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Reaching the Ceiling: Washington Accused Moscow of Violating the Limitations of the START Treaty
Washington suspected Moscow of failing to comply with the restrictions of the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START). The State Department's report, which was presented to Congress, says that this factor was considered a serious threat. Russia has not yet commented on the new US accusations. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry has regularly stated that the rearmament of Russia's strategic nuclear forces fits within the limits established under the START Treaty. For more details, see Izvestiya's article.
Reached the ceiling
"Based on information available as of December 31, 2024, the United States cannot confirm that the Russian Federation is in compliance with the terms of the New START treaty," says the report, which the U.S. State Department provided to Congress.
In particular, the document reports, as if Washington cannot confirm that last year Moscow adhered to the restrictions provided for by the agreements, because the Russian Federation stopped notifying the United States about the status of its weapons, not allowing inspectors to the facilities.
Under the agreements, the combined numbers of each side's strategic offensive weapons should not exceed 700 for deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and deployed heavy bombers; 1,550 for warheads on deployed ICBMs, 800 for deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, deployed and non-deployed SLBM launchers, and deployed and non-deployed heavy bombers.
"The United States assesses with a high degree of confidence that Russia has not engaged in any large-scale activity beyond the treaty limits in 2024. However, Russia was likely close to the deployed warhead limit for most of the year and may have exceeded the deployed warhead limit by a small amount during part of 2024. Thus, this represents a serious problem in terms of treaty compliance," the publication agreed.
In what way Moscow could exceed the ceilings of the treaty, the document of the State Department is not reported. At the same time, the authors of the publication refer to a secret annex, which contains additional information on this subject.
Despite the accusation against Moscow, the State Department emphasized that this "does not threaten the national security interests of the United States."
Until 2023, the US and Russia exchanged data on the number of strategic offensive weapons twice a year - in March and September. But Russia subsequently suspended its participation in the treaty for two reasons: circumstances have changed radically from 2010, when the agreements were concluded, and the U.S. is in "substantial" violation of the treaty's clauses.
The Russian authorities have repeatedly said that they are ready to continue to adhere to the quantitative restrictions under the treaty, but only if the U.S. does the same. On February 28, 2023, Russia stopped providing the United States with data.
While the treaty is still in force
The Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty expires in February 2026. Three years ago, the United States and Russia discussed the possibility of concluding new agreements to replace the current ones, but amid the Ukrainian conflict, the dialog came to naught.
The administration of U.S. President Joseph Biden called for a return to the discussion, but Russia found it unacceptable to single out these issues specifically from the entire volume of accumulated problems.
The Russian Federation has repeatedly stated that a return to discussion is possible only if the United States reconsiders the hostile policy it pursues toward Russia. There has been no official comment from Moscow on the new U.S. State Department report yet.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a press conference following his participation in the High-Level Week of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in New York that Moscow is fulfilling its obligations under the START Treaty and is not building up its nuclear arsenal based on limits. The Russian Foreign Minister assured that the Russian Federation remains committed to its obligations, which are valid until 2026.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addresses the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, September 29, 2024
Last December, in comments to RIA Novosti, Sergei Lavrov said that Russia was "monitoring Washington's actions in the most careful way." At the same time, what will happen after February 2026 and whether the treaty will be extended, the minister did not say. "We don't see any reason to make any predictions now. A lot can still happen in the coming year. So at this stage it would be premature and unwise to announce our possible moves in this sensitive area," summarized the Foreign Minister.
What experts think
Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the International Security Center of IMEMO RAS and co-founder of the Watfor project, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that despite the lack of previous control in the sphere of nuclear weapons and the current escalation in Russia-US relations, a new agreement on strategic offensive arms between Russia and the US will be signed sooner or later.
- Key among the new conditions should be some consideration of the capabilities of U.S. allies, both nuclear and non-nuclear. The domestic concept of the "security equation" remains relevant. At the same time, there is no question of a universal treaty that would solve all problems once and for all. On the contrary, it would be advisable to form a complementary system of various treaties and agreements, including multilateral ones," the political scientist believes.
Yars autonomous launcher for the Yars GTRK
Elena Panina, director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies - RUSSTRAT, believes that in fact Russia's military and political leadership is interested in strategic stability talks. "But on our terms. There are two of them: general de-escalation and taking into account, along with the US, the nuclear potentials of Britain and France, the US NATO allies. Fair demands have been put forward," the political scientist noted.
She explained that under the START Treaty, the US can have 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads. "Britain has 250-270 nuclear warheads, France - 300. Total: 2,100-2,120. And Russia has only 1,550. Simple arithmetic, the Western bloc outnumbers us 1.37 times," the analyst summarized in her Telegram channel.
Alexander Yermakov, a researcher at the Primakov Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the United States itself was not ready to further reduce strategic nuclear weapons without linking them to other topics.
French submarine of the Triumphant type
"First of all, Washington is concerned about the sharp growth of China's nuclear potential - during Donald Trump's first term, for some time Beijing's involvement in strategic arms control was a prerequisite for at least the extension of the START Treaty," the political scientist explained.
In his opinion, a simple coincidence also played a negative role in the fate of the START Treaty - inspections under it were suspended in early 2020 by common decision due to the coronavirus pandemic.
"They would probably have been restored in the usual situation in 2022, the parties agreed on the format, possible additional security measures, but the sharp deterioration of relations also affected this, initially purely technical dialog. A separate problem was the sanctions measures of Western countries against Russia, which included a ban on flights of Russian commercial and government aircraft in their airspace," the expert believes.
He added that Washington then claimed that it would have allowed the flight of the plane with inspectors. "But it seems that it could not guarantee operational authorizations from its junior allies, which means that the suddenness of inspections would suffer. At least there is no talk of equality among the parties to the treaty. Other than boorishness, one cannot call the remarks voiced by the American side that the Russian side could use commercial flights with connections in third countries quite seriously," the specialist summarized.
