Demand for new buildings in "old" Moscow decreased by 31% in 2024

In 2024 on the primary market of the mass segment of "old" Moscow 28 582 share participation agreements (SPA) were registered, which is 31% less than in 2023. This is the minimum level of demand for new buildings for five years, follows from the data of the company "Metrium", with which "Izvestia" got acquainted on January 15.

The lowest demand was observed in the III quarter (5643 CDUs), in the IV quarter the figure increased by 37.9% and amounted to 7780 CDUs, which is 34.5% less than in the IV quarter of 2023.

"In 2024, the real estate market is facing a prolonged key rate hike for the first time. While in the retrospective of previous years the key rate increased for a relatively short period of time, throughout the second half of 2024 the rate was at high levels, reaching a record 21% by the end of the year. In connection with this, as well as due to the winding down of preferential mortgages in 2024 in new buildings in the mass segment, which are particularly dependent on housing loans, there was a minimum level of demand for five years - 28,582 CDA (-31% for the year)", - explained Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium.

The company added that the reduction in the level of demand was also affected by a decrease in the rate of launching new projects on the market. In 2024, nine new projects were launched, while in 2023 there were 15 launches. In addition, the growing popularity of business class among developers, who have been bringing more and more projects in this segment to the market, had an impact. Last year, the business class outpaced the mass segment in terms of supply.

However, towards the end of the year there was a recovery in demand by months, while the share of mortgages was decreasing. Discounts from developers and developed installment programs contributed to this.

Analysts noted that at the end of 2024 in the real estate market of the mass segment of Moscow there were 97 projects with apartments and apartments in realization. The total volume of supply at the end of the period amounted to 20,339 lots, of which 18.6 thousand - apartments and 1.7 thousand - apartments. The share of transactions with mortgage for the year decreased by 25 percentage points and amounted to 59%.

According to experts' calculations, the weighted average price of 1 sq. m. of apartments and apartments at the end of December last year amounted to 324,470 rubles. At the same time, the weighted average price of 1 sq. m. in apartments reached 333,010 rubles, in apartments - 260,830 rubles.

At the end of December 2024 Syrtsov told Izvestia that developers of mass and business segment projects in 2025 may continue to reduce prices by setting a discount on a wide pool of real estate lots. But, in his opinion, there will be no sharp price reduction, as developers need to fulfill their financial obligations to banks and maintain at least a small margin.