The Baltic Nine: How NATO is making the region the next "flashpoint" for Russia
A meeting of eight Baltic NATO member states and a representative of the European Union was held in Helsinki. As a result of the meeting, intentions to intensify the militarization of the region were declared. Experts agree that after the transformation of the Ukrainian crisis into an exclusively European project, the Baltic Sea will become the next zone of geopolitical confrontation with Russia. At least the regional members of the alliance and external players have already started preparations for this. "Izvestia" has studied the details.
Money at the bottom
On January 14, the summit of the Baltic States and NATO took place in the capital of Finland. At its conclusion, the leaders of the states made a number of statements that naturally fit into the overall strategy of actions implemented over the past year. Alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the launch of a 90-day Baltic Sentry mission to patrol the Baltic Sea. It will involve frigates, patrol aircraft as well as maritime drones. Earlier, it was reported that up to 10 NATO ships have already embarked on missions to protect infrastructure at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. In addition, the alliance's allies will integrate their tracking equipment into the existing NATO system.
Just a day before the meeting in Helsinki, another accident occurred with the breakage of a cable running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. This time NordBalt, which provides electricity to Sweden and Lithuania, was affected. This is the third incident of this kind since the beginning of November. It is noteworthy that the main suspect in all cases was the same vessel - the Chinese dry cargo ship Yi Peng 3. However, despite the fact that the investigation is ongoing and no one has been identified as responsible for the series of incidents, European media and politicians have already discovered a "Russian trace" in what happened.
To annoy, but not to anger
Following the summit, politicians made several other statements, the general meaning of which was summarized in the need to solve two main tasks: to protect surface and underwater infrastructure, as well as to fight the so-called Russian "shadow fleet".
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk even said that the parties were going to work on "legal mechanisms that will allow controlling vessels outside territorial waters," which, he said, is now "the biggest problem."
NATO Baltic Sea Region Summit in Helsinki, January 14, 2025
The prospect of developing such mechanisms looks doubtful. The only legal possibility to detain ships in neutral waters is to obtain permission for such actions from Moscow, which is not expected. The more dangerous for the allies looks the initiative put forward in November by Estonia: to block Russia's access from the Baltic to the world's oceans altogether, which could lead to an open military conflict. The attempt to logistically isolate the Kaliningrad region will also be met with an appropriate response. The updated nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation defines such actions as a reason to implement nuclear deterrence. Of course, we can hardly speak of a full-fledged blockade of Russian ports, which, according to the norms of international law, is an act of aggression.
However, as experts point out, such tactics are quite capable of harming Russian exports through constant detentions or even arrests. This means that there are ample opportunities for various kinds of provocations to eventually create a zone of constant tension and diversion of resources for the opponent. The Kremlin's response is likely to be the introduction of the practice of military escort of merchant ships, which in turn dramatically increases the likelihood of extremely dangerous incidents.
Political scientist Stanislav Stremidlovsky notes that the information background for the realization of this strategy is already in full swing.
- We can see how more and more information occasions for military rhetoric are being created. I do not rule out that provocations will continue and will become more serious in scale. For example, the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline runs along the Baltic Sea bed, with the help of which Poland has ceased to be a consumer of Russian gas. In the light of what happened with Nord Stream, this is an acceptable goal," the expert points out.
German interest
All the states of the region are involved in the process of militarization of the Baltic Sea. First of all, we are talking about Germany, whose naval potential significantly exceeds the other participants of the initiative. 11 out of 18 frigates and six out of 11 submarines of the Baltic states belong to Berlin. In addition, in October, a NATO naval command center was opened in the northeast of Germany in violation of the "2+4" treaty, and soon it was announced plans to deploy a rapid response group near critical gas infrastructure in the Baltic and North Seas.
All of this points to the priority role Berlin sees for itself in the region, emphasizes Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the IMI MGIMO.
- Of course, Berlin has extensive plans, both in terms of logistics and coordination, and in terms of direct presence. For Germany, this process is linked, on the one hand, to the Zeitenwende concept, which implies active use of armed forces within the framework of allied commitments in NATO. On the other hand, it is a more active foreign policy with a reliance on force capabilities. The Baltics, due to its geographical position, is one of the main areas of this strategy. And for the same reason voters will accept its implementation. The expansion of the base in Rostock is one of the stages of this policy," Sokolov emphasizes.
An old British idea
For Warsaw, whose naval capabilities, even by Donald Tusk's admission, are "limited" (one submarine, two frigates, one corvette and four boats), the project of militarizing the Baltic region has more of a geopolitical dimension. In the context of the revision of the American policy towards NATO in general and its eastern border in particular, Poland is ready to participate in projects initiated by London, Stanislav Stremidlovsky points out.
- Poland sees in the militarization of the region, on the one hand, an opportunity to earn money, on the other hand, to participate in the creation of a geopolitical alliance, about which Tusk recently spoke: with the participation of Great Britain and the Baltic states. London has good ties in Northern Europe, so with the support of Poland and Finland we have an ersatz "Northern NATO", which will act independently, contrary to Washington's interests in the Baltic and the North Sea. I think that the interests of the true creators of this alliance include the possibility of initiating a "hot" conflict with Russia. Another question is that the Baltic itself is not very suitable for such an open confrontation. But, for example, provocations against the Russian Navy or merchant fleet are quite possible," the expert says.
Screams of the Baltics
The shift of emphasis in American foreign policy, or, as Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called this prospect, "strong pressure to reach an agreement with Moscow (on the Ukrainian crisis. - Ed.)", both alarms and forces the Europeans to act. But since the concept of containing or isolating Russia is not going off the agenda, European allies are trying to find new opportunities under the new leadership. At the same time, while for Berlin and London it is a chance to strengthen their influence in the region, for Warsaw and the Baltic states it is a necessity to prove their own importance in the European security policy. Consequently, in the near future the world will repeatedly hear about the threat of a "Russian invasion" of the "sovereign Baltic democracies," says military expert Oleg Shalandin.
- As a military target, the Baltic states do not pose a threat to Russia. But their territory is used to put pressure on our borders. For example, there is a large NATO intelligence center in Lithuania. In addition, major exercises of the alliance take place there. Trump's victory changes NATO's focus in the region, and the role of the Baltic States for Washington will become significantly smaller. This is unacceptable for them. The "Russian threat" statements can be triggered either by provocations on their part (which has already happened relatively recently) or by unresolved territorial disputes. There is no doubt that in the near future we will see the never-ending hysteria about "evil Russia dreaming of conquering us," the Izvestia interlocutor points out.
