Gains losses: how the U.S. will reconsider support for allies
The revision of support for foreign countries and participation in international organizations could affect US relations with allies. On his return to the White House, Donald Trump has already signed dozens of high-profile decrees. Among them, in particular, the suspension of foreign aid for 90 days. Trump also announced the country's withdrawal from the WHO and the Paris climate agreement, and at the same time called on European NATO allies to increase defense spending by up to 5%. The European Commission is preparing for significant changes. How Trump's actions in the next four years will affect the relations between the United States and other countries - in the material of "Izvestia".
What was included in Trump's new decrees
Immediately after his inauguration, Donald Trump began signing new presidential decrees (about 200). At the same time, he canceled about 80, left by the previous president Joe Biden. Most of Trump's executive orders are aimed at buying domestic problems - the Republican clearly follows the principle of "America First". However, this is what significantly affects the country's new foreign policy course as well. For example, the US will soon withdraw from the Paris climate agreement again. Trump's executive order, issued during his first presidential term, was canceled by Joe Biden. Now the Republican has already canceled the Democrat's executive order.
The states will also leave the World Health Organization (WHO). Trump initiated the exit procedure during his first administration, but did not have time due to the end of his term. The WHO has reacted to the decision with regret. The US is looking for a free hand with regard to multilateral organizations as instruments of global governance, says Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor at the Department of Politics and Governance at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- The logic is as follows: the fewer obligations and restrictions in multilateral organizations, in which China, for example, has a great weight, the more freedom to determine the policy of these organizations through blackmail and pressure on them. This can be done both as an active member and as someone who will get his way by promising to return after the suspension of membership," Mikhail Mironyuk explained in a conversation with Izvestia.
The new US leader also suspended aid programs to other countries for 90 days. The restrictions are being imposed to make sure that they are in line with the policy of the new US administration. For the period of verification, the heads of relevant ministries and agencies must stop the relevant payments to foreign countries, non-governmental and international organizations. The Republican has repeatedly spoken out against foreign aid, despite the fact that it usually does not exceed 1-2% of the US budget. It is worth noting that Ukraine stands out significantly against the background of all other recipients of aid. Against this background, Kiev has reason to worry, because Trump's supporters in Congress have repeatedly questioned the advisability of sending it funds. Some Republicans have repeatedly called for an investigation into alleged corruption. "We supported Ukraine, but this conflict must end," new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on January 21.
The now-traditional criticism of NATO was not lacking. During his first presidential term, the Republican repeatedly pointed to the disproportionate contribution of the bloc's members. He also doubted that allies in the alliance would come to the aid of the United States in case of need, and threatened to withdraw from the organization. Earlier, Trump demanded an increase in the allies' contribution to NATO to 2.5% of GDP. After the inauguration - to 5%. "We spent $200 billion more on the Ukrainian conflict than NATO. It's ridiculous because it affects them much more," explained the US president.
Serious consequences for the global economy are likely to be the return of the Panama Canal to US control, something Trump appears to be extremely determined to do. He is sure of its unfair use by Panama, which, in his opinion, actually transferred the artery under the management of China. At the same time, it is worth noting that the high-profile idea to annex Greenland was not uttered by Trump at the inauguration. However, the Foreign Ministry of Denmark, which owns the territory, believes that it is too early to judge the settlement of the situation.
How the US president's decisions will affect their relations with allies
Suspending aid to foreign countries and withdrawing from international organizations and agreements could greatly affect US relations with its allies. Brussels, which also represents NATO, is already uncomfortable with the first steps of the new administration, points out Mikhail Mironyuk.
- Dependence in any alliance is bilateral. But the dependence on the US in this case is so strong that they will pay more for the alliance's goals and accept any additional obligations, as well as make concessions in many other areas. Brussels values the alliance very highly, so we will see if not 5%, then much higher costs, as well as other concessions in the foreseeable future," the expert said.
In his opinion, Trump thus seeks not to increase Europe's autonomy in the field of security, but, on the contrary, to increase its dependence on the United States, which implies, above all, "malleability" and controllability. The European Commission has already reacted and, to all appearances, will adapt. Thus, the head of the EC Ursula von der Leyen said that the world has entered a new era of fierce competition for technology and resources, which means that Europe needs to change in order to fit into this new era. It is worth noting that few European allies can afford 5% defense spending. It is also important to consider Trump's ideological factor.
- He dislikes globalists, liberals, and Greens very much, including many EU leaders who hold such positions. He makes it clear that America is not always ready to come and fight for European interests. It may also be related to the supposed imminent talks between Moscow and Washington on Ukraine," Vladimir Brovkin, an American historian and former Harvard University professor, told Izvestia.
There is also an economic background. During Trump's first term, relations between Washington and Brussels soured considerably due to the imposition of trade duties on a number of goods. On the other hand, one should not expect a cardinal deterioration of US relations with its allies: nobody canceled transatlantic solidarity, the expert noted.
It is the national interests of the United States that have become the main focus of the new Trump administration. If we look at the foreign policy of the United States during the time of George Washington, we can note that one of his main ideas is that America should not get involved in European affairs. This policy was followed by the US until 1917 when President Woodrow Wilson, who promised that the States would not enter World War I, simply cheated and did so. From then on, for the next 100 years, the U.S. became a liberal globalist power that must intervene whenever and wherever. In Brovkin's view, Trump wants to put an end to that and somewhat return to the position that America is preoccupied with itself first and foremost.
