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- Promise - does not mean to be born: the authorities do not discuss a preferential mortgage for the intention to have children
Promise - does not mean to be born: the authorities do not discuss a preferential mortgage for the intention to have children
The authorities are not discussing the launch of a new mortgage state program for families planning to have children in the next two years. This is how the Ministry of Finance first officially commented on this initiative to Izvestia. Developers are trying to exploit the desire of the authorities to increase the birth rate in the country by all means, but it is almost impossible to realize their idea in practice. It is difficult to fix the obligation to have a child in the documents, and the borrowers themselves can easily fail to fulfill such a promise - both intentionally and because of possible problems with health or fetal development. The initiative could spawn too many gray schemes. How realistic is such a scenario - in the material "Izvestia".
Whether the authorities are discussing a new mortgage for future families
The initiative to launch a favorable mortgage for families who plan to have children within two years, is not discussed by the authorities, reported "Izvestia" in the press service of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. In addition, the idea has not yet been discussed in parliament, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma's Financial Markets Committee, told the editorial board - according to him, the launch of such a benefit would lead to the emergence of new schemes to circumvent the requirements.
Representatives of the construction industry in January proposed such an idea at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, the media reported earlier. According to the developers' idea, the program should guarantee a rate of 6% for two years for any borrower who plans to become a parent during this time. If after that he documents the appearance of a child in the family, he will be able to keep the favorable conditions. If not - the mortgage rate will be recalculated, but at the current rates at that time. Until then, the budget will pay the difference between the preferential and market annual interest.
That is, if the borrower takes advantage of such a program now (with the key 21% and average market mortgage rates of about 28%), two years later he is almost guaranteed to get a cheaper loan. According to the Central Bank's medium-term forecast, in 2027 the key rate will be on average at 7.5-8.5%, which means that loans will also cost much less.
"Izvestia" sent a request to discuss the initiative also to the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Construction.
The construction industry is not just suggesting that the government stimulate demand for real estate - in 2024, the authorities reduced the availability of preferential mortgages. Since July, the massive unaddressed state program, with which any Russian could buy a new building at 8% per annum, ceased to operate. Get a family mortgage can only parents with at least one child under six years old, and from IT-mortgage completely excluded housing in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
The market initiative would allow to expand the scope of available support, explained economist Andrei Barkhota. With its help it is possible to return the demand of borrowers who do not fit the new conditions of government programs and are not ready to make a mortgage at barrier interest rates.
- Developers are trying to play on the government's desire to increase the birth rate even in the most "original" ways, - explained the expert.
Unusual ideas have recently really appeared in the public field from different speakers. For example, the Ministry of Education recently called for reviving the tradition of school discos to combat the demographic crisis - they say that teenagers lack romance. And according to the new recommendations of the Ministry of Health, women who want to have an abortion will have to listen to the fetal heartbeat before the procedure.
However, developers are not just asking for support - in conditions of high interest rates it is hard for them to sell housing without a favorable mortgage. So far the situation for them is not the best: according to the research of the company "Yakov and Partners", a third of developers may suffer losses in 2025, and their business threatens to become less profitable. In addition, their debt burden is growing along with the key rate. As a result, at the end of 2024, the authorities even began to discuss the need for a moratorium on bankruptcies of developers.
Why the new preferential mortgage for future children will not be accepted
Given the comments of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the probability of launching this state program can be assessed as low, said Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. In general, it would be difficult to implement it.
First of all, it is necessary to develop a document that would allow to legally sign a pledge on the birth of a child, said Yulia Kovalenko, an economist at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University. According to her, to participate in the program may require a medical opinion on the woman's ability to become pregnant.
In general, it is impossible to include a "promise to give birth" in normative documents, said Alla Makarentseva, head of the Demography Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy. According to research, even a strong reproductive intention is not always realized over a three-year period - if we talk about two years, the probability will decrease even more.
Difficulties with conception and carrying can arise for a variety of reasons, said Andrei Barkhota. If after the "promise to give birth" conception will not occur because of health problems of borrowers, to raise their mortgage rate would be simply unethical.
- For example, what about in case of a miscarriage and negative consequences from it in the form of inability to conceive a child again? In this case, the couple will actually fulfill the terms of the contract, but will not be able to continue its fulfillment due to force majeure, - explained Vladimir Chernov.
In such a case, it remains unclear how to correctly formulate penalties for failure to fulfill the promise within the specified period of time, the expert added. It will be very difficult to prove that the couple failed to conceive a child intentionally. And any certificates can be forged or "bought" in theory.
- This program, if it is launched, will give rise to a lot of fraudulent schemes of its unfair use, as in its chain will appear extra links in the form of medical workers, - Vladimir Chernov is sure.
Fraudsters will simply not fulfill the requirements for childbirth, said economist Yulia Kovalenko. In this case, they will get a soft loan for two years, after which their rate will still be recalculated at a more favorable rate than in 2025, because the key rate will fall by 2027. In addition, borrowers may bring knowingly false certificates confirming the possibility of pregnancy.
In general, it will be difficult to identify and provide for all possible cases of deliberate circumvention of the program requirements, said Vladimir Chernov. In this case, for many unscrupulous borrowers it would be an opportunity to get housing at an adequate cost right now - many could take advantage of it.
In this case, the Ministry of Finance would take on an additional burden. The share of state programs in the issuance of loans in 2024 was already about 68%, which means that the state pays for almost two-thirds of the loans issued together with the borrowers. Given that the difference between market and preferential rates reaches 17-21%, the main debt burden on new housing loans in Russia falls on the budget, and the situation could only get worse.
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