Goodbye, youth: Ukraine prepares for mobilization of 18-year-olds
There is growing talk in Ukraine and in the West that Kiev urgently needs to lower the mobilization age from the current 25 to 18 in order to replenish the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In mid-January, Volodymyr Zelensky made a step in this direction - he obliged teenagers to enter their data into the register of conscripts. "Izvestia" dealt with what to expect next in this matter.
AFU retreating in Donbass
The Russian army continues to squeeze the AFU, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reported that the Russian Armed Forces occupy about 30 square kilometers of territory every day. At the same time, the pace has noticeably accelerated: if in the first quarter of last year, 407 square kilometers of territory came under control, in the fourth quarter - already 4377 square kilometers. Most successes are recorded in the south of the Donetsk people's republic, where dozens of villages and several towns have been taken.
Among the main reasons is called the shortage of personnel in the AFU. Thus, Andrei Belousov emphasized that the staffing of the Ukrainian army does not exceed 45-50%. "This is a great merit of our soldiers and officers, commanders of troop groups and their military management bodies, as well as the General Staff", - he noted.
The Ukrainian military is also complaining about the shortage of soldiers. For example, the commander of the widely publicized 3rd Assault Brigade of the AFU, Andriy Biletsky, said that his unit has 3-5,000 men, but has to fight for a division of up to 25,000 men. "We are given absolutely inadequate tasks: the brigade has to hold a front of about 50 kilometers," he said.
In addition, Ukrainian commanders complain about the increase in the average age of soldiers. These recruits often have health problems, plus it is more difficult for them to master modern equipment, including various types of drones. "They send me people over 50 who have doctors' certificates, but they have to serve," a commander of the 65th brigade of the AFU complained to The Economist.
The West demands to conscript young people
Under such conditions, US representatives are increasingly demanding that the Ukrainian authorities lower the mobilization age from the current 25 to 18 years. Interestingly, last fall Western media reported on these discussions without mentioning specific names. For example, Reuters quoted an anonymous U.S. official as saying that the Russians would be unstoppable without the conscription of young people. "Mobilization could make a significant difference if we are looking at the battlefield," he reasoned.
December, however, was followed by some quite frank public statements. For example, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken urged Kiev to make "tough decisions." "We believe that getting young people involved in the war is necessary. Right now, [Ukrainians] between the ages of 18 and 25 are not taking part in the fighting. And this is very important, because even with money and ammunition, there must be people on the front lines to counter Russian aggression," he said.
At the time, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller noted that without the conscription of young people, Kiev would receive less support. "At the end of the day, the Ukrainians have to make a decision about the composition of the armed forces. What we have made clear to them is that if they provide additional forces to fight, we and our allies will be ready to equip and train them," he emphasized.
In January, the US assistant to the president for national security, Jake Sullivan, called for lowering the mobilization age. According to him, Ukrainian legislation has evolved before: last spring the age was lowered from 27 to 25, so it is easier to do it now. "Ultimately Ukraine will have to make this sovereign decision. We make it very clear that live force is a matter of acute concern," he noted.
Interestingly, President Zelensky publicly rejected this highly unpopular idea in Ukraine every time. According to him, Kiev's Western partners should focus not on mobilization, but on equipping already formed brigades and allocating additional aid. "The goal should be to save as many lives as possible, not to keep weapons in warehouses," he reasoned.
According to a number of testimonies, however, the lowering of the mobilization age is indeed being prepared. For example, in mid-January, Zelensky signed a decree requiring 17-year-old Ukrainian youths to register for military service; otherwise, they face a fine of 17,000 to 25,000 hryvnias ($400-600). In addition, Nazariy Volianskyi, an adviser to the Verkhovna Rada committee on economic development, said that the decision will be made in January-March, military units are already allegedly preparing to receive new recruits.
Zelensky is waiting for Trump's decisions
In reality, the case will apparently depend on further developments. In the United States next week, Donald Trump, who during the election campaign talked a lot about the desire to reconcile Russia and Ukraine, will take over the presidency. It is clear that if hostilities are suspended, the Ukrainian authorities will not need to lower the mobilization age. On the contrary, it will be a harmful step, because if martial law is lifted, presidential elections will become inevitable, and the willingness to send young people to the front will hurt the remnants of Zelensky's rating.
If the hostilities continue, the lowering of the mobilization age will apparently be inevitable. At the same time, it is difficult to predict further developments now. Many things point to the fact that the new U.S. administration will twist Kiev's arms. For example, Trump's future national security adviser Mike Walz said in one of his recent interviews that for a sustainable peace, the AFU must stabilize the front line, and to do this, 18-year-olds must be drafted. "We want the manpower problems to be solved," he said.
If Kiev does make a painful decision, the mobilization of 18-25-year-olds will apparently have a number of peculiarities. On the one hand, these people used to consider themselves protected from conscription, and therefore they did not hide from government agencies and obediently updated their data in the TCC. Accordingly, military commissars will be able to find them relatively easily. On the other hand, the age and gender pyramid of Ukraine shows that there are far fewer young people in the country than middle-aged and older people, and therefore the draft potential of this group is relatively low.
Experts predict raids on teenagers
Political scientist Oleksandr Dudchak believes that Kiev will lower the mobilization age in the near future.
- Nothing prevents the Ukrainian authorities from doing so. Moreover, both the outgoing and incoming American administration insists on it. The work in the information space has been done, this topic has been circulating in the Ukrainian media for a long time, and people, in general, have got used to this prospect. I do not expect any protests, a brutal dictatorship has been established in the country, all possible protests will be eliminated at the nascent stage," he said.
Dmitry Zhuravlev, scientific director of the Institute of Regional Problems, sees two options for the development of events.
- The current scenario is simple. Either the parties will make peace under American pressure, or the Ukrainian authorities will really be forced to lower the mobilization age. In the case of the second option, I see two consequences. On the one hand, the demographic situation in Ukraine will sharply deteriorate. On the other, anti-war protest sentiments will rise sharply. Mom and dad of an 18-year-old boy will never understand and will not accept sending their son to the front, propaganda can do nothing here. In this case, a maternal Maidan in Kiev is quite realistic," he says.
