Friendly guys: why Slovakia and Turkey have become strategic partners
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo signed a strategic partnership agreement in Ankara on 20 January. They also discussed the settlement in Ukraine and gas transit via the Turkish Stream pipeline. Experts note that the agreement indicates Ankara's desire to implement the neo-Ottoman policy of expanding its economic and political influence in Eastern and Southeastern Europe. Slovakia, on the other hand, is trying to strengthen its sovereignty inside Europe, in particular, to strengthen its position to put pressure on Kiev. About the purpose of the visit and the prospects of cooperation between Turkey and Slovakia - in the material of "Izvestia".
What Fitzo negotiated about in Ankara
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed on January 20 a declaration on the establishment of strategic partnership between the two countries, as well as a bilateral framework military agreement. The Turkish leader confirmed that during the talks, the sides exchanged views on the conflict in Ukraine.
- As you know, Slovakia maintains contacts with both Russia and Ukraine. We agreed on the need for early peace so that the conflict does not deepen," Erdogan said.
At the same time, Fitzo noted that major countries should make efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
-The only thing we can do is to demand, push and ask the big players, and Turkey is a big player, to make every effort to start peace talks," the Slovak prime minister said.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo, left to right, during a welcoming ceremony, Jan. 20, 2025
Fitzo also called for the removal of rose-colored glasses to "be realistic about the content of the peace that can be achieved."
- We simply cannot expect in today's situation that Russia will leave the territory it controls. That is impossible. Just like the notion that Ukraine will be a NATO member is impossible, it is not the Slovak government that says this, today it is already a reality," the politician said.
Separately, Fitzo and Erdogan dwelled on the issue of Russian gas supplies to Slovakia. In particular, the head of Turkey said that he expects to discuss this problem this week during a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin.
-Since Ukraine has cut off Slovakia's gas, I said let's finally meet Slovakia's gas needs by reaching an agreement with Russia, " Erdogan said.
Fitzo thanked Erdogan for the opportunity to use the Turkish Stream. According to him, Bratislava could use the capacities of this gas pipeline, but this requires the readiness of the Russian side to increase the volume of gas supplied through this direction.
Strengthening cooperation with Turkey is quite justified on the part of Slovakia, given Bratislava's desire to strengthen its sovereignty within the EU, explained Vladimir Avatkov, Doctor of Political Sciences, Head of the Department of Middle and Post-Soviet East at the Institute of National Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with Izvestia.
- For Slovakia, as for the states of Eastern and Southeastern Europe, it is very important to develop cooperation with neighboring non-European Union countries, such as Turkey. Ankara possesses gas, which it buys from Russia, among others. Building ties between Bratislava and Ankara increases Slovakia's energy security against the background of decreasing gas supplies via Ukraine. In general, we are talking about Slovakia's ties with a state that has the second largest army in NATO and pursues a fairly sovereign foreign policy, " he said.
Ankara's strategic interests should not be forgotten either. From the middle of the 16th century to the end of the 17th century, the southern part of what is now Slovakia was under the Ottoman Empire. Taking advantage of Brussels' inability to fully control the entire EU space, Ankara seeks to strengthen its influence over the territories of the Balkans, Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
- Turkey seeks to implement a neo-Ottoman policy to expand its economic, political, cultural and scientific and educational influence in the spaces that were once part of the Ottoman Empire. For Turkey, this is a strategic part of its policy today," the expert noted.
Prospects for gas cooperation between Ankara and Bratislava
Fitzo's visit to Ankara takes place against the background of the aggravation of his relations with Volodymyr Zelensky because of Kiev's unwillingness to transit Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine. After Zelensky rudely rebuffed Fitzo's invitation to discuss the issue on the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Slovak leader threatened to veto further European financial aid to Ukraine.
Slovakia's, as well as Hungary's, worries about its energy security only intensified on September 11 after Ukrainian drones attacked the infrastructure of the Russkaya compressor station in Krasnodar Krai, which supplies gas to the Turkish Stream pipeline. The Russian Defense Ministry, which reported the destruction of all the aircraft, stressed at the time that Kiev's goal was precisely "to stop gas supplies to European countries." On January 21, at a meeting in Bratislava, Robert Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban intend to discuss the safety of the gas pipeline.
Itis quite possible that the topic of pressure on Ukraine was also discussed at the meeting in Ankara, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
- Slovakia has so far done nothing to put pressure on Ukraine. Although this country remains one of the largest suppliers of electricity and the Slovaks threatened the Ukrainians with the termination of these supplies, they have not decided to take such a step. Apparently, they do not dare to put pressure on Ukraine alone and are trying to create some kind of coalition. For this purpose, they are negotiating with all the participants, and Ankara is an important player," he added.
Itis important to understand that Kiev's refusal to pump Russian gas through its territory will deprive Slovakia of €400-500 million in 2025 , which it received for gas transit to other EU countries. Robert Fitzo himself confirmed this on December 27, saying that Zelensky had offered him at a summit in Brussels to offset these losses with frozen Russian assets on the condition that Slovakia would support Ukraine's accession to NATO.
Will the EU be able to give up Russian gas
In any case, according to Fitzo, cutting off supplies "would have drastic consequences" for the entire EU. The figures speak for themselves. In 2024, Europe received 32.1 billion cubic meters of Russian pipeline gas. Of this amount, 15.4 billion cubic meters were supplied to Western and Central Europe via transit through Ukraine, while the remaining 16.7 billion cubic meters went to Southern and Southeastern Europe via the Turkish Stream pipeline.
According to Igor Yushkov, the capacity of the Turkish Stream to make up for the missing gas volumes in 2025 is rather limited. Already in 2024 this gas pipeline was operating at full capacity and even exceeded its design capacity. Theoretically, the capacity of Blue Stream allows to transfer 2 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkish Stream directly to Turkey. And then the freed capacities of Turkish Stream can be used for transit of Russian gas to Europe. But, again, we are only talking about a volume not exceeding 2 billion cubic meters of gas, while the rest of the volume the EU countries will have to look elsewhere.
On November 1, Bloomberg reported that companies from Hungary and Slovakia are close to signing a contract for the supply of 12-14 billion cubic meters per year from Azerbaijan through the gas pipeline network of Ukraine. In particular, such a contract implies swap operations between Azerbaijan and Russia, namely: gas produced in Russia, but owned by Baku, will pass through the same pipeline network, which was previously supplied to the EU through Ukraine.
The expert reminded that it is extremely difficult to adopt sanctions against gas at the EU level.
- For the sanctions to be approved, the votes of all EU members are needed. Naturally, neither Hungary nor Slovakia will vote in favor of giving up Russian pipeline gas," he concluded.
Moldova and Transdniestria were the first to feel the consequences of the suspension of transit through Ukraine. At the same time, while Moldova has already started test purchases of gas from Bulgaria through the "Trans-Balkan corridor", Transnistria has essentially found itself in a blockade. This has already given Chisinau an opportunity to blackmail Tiraspol. Thus, the other day Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that Chisinau is ready to provide financial assistance to Transnistria only after the withdrawal from the territory of the region of the Russian military, which should be replaced by a civilian mission under the auspices of the UN or the EU.
Meanwhile, on January 20, the European Commission promised to present a roadmap for the EU's complete withdrawal from Russian fossil fuels by mid-March. The EC noted that the EU has already completely abandoned Russian coal, the majority of Russian oil supplies, and 2/3 of Russian gas. But according to The Financial Times, which cites EU sources, Brussels is not in a position to increase imports of more expensive LNG from the US anytime soon and will therefore be forced to import Russian blue fuel in the same way. At least for now, according to the analytical company Kpler, for the first 15 days of this year 27 European countries imported 837.3 thousand tons of LNG from Russia, which is a record if compared to the figures for the same period last year, when 760.1 thousand tons were purchased.
