of these new brands: they are pulling some buyers away from the parent brand. The picture is similar for other sub-brands of Chinese manufacturers. The decrease in sales of one brand, which is part of a large car company, is compensated by the growth of another brand, which is also part of a single automobile concern," he said.

Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, also believes that in some cases the sales decline is due to the redistribution of the flow of buyers between different brands and sub-brands of one automaker. As for the sharp drop in sales of the Geely Monjaro crossover, it is primarily caused by the restrictions introduced last year for importers who import cars into Russia through alternative channels.

- A significant part of these cars were delivered to our country through various "gray" schemes. Last April, such importers were substantially "tightened" by introducing a mechanism for additional assessment of salvage duty, duties, excise taxes and taxes. This led to the fact that the cost of "unofficial" cars, including Geely Monjaro, became less attractive and their flow into our country decreased. Since last January the share of these "gray" cars was quite large, now it has decreased, which eventually affected the overall sales, - explained Maxim Kadakov.

The reason for the reduction in sales of Lada Niva Legend, the head of "Za Rulem" considers the expectation of potential buyers of new versions and modifications of this SUV to appear on the market.

- Last summer it was announced the appearance of a version of "Niva" with a more tractive and slightly more powerful engine. Also "charged" modification of Niva Sport will be soon released on the market. It is quite probable that potential buyers decided to wait for such cars to appear at dealers, - he supposes.

A slight decrease in sales of Haval Jolion is directly related to the fact that it was excluded from the list of models, which are covered by the government program of preferential car loans, Maxim Kadakov believes.

Geely Monjaro, most likely, is losing ground due to tough competition in the crossover segment. The classic "Niva" is gradually giving way to more modern modifications of the Lada lineup, says Irina Frank, Managing Director of Frank Auto.

It is too early to draw conclusions

The results of January are not indicative and cannot reflect the real picture that is developing in the market, experts and dealers are sure. The first month of the year is very specific and sales are seriously affected by numerous non-market factors, they emphasize.

- The first half of the month people are still finishing their olivier and drinking champagne, and certainly not running to car dealerships for a new car. January has always been far from the most "successful" months in car sales. Therefore, it is senseless to make any conclusions and forecasts on the basis of this month, - says Igor Morzharetto.

Maxim Kadakov notes that the long New Year vacations, which do not dispose to buy cars, many potential buyers continue a kind of vacation.

- Many people, especially those who work "remotely", often spend the whole January and even February in hot countries or simply in another region. Obviously, they will not go out to buy a car," he explained.

January results, in general, are quite good, but they "do not set the trend line for the whole year", said Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for new car sales of Avilon AG. At the same time, certain factors affecting the market are noticeable already now, he notes.

- We are clearly aware of the difficulties. One of them is high rates of the Central Bank, which keep money on deposits. The second is the risk of overstocking. According to our calculations, the cars that are now in the stockpiles will be enough for about 4-5 months of sales. It is highly likely that we will see a picture where each brand will announce an ambitious plan, which is dictated by HQ requirements. And the summation of these plans will result in a final market forecast figure for 2025 much larger than the brands themselves see it. The forecast for this year we now see at 1.4 million units, which is down about 12% from last year," he said.

According to Irina Frank, this year will see the strengthening of the positions of localized manufacturers, further digitalization of sales and service processes, the growing popularity of electric and hybrid models.

- In addition, we may witness the formation of a new consumer behavior, when buyers will consider a car as an investment, which is especially relevant in the current economic environment," she believes.