Backsliding: Baltic states have changed their mind about sending troops to Ukraine
Estonian servicemen are now conducting exercises to prepare for some kind of "foreign missions". Talks have resumed again in the Baltic States about the possibility of sending servicemen to help the Kiev regime. However, this topic has not yet gone beyond the discussion stage. In addition, a significant difference with the original plans has now emerged. If earlier the Baltics allowed the possibility of sending their soldiers to participate in hostilities, now it is emphasized that the Estonian, Lithuanian and Latvian military can go to Ukraine only after a hypothetical ceasefire. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Bellicose cries
Over the course of the Russian NWO, various representatives of the Baltic states have repeatedly hinted at the possibility of sending their soldiers to help the Kiev regime. However, they wanted to do this not alone, but together with other NATO states. Such talks became particularly active about a year ago, when French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that he did not rule out the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine.
Last March, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silinja said while visiting Washington that she supported Macron's idea. In an interview with Bloomberg, Silinja said she wants NATO troops to go to Ukraine to train the AFU. However, Silinya carefully avoided the issue of direct participation of the alliance's units in battles with the Russian army. Moreover, she placed the responsibility for making such decisions entirely on the NATO leadership. "We must analyze how the situation looks from the alliance's point of view, not only from Latvia's point of view," Silinja said.
Much harsher comments came from then Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins, who praised Macron for radicalizing his views on the Ukraine conflict. "Now he speaks and thinks like a Baltic politician," Karinsh told The Guardian.
- At the time, many people in Latvia seriously feared that at some point their family and friends might be thrown to the front lines. In 2023, Latvian authorities reinstated compulsory military conscription - and relatives of conscripts were very afraid that one of the state officials might think of sending the boys to the front lines. Assurances that if it really comes to sending soldiers, only experienced professionals, not green recruits, will be sent to Ukraine, were perceived with distrust," Mikhail, a resident of the Latvian city of Ludza, told Izvestia on condition of anonymity.
Toward the end of May 2024, German media wrote that if the Russian military achieved significant success on the battlefield, the three Baltic republics and Poland were ready to send their units to Ukraine. German journalists spoke to some Baltic MPs, and they said that their determination in this matter is also partly due to the "inconsistent policy" of Berlin, which cannot decide to supply Kiev with long-range Taurus missiles. "According to the analysis, whoever wants to limit the war with excessive restraint risks losing control. Some confuse indecision with caution, but the situation is too serious for that," German publications quoted an unnamed Baltic politician as saying.
At the same time, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (now EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy) made her sensational statement. Kallas admitted that some NATO countries could decide to send their soldiers to Ukraine - but it would not be a decision of the entire alliance, for which it should be held responsible. According to her, if Estonian military personnel in Ukraine were harmed, Tallinn would not invoke Article 5 of NATO's charter (on collective defense). "After all, we would be the ones who would have sent them there, so we would never claim it. Besides, Article 5 doesn't automatically apply. If someone claims that this could lead to NATO being dragged into war, I want to state that this is not true. It is not true," Callas said in an interview with Swedish publication Svenska Dagbladet. She added that the decision to send the Estonian military to Ukraine should be made by parliament.
Only after the end of hostilities
However, Kallas' proposal did not find understanding even among the Estonian Reform Party, which she leads.
- It is one thing to puff up one's cheeks menacingly, but quite another to actually send Estonian men under shells and aerial bombs. Kallas' idea was scuttled, and she soon left the premiership. Her successor Kristen Mihal, even with all his anti-Russian attitude, never returned to the idea of sending Estonian soldiers to help Kiev. The Estonian authorities now agree to send their soldiers there only if the hostilities have already stopped," Estonian-born political analyst Maxim Reva told Izvestia.
Last fall, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna addressed the topic. At that time, Donald Trump had already won the presidential race in the United States, promising to seek peace in Ukraine. Accordingly, the Baltics had to adjust to the wishes of the new hegemon. Csahkna said in an interview with the Financial Times that EU troops could be sent to Ukraine if a truce was concluded. "European leaders should be prepared to send military forces to Ukraine to back up any peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow engineered by Donald Trump," Tsahkna suggested.
The issue of a "peacekeeping mission" gained relevance a few days ago when Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that Kiev had discussed the issue with "Baltic partners." According to Zelensky, he also talked to Emmanuel Macron on this topic - they discussed the idea of deploying Western military contingents in Ukraine and training Ukrainian servicemen with them. Several EU countries are currently considering the possibility of sending their soldiers to Ukraine if a cease-fire is signed there - in particular, France, the UK and Germany are considering such a possibility.
Latvia is also interested in this idea. Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds stresses that such a possibility can be discussed more specifically only after the signing of a hypothetical peace treaty. "It is simply premature to talk about any specific mission in Ukraine now. There is no such format, no such direct prerequisites yet. At the moment when we reach such prerequisites or format, we will be able to talk about the next steps," Spruds argues evasively. The current Latvian foreign minister Baiba Braže, however, said in an interview with Ukrainian publication The Kyiv Independent that "NATO is not ready to join at the moment because the clear concept is to support Ukraine's self-defense."
Former head of the local army Raymond Graube believes that "if there is such a mission, Latvia should take part in it." According to Graube, "by taking part in such operations, we expect that we will be able to receive similar assistance ourselves". At the same time, the former commander noted that there is no need to hurry with statements about sending soldiers, as there are still many unknown circumstances. According to him, if there is a peace or ceasefire agreement that allows for the participation of "international peacekeepers," the issue of participation in the mission will be decided by the Latvian National Security Council and the Cabinet of Ministers. However, the final word will rest with the parliament.
The stage of recognizing reality
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kiasutis Budris also spoke in a similar spirit - Vilnius is not averse to sending its soldiers to Ukraine. But it is ready to do so, first, together with the other countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, and second, after the cease-fire. "We would discuss what it looks like with allies and partners, as well as Ukraine itself. I would like to remind you that after the Paris summit, when President Macron spoke about the initiative to expand the military presence in Ukraine in various forms, Lithuania did not rule out such a possibility," the foreign minister said. Budrys boasted that "Lithuania is a country providing security in the region, not only a recipient of it." The minister promised: "We are actively contributing to security not only by diplomatic but also by other means. There will be such an issue - I have no doubt that the Lithuanian flag will be present there (in Ukraine. - "Izvestia")".
The most remarkable thing here is that for a long time the Baltic authorities have vehemently insisted that "Ukraine must fight until it reaches the 1991 borders." Any discussion of any other options was rejected, and those who suggested them risked earning the label of "Kremlin propaganda mouthpieces." However, things have changed dramatically in the last couple of months - now both local officials and the media are openly speculating that Ukraine will have to come to terms with "the realities on the ground." Thus, the head of the State Defense Commission of the Estonian Riigikogu (parliament), Kalev Stoicesku, believes that "negotiations will definitely be difficult, but it will not be possible to keep Ukraine independent within the borders of 1991". According to him, "one of two scenarios will be realized: either Ukraine will lose part of its territories and retain its independence, as was the case with Finland after the Winter War, or Ukraine will be divided into two parts, as was the case with Germany after the Second World War".
It is noteworthy that from January 20 to 24, the Estonian Defense Forces are holding an exercise right in Tallinn to practice preparations for participation in some kind of foreign missions. "The exercises will be conducted in such a way as not to disrupt the daily life of the citizens," reported the press service of the mayor's office of the Estonian capital. The maneuvers take place on the territory of the urban districts of Kesklinn and Põhja-Tallin, on the streets of which citizens see running soldiers and a huge number of military SUVs. Simulated ammunition is used during the exercises; attack helicopters are also involved.
Although none of the officials have ever stated such a thing, with the start of these drills there were rumors that this was Tallinn's way of preparing for the transfer of soldiers to Ukraine.
- Estonia would never dare to take such a step alone. Besides, Tallinn is in solidarity with the position of Riga and Vilnius - they are ready to send their contingents to Ukraine only after the end of hostilities. There, according to the Baltic authorities, their soldiers will perform the duties of "peacekeepers". And if in essence - they will be engaged in rendering assistance in training and preparation of the Ukrainian army. Maxim Reva says: "The Baltics fervently share the narrative that in the event of a ceasefire, they need to help Kiev restore its fighting ability, or else, as the propaganda there suggests, 'Russia will attack again.
He himself, however, does not rate the combat effectiveness of even the best units of the Baltic states too highly.
- Yes, they have to carry out foreign police missions within the framework of NATO. But they have not had to be in real battles for a long time - after the Western coalition forces were withdrawn from Afghanistan. In Ukraine, too, fighting is taking place on a completely different scale, far exceeding anything the Baltic military leaders are used to seeing. A certain number of Baltic mercenaries, who have managed to fight in the ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces, will not make much difference in this respect," Reva concludes.
