Analyst assessed the impact of a possible duty hike on US inflation
If the U.S. duties on the whole range of goods do increase by an average of 10-15%, it may give a one-time additional inflationary impulse of 1-1.5% per year. Yuri Ichkitidze, an analyst at FreedomFinance Global, told Izvestia on January 15.
Earlier in the day, Bloomberg reported that the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump heralds the start of a new era of instability in global trade, prompting governments around the world to prepare in advance to introduce tariff hikes even before his return to the White House.
"Information about a possible increase in import duties in the U.S. is still vague. It looks more like throw-ins to prepare public opinion," the expert said.
According to him, there is a gradual increase in duties by 2-5% per month in order to strengthen the negotiating position of the US.
"So far, we can expect that this increase in tariffs will remain almost imperceptible for the U.S. economy. If an average 10-15% increase in duties does occur across the entire spectrum of goods, it may give a one-time additional inflationary impulse of 1-1.5% per year. There may also be a negative impulse on real GDP - by various estimates 0.2%-0.5% per year," Ichkitidze said.
According to the specialist, the gradual increase in tariffs will be the reason for negotiations and responses for partner countries.
"Our expectations are related to the fact that on key positions of imports for the U.S. in the field of equipment, materials and electronics, the final increase in import duties will be minimal," the expert summarized.
Earlier, on January 14, the head of the analytical department for global markets of IC Fontvielle Arthur Meinhard in a conversation with "Izvestia" predicted the strengthening of the dollar due to Trump's policy. According to him, in January 2025, the dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of key currencies, reached 109 points - the maximum value since the fall of 2022. Such strengthening of the US national currency is not an accident, but a direct consequence of the election rhetoric of the future US president.
