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- Corrective unconscious: EU wants to extend sanctions against Russia, but looks to Washington
Corrective unconscious: EU wants to extend sanctions against Russia, but looks to Washington
The European Union is looking for ways to extend the anti-Russian sanctions that expire on January 31. The problem lies in Hungary's position. Viktor Orban threatened the members of the association to block the prolongation. Against the background of Donald Trump's rise to power in the United States and changes in the global geopolitical landscape, Budapest's threats no longer look like mere bargaining. This means that the EU leadership must urgently look for alternatives. Izvestia found out what they have at their disposal and what the King of Belgium has to do with it.
Bargaining stage
On December 6, Viktor Orbán threatened the European authorities with vetoing the adoption of the seven-year EU budget if Hungarian funds from the EU funds are not unblocked. The amount the Hungarian prime minister is talking about is €12.5 billion, which he said "meets the requirements" of the national economy until the end of 2026.
Two weeks after this statement, according to Bloomberg, Orban told his colleagues at an EU summit that he was "not ready to move forward" on the issue of extending sanctions against Russia, whose six-month term ends Jan. 31. Until then, the relevant decisions had been made in a semi-automatic mode. Now clarity on this issue will appear after the inauguration of Donald Trump.
The third item is energy. On January 11, the Biden administration imposed a package of "the most significant sanctions" against Russian oil and gas suppliers. An agreement on gas transit through Ukraine was terminated at the beginning of the year, and a week and a half before that, the EU set a price ceiling on blue fuel as a preventive measure. All of this together, Orban believes, is bringing Europe closer to an energy crisis (the AFU attack on a compressor station of Turkish Stream, Hungary's only remaining source of Russian gas, is also worth mentioning here).
"At all costs we must prevent the destruction of this artery that feeds the Hungarian economy," he said in an interview with Radio Kossuth.
Hungary's prime minister has repeatedly spoken in favor of a rational attitude toward Russia and a return to adequate trade relations with it, for which he has long been characterized as "pro-Russian" in the European media. The latter is a common misconception, emphasizes Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, an expert of the Valdai Club and a senior researcher at the IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
- On the one hand, Orban needs to coordinate his actions with Trump (if for some reason they have not been coordinated before). On the other hand, it is important for him to show the strength and coherence of his policy with the new US president. After all, for a long time Orbán has been ignored in Europe, and now he is demonstrating whose opinion he really cares more. One should not look for sympathy for Russia in his actions; he is guided by national interests. Hungary has repeatedly spoken and voted against Moscow on a number of issues. But Orban understands the real meaning of sanctions, which is not to "punish Russia," but to isolate it and try to stop its development. And he sees no rational grain in this, so he demands revision of the restrictions or their abolition," the expert points out.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the EU summit in Brussels
However, there has already been a situation similar to the current one in the relations between Orban and the EU leadership. In January-February last year, Hungary also refused to support the decision of Brussels - in terms of allocating financial aid to Kiev. Subsequently, after negotiations with Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen, the EU made some concessions, and Budapest lifted its veto. At the same time, this case can be called a precedent with some tension. After all, the "Trump factor," on which the Hungarian prime minister is known to rely, did not figure in the discussion at that time.
Between two big fires
Brussels is also looking in the direction of the 47th president of the United States, intending, as the Financial Times reports, to retain, if not all, at least some of the restrictions imposed on Moscow. Trump, as noted, is mulling a partial liberalization of sanctions policy against Russia. And this is only one side of the issue of future relations, because the new master of the White House has repeatedly threatened the European Union with a new trade war.
By the way, Vladimir Putin called the lifting of all Western sanctions against Russia one of the conditions for a ceasefire and a transition to negotiations.
Not counting the array of sectoral sanctions, the most interesting case in this light is the story of €190 billion of frozen Russian assets. The profits from these funds should be used to repay the loan to Ukraine (the very same €50 billion). At the moment, they are kept in the central depository Euroclear in Brussels. According to the British press, if the sanctions cannot be extended, then, among other things, these funds will return to Russia "the next day".
And then they will have to resort to the very last resort - to appeal to the Belgian king. The fact is that since 1944 in Belgium, as well as in a number of other countries, there is a legislative act that allows the sovereign to initiate the blocking of the withdrawal of any assets outside the country. The king's request must be approved by the government.
This kind of idea has a weak prospect. Belgium runs the risk of eventually facing a lawsuit from Russia. After all, the kingdom has already violated the provisions of the Investment Protection Treaty signed with the USSR in 1989.
In addition to the already received troubles, Euroclear also expects separate troubles in this case. In December, the company lost the second lawsuit from a private investor for $9.5 million (and there are more than 100 of them in Russian courts) and is suffering very tangible reputational losses.
With the election of Trump, the confrontation between right-wing conservatives and globalists has reached a new level, and this adjusts strategies, states Vladimir Krotkov, a professor at the Political Science Department of the State University of Russia.
- Globalists within the framework of the Ukrainian crisis are moving by inertia. They, despite Trump's return, still have large-scale resources. Nevertheless, they will adapt to the new circumstances. After all, dependence on the US will not go anywhere, but will only increase. Plus - the need to confirm their legitimacy. Therefore, one can imagine, in one form or another, a change in the sanctions pressure on Russia. But this, of course, is a matter of time, and in the end, the overall picture of interaction will not change dramatically," the expert says.
