Put on ultimatum: how Budapest blocks extension of sanctions against Russia

At the end of the meeting on January 24, the EU post-ambassadors failed to agree on the extension of sanctions against Russia. No loud statements were made, apparently this issue has been submitted for approval to the foreign ministers, who plan to meet in Brussels next Monday. The extension of the sanctions is being blocked by Hungary. Earlier, the country's Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that he would support keeping the restrictions only if gas transit through Ukraine is resumed and Kiev's attacks on Turkish Stream are stopped. Orban's position is largely shared in Slovakia, and over time other EU countries may think about ending the economic sanctions, experts believe. At the same time, analysts note that Budapest will most likely not risk a sharp aggravation of relations with Brussels.

What Hungary is asking for the extension of sanctions

On January 24, the permanent representatives of the EU countries discussed the extension of economic sanctions against Russia. It is assumed that the next list of restrictions will be approved at the meeting of foreign ministers, which will be held on Monday, the 27th. Formally, the term of the EU sanctions against Russia expires next week on January 31. At the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban earlier announced his readiness to block the extension of the restrictions if Budapest's conditions are not met: the resumption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, as well as the cessation of AFU attacks on the "Turkish Stream" and a guarantee of continued oil supplies.

It is noteworthy that at the end of the meeting on Friday, no loud statements were made either by Hungary or Brussels. Accordingly, there is still no decision on the possible extension of the sanctions. It is only known that on January 27, EU representatives will discuss a new, 16th package of measures against Russia, as well as the use of frozen assets of the Russian Federation. Brussels seriously expects that the EU will be able to achieve a "positive result" in negotiations with Hungary. However, the European Commission probably assumes different scenarios of events. It is indicative that the official representative of the EU Stefan Keermaker refused to comment on the steps of the European Commission in case of non-renewal of sanctions against Russia.

It should be reminded that since January 1, 2025 Kiev has stopped pumping Russian gas to the EU countries. This was preceded by attempts by Hungary and Slovakia to find alternative solutions, for example Bratislava offered to buy it on the border between Russia and Ukraine. In late December 2024, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo held talks with Vladimir Putin, while Vladimir Zelensky refused to dialog with the heads of government of Slovakia and Hungary. The cessation of transit caused gas exchange prices to rise to $500 per thousand cubic meters and led to a communal crisis in Transnistria. The annual damage to the EU is estimated by the Slovak Prime Minister at €60-70 billion, his country lost €400 million and now has to get gas through other routes.

In addition, on January 11, Ukrainian drones tried to attack the Russkaya compressor station, which is the entry point of the Turkish Stream pipeline running under the Black Sea. It is through this route that gas is supplied to the Balkan countries, Hungary and now Slovakia. Given the lack of access to the sea, the Central European states will find themselves in a critical situation if gas supplies via Turkish Stream are cut off. Therefore, Hungary and Serbia demand the protection of the pipeline, equating attacks on it with an attack on their sovereignty.

- It is not by chance that Ukraine has stopped gas transit through its territory, but we built a southern alternative route years ago. I see that now they are trying to cut it off as well. By all means, I emphasize, by all means we must prevent Hungary from cutting this artery," Viktor Orban said.

The EU introduced an embargo on Russian oil supplies by sea on December 5, 2022, while Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic continued to receive energy resources through the Druzhba pipeline. Its southern branch runs through Ukraine, which banned the pumping of oil owned by Lukoil in the summer of 2024.

In addition to the issue of gas and oil supplies, Budapest is concerned about the negative effect of anti-Russian sanctions. According to the head of the Hungarian government, his country has already lost €19 billion because of them. At the same time, the restrictions did not lead to the end of the Ukrainian conflict and did not destroy the Russian economy. Therefore, Viktor Orban intends to ask other European leaders to suspend the automatic extension of restrictions. Budapest also intends to hold talks on the need to extend the sanctions with the new US administration, said Peter Szijjártó, head of the republic's foreign ministry.

Orban and Fitzo are pragmatically defending the national interests of their states; they understand perfectly well that the supranational bureaucracy in Brussels does not take into account the opinion of its subjects, MGIMO professor Elena Ponomareva told Izvestia. At the same time, the EU is putting pressure on Budapest and Bratislava by blocking funding. For example, in September 2022, the EC froze €7.5 billion for Hungary from the EU budget. Now Slovakia faces such punishment: Brussels may withhold some of the more than €12.8 billion allocated to Bratislava in the EU solidarity fund.

Viktor Orban may resort to some blackmail with Brussels, trading his agreement to extend sanctions for financial support. For example, in December 2023, the Hungarian prime minister vetoed €50 billion in aid to Ukraine. However, we must not forget that three months later he agreed to a compromise, joining the common decision. And here's why.

- Hungary cannot break with the EU, it is too poor a country. Then literally everything will collapse there, mass unemployment will start. Orban is in no position to dictate terms," Vadim Trukhachev, a political scientist and associate professor at the Russian State University of Humanities, said in a commentary for Izvestia.

Which countries can support Hungary

Orban's conflict with Brussels over the extension of anti-Russian sanctions is largely dictated by the domestic political situation in Hungary. Next year, the country will hold parliamentary elections, and according to opinion polls, the ruling Fidesz party is on par with the new opposition force, the Respect and Freedom party led by Péter Magyar. It came second in the 2024 European Parliament elections with almost 30% of the vote. Although the polls do not cover the backwoods voters who vote for Orban, but focus on opposition Budapest, the Hungarian prime minister is in a difficult situation and is trying to mobilize the electorate with his statements, says Vadim Trukhachev.

- Orban may lose next year's elections. The prime minister will not be saved even if his party takes first place and makes an alliance with radical Euroskeptics from "Our Homeland," because the sum of votes of pro-European parties is likely to be greater, - said Trukhachev.

Meanwhile, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo's situation is even more complicated, as his party has formed a tenuous coalition with two other political forces: the Voice for Social Democracy party and the Slovak National Party. The government has the support of only a slim majority, about 79 deputies out of 150. The opposition has already tried to declare a vote of no confidence in Robert Fitzo, but that attempt failed. However, if one of the parties refuses to support the prime minister, the government will resign. The weak link is President Peter Pellegrini's Voice-Social Democracy party.

Slovakia, too, is deeply divided over support for Robert Fico and his political course. About 40% of the population, primarily residents of the major cities of Bratislava and Kosice, favor a pro-European policy. Supporters of the incumbent prime minister number about 35%, they live mainly in rural areas. The political situation is also influenced by the fact that Slovakia has not yet formed a strong national consciousness, and many people continue to be guided by the anti-Russian government in the Czech Republic, emphasizes Trukhachev.

Over time, other EU states may adopt a similar stance toward sanctions against Russia, especially the countries most affected by the restrictions. However, the EU's view may change only if pragmatically-minded elites come to power in the "locomotives" of the European Union: Germany, Italy and France.

- Germany has suffered the most from the EU's sanctions policy. Perhaps, at first at the level of lands, and then at the federal level, but the position will change, - Elena Ponomareva believes.

So far, official Berlin is ready to buy gas at a price several times more expensive, killing its economy, the expert recalled.