Coca for an eye: conflict between rebel groups escalates in Colombia
In Colombia, the conflict between rebel groups with a history dating back to the 1960s has erupted with renewed vigor. Another confrontation has broken out in the northern region of Catatumbo, where a large amount of coca is grown. It is already known about dozens of dead and thousands of people forced to leave their homes. Read more about what happened, the causes of the conflict, as well as its resolution - in the material of "Izvestia".
The path of war
Last week, on January 17, Colombian President Gustavo Petro stopped negotiating with the oldest rebel group operating in the country - the National Liberation Army (ELN). This occurred after the rebels were accused of killing members of another rival group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC, or FARC). This led to a confrontation between the ELN and the FARC. The scene was the Catatumbo region in the north of the country and bordering Venezuela. This mountainous area is known for producing about 15% of Colombia's coca. On Monday, January 20, it was reported that as a result of clashes 80 people were killed, about 5 thousand were forced to leave their homes (some fled to neighboring regions and cities, others - in Venezuela), about 20 were kidnapped. On January 21, the number of victims already exceeded 100, the number of those who fled is not known exactly, according to different reports, it may vary from 11 thousand to 20 thousand people.
President Gustavo Petro of Colombia
Because of the confrontation between the ELN and the FARC, Gustavo Petro was forced to declare a state of emergency in the country. In addition, the Colombian president wrote that the ELN has chosen the path of war and this is exactly what it will get. The current clashes have become one of the most serious in Colombia's history since Gustavo Petro took office as president in 2022 and promised to "bring peace" to the country.
ELN is a left-wing radical organization founded in 1964. To date, it is the last major rebel group operating in Colombia.
The murder of a funeral clerk and the overthrow of the Left
Egor Lidovskoy, director of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Center, notes that both groups originally belonged to different social strata: the FARC was born among peasants, while ELN was born among the intellectual elite. The former fought to improve the lives of ordinary people, while the latter "wanted to build some kind of ideal Marxist state". Yegor Lidovskoy also drew attention to the fact that the ELN regarded the FARC's peace treaty with the government as a betrayal, and the fact that the number of dissidents became comparable to the number of rebels in the ELN only sharpened their competition.
- They are mainly arguing over the lands of the Catatumbo region - there are more than 22,000 hectares of coca plantations and important drug trafficking routes there, and both groups have long used the drug trade to finance their organizations. So in the end this is not an ideological dispute, but a war for finances," says the expert.
The reason for the current escalation was the murder of funeral director Miguel, his wife and young son on the road between Tibu (a municipality in northeastern Colombia) and Cucuta. FARC dissidents accused the ELN of killing innocent people in their territory. The ELN denies involvement in the crime.
- Despite the ELN's claims of non-involvement, according to my information from residents of this region of Colombia, Miguel was an accidental victim of a massacre by FARC dissidents - ELN members searched the region for members of a rival group on a list and killed them in their homes. This was the real cause of the conflict, and here we can assume a connection of events with the CIA, as the new US President Trump plans to overthrow the leftist presidents in Latin America to fully return the region to the US sphere of influence. And the current aggravation is certainly a blow to Petro's reputation," says Yegor Lidovskoy.
Political scientist Igor Pshenichnikov also points out that the two organizations are fighting for spheres of influence. The conflict has always existed, but now it has only grown in scale.
- The peace talks that ended with the signing of an agreement with the guerrilla groups are actually a sham," said Igor Pshenichnikov.
According to him, there was no peaceful settlement of the conflict in Colombia with the signing of the agreement. This is due to the fact that its roots, which lie in the problem of drug trafficking, have not been eliminated. Selling drugs, Igor Pshenichnikov explains, is a very profitable business for such a poor country, which is what peasants do to feed their families. However, this happens under the supervision of guerrilla organizations.
Separately it is worth mentioning the "war on drugs", declared by the U.S. back in the 70s of XX century and consists of financial aid to Colombia.
- If the Americans needed to stop drug trafficking, they would do it. But that doesn't happen because one in four people in America have tried or are on drugs. And this business is bigger than oil," Igor Pshenichnikov said.
Backstage negotiations and decades of conflict
To prevent conflict in the north of the country, Gustavo Petro has already imposed a state of emergency and sent about 5,000 military personnel to the region. As Igor Pshenichnikov notes, he had nothing else to do. The main question is what will happen next.
According to the political analyst, now the president has no other choice but to call on the factions to restore peace. He added, however, that behind-the-scenes negotiations may begin with the aim of reconciling the rebel organizations and cease-fire.
U.S. President Donald Trump
- If Petro does not take tough measures, the situation could turn into a serious reputational loss for the leftist forces. His approval rating fell below 40% as recently as last year, and his disapproval rating has risen to 60%. The current situation could make him the most unpopular president in Latin America. Petro's problem is that, having come on a wave of support for the ideas of socialism and anti-imperialism, he has not made any radical transformations of the situation in the country, and given the current tragedy, the right-wing has received new arguments for the ineffectiveness of the left," says Egor Lidovskoy.
Taking all this into account, as well as taking into account Trump's active support of right-wing movements in Latin America, it is unlikely that the leftists, in particular Gustavo Petro, will remain in power in Colombia, the expert concludes.
