Calculating the continent: South Africa urges Kiev not to abandon dialog with Moscow
Ukraine should not give up dialog with the Russian Federation, the South African embassy has told Izvestiya. In addition, the UN, according to Pretoria, should create appropriate conditions for it. It also reported that the heads of African states, including South Africa, are now discussing with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict. In 2023, a delegation of representatives from the continent has already met with both Putin and Zelensky, but their initiatives were virtually ignored in Kiev. What motivated African leaders and who can become a real mediator in the settlement of the conflict - in the material "Izvestia".
African leaders discuss conflict resolution with Russia and Ukraine
African leaders, who traveled to Russia and Ukraine in 2023 to discuss the crisis, continue to promote peace initiatives. The heads of state are still engaging the leaders of both countries in attempts to resolve the conflict, the South African embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.
- South Africa and African leaders remain committed to accelerating the search for peace and believe their initiative should be seen as complementary to peace initiatives launched by other parties. The strength of this mission is that African heads of state continue to engage both leaders in the search for a solution," the embassy said.
That delegation included the presidents of South Africa, Zambia, Comoros (as chair of the African Union at the time) and Senegal, the prime minister of Egypt, a representative of the Congolese president, and the Ugandan leader's special envoy at large. As a result, in its purest form, African peace initiatives in Ukraine were almost completely ignored. Volodymyr Zelensky said at the time that negotiations were possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops. Moscow, on the other hand, took a positive attitude to the initiative and promised to continue working in this direction.
In total, the mission presented 10 points of the peace initiative on the settlement, including the need to provide security guarantees and humanitarian support to the victims. The last point is of particular importance for Africa - the countries of the continent are not involved in the conflict, but suffer almost the most. The problem of global food security has become particularly acute. The anti-Russian sanctions have significantly complicated logistics, which immediately affected the cost of basic foodstuffs. The situation has been aggravated by the fact that a number of countries are experiencing drought. In particular, the worst one in the last 100 years has hit the region of South Africa against the background of abnormal warming of waters in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. According to the UN World Food Program (WFP), the disaster has affected more than 27 million people, with 21 million children suffering from malnutrition.
It is important to note that Africa views the conflict in Ukraine not as a struggle for democratic values, as it is described in Western countries, but rather as a confrontation between Russia and the West. This opinion was expressed by French journalist and editor-in-chief of Jeune Afrique magazine Francois Sudan. He emphasizes that the continent's leaders do not perceive Russia as a threat. The real threat for them is a humanitarian catastrophe.
- The main interest is to continue normal grain supplies to Africa. And, of course, the normalization of logistics in general, both to and from the continent," says Alexei Maslov, Director of the ISAAA of Moscow State University.
At the same time, Pretoria understands that in order to succeed in resolving the conflict, both sides, as well as other political players, including international organizations, need to be involved in the dialogue.
- South Africa continues to call on the UN and the international community to focus their efforts on creating conditions for dialog and mediation. South Africa continues to emphasize the importance for Ukraine to start considering engagement with the Russian side," the South African diplomatic mission in Russia added.
But Kiev is still skeptical about the negotiation process. Although in 2024, Zelensky said he agreed to go to a dialog even with Vladimir Putin. It is still unclear how this could be realized. In October 2022, Zelensky signed a decree banning any talks with Moscow during Putin's presidency. The Russian leader, in turn, said that Russia was ready to negotiate only with a legitimate representative of Ukraine - Zelensky 's presidential term expired in May 2024.
At the same time, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said on the day of Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 that Ukraine is ready to work with the United States to end hostilities. Trump, on the other hand, intends to meet with Putin, who, in turn, confirmed Moscow's readiness to discuss the Ukrainian crisis with Washington.
Can African countries become mediators on Ukraine
The activity of African countries in resolving a conflict that is far from them can be explained by the fact that they have no other levers of influence. The states do not possess powerful armed forces, and even less nuclear weapons, and therefore cannot participate in the settlement of the crisis from the position of force. In this regard, many took part in the peace conference in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, which was held on June 15-16, 2024, and even signed the final communiqué. However, not all African countries present joined the declaration. For example, South Africa and Libya did not support it. Later it became known that Rwanda withdrew its signature.
African countries have recently increased their political weight and can theoretically claim the status of a mediator in the negotiations on Ukraine. For example, the African Union, which unites 55 states of the continent, joined the G20 in September 2023. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted at the time, this will allow Africa to fully participate in the formation of the world agenda and in the work of global governance mechanisms. By the way, in 2025, South Africa took over the presidency of the G20. Other international platforms, such as BRICS, also allow us to be truly heard. For example, South Africa joined it back in 2011, and from 2024 Egypt and Ethiopia joined the association, and immediately in the status of full members.
- South Africa is so actively perceived because in many ways it acts as a part of BRICS and has much more weight. At the same time, we see that many leaders, such as Tanzania and Kenya, on the one hand, and Mali and Burkina Faso, on the other, expressed almost the same opinion, but nevertheless their voice was not heard," Alexei Maslov explained to Izvestia.
It should be noted that the initiatives of much more venerable mediators do not find a response from Ukraine and the Western countries that support it either. For example, China and Brazil. Their next joint initiative - the "Friends of Peace" platform created to discuss the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict - attracted mainly the countries of the Global South, including, of course, Africa. The final communiqué was signed by Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Kenya and Zambia, among others. As Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui told Izvestia, Western countries are not interested in such a format. Against this background, the African voice is unlikely to be heard.
Maghreb countries have also repeatedly spoken separately in favor of a peaceful settlement. In addition, Egypt has a fairly clear rigid position on the Ukrainian crisis: the need for negotiations and the cessation of any military action, Maslov notes.
So far, there are still much more concrete and likely candidates for organizing negotiations. It is quite possible that they will be held in Istanbul again. At least, the presidential administration has declared its readiness to provide a venue. It was in this Turkish city that Russia and Ukraine were closest to a peaceful settlement back in early 2022, but Kiev later abandoned the already virtually ready agreement, going along with the UK. At the same time, official Ankara has not yet put forward a concrete plan for negotiations. Confidence in Turkey's mediation is reinforced by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo. Following a meeting in Ankara with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he said that Turkey could host the talks between the main players. Fitzo, by the way, also offered Bratislava, though for negotiations at a lower level. Hungary, represented by Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, has also repeatedly put forward its candidacy. However, the Kremlin said in December 2024 that Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban had not discussed such a possibility.
