Council right: Slovakia ready to block 16th sanctions package

Slovakia intends to block the adoption of the 16th package of European sanctions against Russia if Ukraine does not resume Russian gas supplies through its territory, European Parliament member Luboš Blaha has told Izvestiya. Bratislava is also against the EU imposing any ban on imports of blue fuel from Russia, he said. Earlier, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he was ready to use his veto power to freeze the extension of restrictions if Brussels fails to ensure Budapest's energy security. Against this background, the EU is developing a new, already 16th package of restrictions, which may include an embargo on gas and aluminum supplies. Izvestia reports on whether Slovakia and Hungary are able to withstand the pressure from Brussels.

What will be included in the new package of sanctions

Slovakia is ready to block the new package of EU sanctions against Russia, if it includes a ban on imports of its pipeline gas and LNG, said "Izvestia" MEP from Slovakia, a member of the ruling party "Course - Social Democracy" Lubos Blaha.

- "Not only can Slovakia do it, but I am convinced that if Ukraine continues to block gas transportation through its territory, our Prime Minister Robert Fitzo will do it," the MEP told Izvestia. - We understand quite clearly: if someone takes openly hostile steps against us in order to harm not only Slovakia, but also the entire EU, it is only natural that he will receive a corresponding response. Slovakia with today's government is not an unruly scapegoat in the international arena, but a sovereign state that will defend its interests. But we will act reasonably and tactically so as not to jeopardize our diplomatic position and continue to defend our national interests.

The European Union's imports of Russian LNG in 2024 amounted to almost 17.8 million tons against 15.1 million tons a year earlier. To reduce Russia's budget revenues, according to media reports, a group of ten states - Denmark, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Estonia, Finland and the Czech Republic - is proposing to limit imports of Russian blue fuel to the European market. Poland's participation is noteworthy, as Warsaw assumed the presidency of the EU Council from January 1, 2025, which gives it the power to set the agenda in Brussels.

In addition to a possible ban on gas supplies, the 16th package is being discussed to include restrictions on aluminum imports, disconnecting new banks from SWIFT and restriction against dozens of tankers, Bloomberg wrote. Brussels is also preparing additional trade measures for 50 types of goods from Russia, said David O'Sullivan, the EU's special representative for sanctions. Consideration of the 16th package is expected in February, specified European Commissioner for Foreign Policy Kaja Kallas.

- I believe that this is what certain circles are seeking. The U.S. makes no secret of the fact that it would like to supply its gas to the huge European market at inflated prices, it would be a huge business for them. For the sake of such a deal, they can do anything, including destroying underwater gas pipelines and igniting a conflict between Ukraine and the EU over gas transportation through Ukraine," EP MP Lubosz Blaha added.

According to him, the only one who benefits from such a feud between the EU and Russia is the United States. Nevertheless, the EU in January extended the current restrictions for six months. "This is despite the fact that these sanctions, which have not been approved by the UN, are illegitimate and, moreover, they often cause more damage to the EU itself than to Russia," Lubos Blaha summarized.

A possible embargo on gas supplies will harm all EU countries, even those that do not depend on Russian gas. Reduction of its volumes on the market will lead to shortages and price increases on the stock exchange, explained Igor Yushkov, an expert of the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund.

- Now the EU is rapidly selling reserves from its storages, by the end of the heating season the UGS will be 30% full. Brussels will be forced to fill its storages in an accelerated mode for the rest of the year, the price will remain at a high level, - the expert said.

At the same time, a possible ban on gas supplies to the EU will not cause significant damage to Russia. There is no export duty on LNG supplies to Russia, so budget revenues in this part will not suffer. Pipeline gas supplies are subject to a duty of 30%, but the volume of its transportation to Europe has decreased from 155 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 32 billion cubic meters in 2024. Therefore, there will be no serious drop in revenues in the case of an embargo.

Why Hungary and Slovakia are against the sanctions

Slovakia and Hungary, which have no access to the sea, will suffer the most from the possible ban. Now pipeline gas supplies from Russia to the EU are carried out only through "Turkish Stream" - pumping through the Yamal-Europe pipeline was closed by Poland in spring 2022, and "Nord Stream" was blown up in September 2022.

On January 1, Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas through its territory. At the same time, Kiev is also trying to hit the "Turkish Stream": in January, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the reflection of an attack on the compressor station "Russkaya", which provides fuel supply through the "Turkish Stream". Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already stated that protecting the security of this route is a key task for Budapest.

In the case of Slovakia, the situation is even more complicated. Bratislava is emptying its underground gas storages after gas transit through Ukraine was cut off. At the same time, the issue of Russian gas supplies to the country via Turkish Stream and Hungary's gas transportation system is being resolved. However, even if Slovakia is able to establish gas supplies, Bratislava will not be able to return the money it previously received for fuel transit to Austria. According to Prime Minister Robert Fitzo's estimates, Slovakia will lose €400-500 million a year because of this. The republic's attempts to start negotiations with Kiev on resuming transit have failed so far. The only thing they managed to achieve is that they promised to consider Slovakia's proposal to pump legally Azerbaijani gas through Ukrainian territory.

Brussels has been trying to reduce imports of Russian energy carriers since 2022. In particular, then the EU imposed an embargo and a price ceiling on oil from Russia, making an exception for deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline. Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic receive oil through this route. Brussels subsequently extended the exemption. Hungary recently threatened to block the extension of restrictive measures against Russia, but withdrew its veto after receiving guarantees of energy security from the EU. If the situation becomes dire for Slovakia, Fitzo may decide to take similar measures, says Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University.

- In addition to the sanctions package and aid to Ukraine, Fitzo may block the adoption of the next EU budget or delay the approval of some smaller document. But in return, he will receive a freeze of funds from the EU funds," the expert said.

Brussels is actively using the mechanism of blocking funds for dissenting members of the association. For example, in September 2022, the EC froze €7.5 billion for Hungary from the EU budget. Now Slovakia faces such punishment: Brussels may withhold a part of the €12.8 billion allocated to Bratislava in the EU solidarity fund.

It is unlikely that Slovakia alone, or even together with Hungary, will be able to stop the adoption of a new package of restrictions against Russia. Both countries are dependent on EU funds, so they will not be able to defend their position in the long term. However, the goal of Bratislava and Budapest is to get exemptions from the sanctions regime for themselves. This option is more achievable, as both countries have already demonstrated more than once. For example, Hungary won an exemption for all investments in the construction of the Paks-2 nuclear power plant from the 14th sanctions package. The Czech Republic and Slovakia were allowed to use Russian oil products despite the embargo.