Following the Syrian mold: Egypt is threatened with regime collapse
Since the change of power in Syria, the balance of power in the Middle East has changed dramatically. It also casts a shadow on stability in North Africa, particularly in Egypt. Egyptian-born fighters also fought in the Syrian group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) (recognized as a terrorist group in Russia and banned). They subsequently announced the creation of their own movement. Their goal is to seize the capital of Egypt - Cairo and overthrow the country's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
In the footsteps of Syria
Arab publications drew attention to the activities of a former member of the group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" Ahmed al-Mansour. He had previously fled to Syria and now, while in Damascus, reported the creation of the paramilitary platform "January 25 Movement."
On this day in 2011, the Arab Spring began in Egypt with the outbreak of anti-government protests that later led to the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. Mohamed Morsi, a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood (recognized as a terrorist organization in Russia and banned), came to power.
Syria, Damascus
In recent days, al-Mansour has become active on social media, regularly making video messages to the Egyptian people. He fiercely criticizes the policies of the country's current president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, insinuating that he may repeat the fate of deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and talking about the need for "initiative in reviving the revolution."
Al-Mansour claims that Egyptian authorities are alarmed by developments in Syria and the army is "put on high alert."
It is possible that his determination to challenge the current Egyptian authorities was influenced by how quickly the HTS gained power in Damascus. Egyptian Interior Minister Mahmoud Tawfik reportedly called an emergency meeting against the backdrop of what is happening in Syria, and tightened entry restrictions for Syrians. Now they are required to obtain a special admission.
It also became known that the country's authorities began to compile lists of Egyptians who left the state over the past 10 years and joined the ranks of radical groups in Syria. In addition, Egypt detained Syrians who celebrated the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad last December too exuberantly.
Secular country
According to the constitution in force since 2014, Egypt is an Islamic country, with Islam as the basis of its statehood. At the same time, Egypt is a rather strongly divided state, ruled by a secular majority throughout virtually all of its republican history.
Egypt, Cairo
The founder of Egypt's republican state, Gamal Abdel Nasser, was from the military movement of free officers. The country's next leader also came from the military. It is absolutely normal for Egypt to have representatives of the military wing in power, relying on the power bloc. In fact, the military is the fourth type of power in the state.
In Egypt, which is quite usual for the East, heads of state hold their posts for quite a long time. The current president has already been in power for 11 years.
Danila Krylov, a researcher of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department of the Institute of International Scientific Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, candidate of political sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Abdel Fattah al-Sisi knows how to properly handle the security apparatus.
- But socio-economic problems are a serious issue, which has been exacerbated by the potential threat of famine amid the SWO and the reduction of grain supplies to Egypt. Egypt is a country of tortillas, it is the staple food of the poor," the political analyst explained.
He added that half of the country's population is secular, while the other half is religious. The country's economy is not designed for Islamic norms and rules. It is purely market-oriented and Western-centric - since the time of Anwar Sadat and during the reign of Hosni Mubarak, Egyptians have been supported by the Americans.
Egypt, Cairo
According to him, with the victory of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in the 2014 elections, the secular government won.
- Its representatives are now still trying to restore the economy at least to the level that was under Hosni Mubarak. The important point is that the country has a strong army, and in principle the only option to shake Egypt is to do it from within, through social protests," said the expert.
He added that Egypt is surrounded by countries that have been very turbulent lately. In the west, in Libya, there are many terrorists. In the south, Sudan, where there is a civil war, and in the east, the Gaza Strip. Under such conditions, it is not surprising to introduce increased security measures, the analyst believes.
The Orientalist believes that the Egyptian regime will not fall as quickly as the Syrian regime.
Beit Lahiya, northern Gaza Strip
- Egypt is still one of the six strong states in the region, with which Saudi ambitions in the region are closely connected, for example, with large sums of money invested there. Together with Qatar, it is a diplomatic platform for negotiations on many issues," Krylov explained.
Plus, Egypt is a member state of the African Union and the Arab League. The U.S. is also disadvantaged by regime change.
- Let's see what Trump's policy towards Egypt will be. But in principle, there is a lot of American money in Egypt, as well as Saudi money. The Saudis will not allow to simply shake up the state on which many political ideas and theses are based," the analyst summarized.
There are always dissatisfied people
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gates", noted in a conversation with Izvestia that, given the events of the Arab Spring and the fall of Hosni Mubarak's regime, it is impossible to rule out the same scenario in Egypt as in Syria.
- The only question is whether external players will be interested in the fall of the leadership in Cairo. With adequate resources, it will not be a problem for them to organize Arab Spring 2.0 in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Russia and Egypt, has a good base there," the political scientist explained.
According to him, this movement has the widest support, especially among the rural population and the poorest strata. However, hehe noted that the difference between Egypt and Syria is that Syria has been fighting for many years.
- And in Egypt stability is maintained, so in this case it is not quite correct to compare the situation in these countries. Nevertheless, there is fertile ground. Someone is always dissatisfied with something," the expert concluded.
Prevent outside interference
Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department of the Institute of Scientific Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that discontent and protest moods are noted in Egyptian social networks, but not on the scale that was on the eve of the Arab Spring. This is due to difficulties in external financial revenues, as well as the decline of some small and medium-sized businesses, rising food prices, and so on.
All this causes discontent of the street, but so far Abdel Fattah al-Sisi manages to keep the situation under control, preventing serious interference from the outside, including from his longtime opponents in the face of the Muslim Brotherhood, explained the Arabist.
According to the expert, they are actively trying to fuel protest moods in Egypt, but it is extremely problematic for the Muslim Brotherhood to participate in them directly. They act mainly from abroad, being in Turkey and Qatar.
- The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the rise of Islamists to power in Syria challenges Egypt's security as a whole. Quite strict restrictive measures have already been imposed on entry for Syrian citizens, both those who are married to Egyptian citizens or nationals and those who have residence permits in Western countries, such as the United States, EU states or Canada," the political analyst emphasized.
He believes that so far the situation is under control, but much depends on Egypt's position in the international arena.
- After the counter-coup led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, when the Islamists were overthrown, in fact, its foreign policy was an attempt to balance between regional heavyweights and major players in the international arena," the specialist explained.
In particular, Egypt managed to get closer to Saudi Arabia, which invests in many of the country's projects. In addition, the tough diplomatic differences in relations with Turkey were overcome not so long ago.
- After the fall of the regime in Syria, the burden on special services and internal security services with filtering of opposition figures coming from Syria and returning to the country from Europe increases, because the disgruntled street may again have coordinators, who will not necessarily be directly connected with the Muslim Brotherhood," the orientalist believes.
In his opinion, they may also be involved in other Islamist movements, organizations, formations or groups.
- In this regard, it is important for Egypt, on the one hand, to maintain this balance in foreign policy, without entering into direct confrontation, and on the other hand, it will be necessary to pursue a very balanced, but at the same time tough domestic policy in order to prevent the social and economic demands of the street from turning into political ones," the analyst concluded.
