Entered the course: how long the dollar will stay below 100 rubles
Until the end of January, the dollar exchange rate will stay below Br100, and in February it is unlikely to significantly exceed this mark and will continue to trade in the range of Br98-102, according to experts interviewed by "Izvestiya. On January 22, the national currency sharply strengthened: on Forex it was traded at 98.4 rubles, while the Central Bank set the official rate of 99.9 rubles for that day. On the one hand, the national currency is supported by internal factors: the tax period and seasonal decrease in imports. On the other hand, the dollar is weakening against most world currencies after the inauguration of Donald Trump: it is expected that his policy will accelerate inflation in the United States. However, the positive for the ruble is temporary. To what level it may weaken by the end of 2025 - in the material "Izvestia".
Why the dollar fell below Br100 in January
On Wednesday, January 22, the dollar weakened sharply against the ruble, falling below the psychologically important three-digit figure. On that day, the Central Bank set the rate at 99.9 rubles for the first time since December 27 (under the sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, due to which Western currencies cannot be traded there, the regulator sets their rates on the basis of interbank trading in Russia). At the international currency market Forex on January 22, the dollar fell against the ruble to 98.4 rubles at 16:00 Moscow time, follows from the data of the Trading View platform.
The main reason for the strengthening of the ruble at the end of January is the tax period in Russia, according to Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. Because of this, exporting companies increase the sale of foreign currency earnings to pay contributions to the budget, and there is more foreign money on the market. The peak of tax payments falls on the 28th - on this day insurance premiums, VAT, mineral extraction tax, excise duties and income tax for December 2024 will be transferred to the budget, the expert listed. But exporters start currency conversion in advance.
There is another internal factor - weak demand for imports in January, added Alexander Bagmanov, leading investment consultant of Gazprombank Investments service. After the holidays, the demand for foreign goods, as a rule, temporarily decreases, which means that companies need less currency to bring them from abroad.
In addition, the national currency is supported by the still high key rate of 21%, which makes investments in national instruments more profitable, as well as interventions of the Central Bank - from January 15 to February 6, it sells yuan for 4.8 billion rubles.
Another important reason is foreign economic. The dollar is weakening against all world currencies (not only against the ruble) - this is the markets' reaction to the beginning of Donald Trump's work as US President.
U.S. President Donald Trump
After his arrival, the risks of a tariff war with the countries of Latin America, Europe, Asia have increased - Trump has already announced duties against a number of countries, recalled Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BKS Investment World. This will make goods imported into the States more expensive and accelerate inflation in the dollar, so that the currency becomes less attractive to investors.
In addition, Trump's inauguration also brings positives directly for the Russian economy. He has already tasked his special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg with ending the conflict in 100 days, The Wall Street Journal wrote. The new U.S. president is expected to include a clause on easing sanctions in the cease-fire agreement, said Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global.
How long the dollar will stay below 100 rubles
In the pessimistic scenario, by the middle of the next trading week, the value of the Russian national currency will stop strengthening against the background of the end of the tax period in the Russian Federation and a reduction in the volume of currency sales by exporters on the stock exchange, as well as a gradual increase in imports, believes Vladimir Chernov.
- According to the combination of factors , today's rate levels are fundamentally justified, and technically, a slight decline in foreign currencies and strengthening of the ruble, say, within 2% (up to 96 per $1) are not excluded until the end of the month. And then a moderate rebound is possible," agrees Mikhail Zeltser.
In the base case, the exchange rate will stay below 100 for another month - in the perspective of January-February, predicted Natalia Pyrieva, a leading analyst of "Tsifra Broker". However, according to her, the issue of Trump's actions and geopolitical picture remains acute, which may affect the dynamics of the national currency rate. Finam also expects the USD/RUB pair to trade in the range of 98-102 rubles in the next month.
- In fact, the area of 100 rubles per dollar is comfortable for the budget, exporters and currency buyers. A new wave of weakening is possible closer to the spring, - says analyst of FG Finam Alexander Potavin.
Nevertheless, if the geopolitical situation does not change significantly, the national currency will maintain a long-term trend of weakening until the end of the year, according to experts interviewed by "Izvestia". Gazprombank Investments estimates that by the end of 2025, the dollar will rise to 105-110 rubles due to trade balance distortions.
- In the baseline scenario, we consider the possibility of further export contraction under sanctions pressure with a stable volume of imports, which will provoke a liquidity shortage to meet market needs. If such a scenario is realized, we expect the national currency at the level of 110-115 rubles per US dollar by the end of 2025, - says Natalia Pyrieva from "Tsifra Broker".
Nevertheless, according to her, the situation may improve even due to partial lifting of sanctions or unblocking of Russian assets abroad.
