Short-circuited: Russians may lose affordable electric cars and hybrids
Since the beginning of the year, Russia has sharply increased the utilization fee rates for electric cars and successive hybrids. This will lead to an increase in prices for such models, and it will be most noticeable for affordable versions of "green" cars, experts say. The decision will contribute to an increase in the share of gray imports and a decrease in official sales, experts believe. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Energy growth
For the first time in several years sharply increased rates of utilization fee on electric cars and serial hybrids. This is provided by the relevant paragraph of the Russian government decree of September 13, 2024, which entered into force on January 1, 2025. While the rates for models with internal combustion engine (ICE) were increased both in October last year and in January this year, the indexation of the rates for "green" cars took place only now.
If before for "electric cars" and hybrids the coefficient, on the basis of which the amount of scrappage duty is determined, was 1.63 (for models up to three years old) and 6.1 (for models older than three years), now they are 33.37 and 58.7 respectively. Given the prime rate of Br20 thousand in money equivalent, it amounts to Br667.4 thousand and Br1.174 million, respectively. Previously, the amount of utilization fee on such cars was Br32.6 thousand and Br122 thousand. Thus, from January 1, 2025, it has increased more than 20 times.
At the same time, at the end of last year, the share of electric cars in sales, according to the analytical agency "Avtostat", amounted to 1%, and hybrids (both parallel and sequential) - 4%. And if the sales of electric cars for 2024 increased by 26%, hybrids - almost twice.
A blow to affordable models
New sizes of the utilization fee for electric cars and hybrids will inevitably affect their price, especially for affordable models, experts interviewed by Izvestia note.
- Obviously, the very 667.4 thousand rubles will be included in the retail price of the car. And if for a premium electric car or hybrid costing 10-12 million rubles, such an increase will be relatively unnoticeable against the background of the overall high cost of the car, then for models that cost 2.5-4 million rubles, such an increase will be quite significant," Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, told Izvestia.
According to him, even relatively affordable "green" cars were noticeably more expensive against the background of competitors with traditional internal combustion engines. Now, when they will additionally add at least 667 thousand rubles, this difference will be more noticeable. That will eventually have a negative impact on demand, the expert believes.
The increase of utilization fee rates for electric cars and hybrids from January 1, 2025 will have a significant impact on the market of "green" cars in Russia, says Irina Frank, Managing Director of Frank Auto. The increase in prices for such cars may drive away buyers, especially those who consider buying an electric car or hybrid as an option to save money, she notes.
- Higher prices will negatively impact demand. Consumers may refuse to buy or switch to more affordable conventional cars, which will reduce the already small share of electric cars in the Russian market. However, the segment of premium "electric cars" is unlikely to suffer much, as consumers with high incomes are always less sensitive to price increases," she told Izvestia.
Director of Avilon Electro Sergey Meliukh notes that the growth of rates for electric cars and hybrids will not greatly affect this segment as a whole and the share of electric cars and hybrids will grow in any case. Prices will increase, but, taking into account all the advantages of these cars, the interest of customers will increase, he believes.
- The increase in the rate of utilization tax will have a stronger impact on mass models. However, despite the annual inflationary rise in car prices and the increase in customs and utilization fees, demand also depends on many other factors. The overall Russian market is likely to shrink, but the share of hybrids and electric cars in it will increase due to the development of new technologies and the emergence of new models," Sergey Melyukh believes.
Working "gray"
Ruslan Tarasov, editor-in-chief of the Russian electric car portal EV-Start, does not foresee a significant decrease in interest in electric cars and hybrid models. However, he believes that the increase in the rates of duty on such models will make the segment of this market more "gray".
- Official importers will not be able to import cars using gray and black schemes, while unofficial sellers will surely find ways and schemes to circumvent the increased rates. For example, they will import cars to order for a certain client. Since in this case the car is legally imported by a physical person, it is subject to the previous preferential rates of utilization tax. Thus, instead of a civilized market of electric cars and hybrids, we, unfortunately, come to the realities of the late 90s - early 2000s," he told Izvestia.
Support domestic
According to Avtostat, last year, of all new electric cars sold in our country, only 18% were models assembled in Russia, the remaining 82% were imports. At the same time, according to the unified plan to achieve the national development goals of the Russian Federation by 2030, the number of electric cars and series hybrids produced in Russia should increase to 54 thousand units.
Igor Morzharetto, a partner of the Avtostat analytical agency, believes that increasing the scrappage duty on these models is one of the ways to protect domestic manufacturers. However, at such volumes their production will be unprofitable, he notes.
- It is economically feasible to produce a car even by the method of large-unit assembly, if we are talking about 15-20 thousand cars per year. It will be possible to reach the planned figures by 2030 if we talk about two, maximum three models to be produced in our country," he said.
A high level of localization is necessary for these electric cars and hybrids to be considered Russian, and their manufacturers to have privileges on payment of the duty, Maxim Kadakov reminds. In addition to welding and body painting, the use of other domestic components - batteries and electric motors - is also required, he notes.
Russian electric cars will not become more expensive?
Domestic manufacturers of "green" models told Izvestia that despite the increase in the utilization fee, they will try to keep prices for their products.
- At the moment, we are not planning to raise prices for electric cars and hybrids produced in the Lipetsk region because of the change in the utilization fee rate. In order to support automobile companies, the Russian government has provided for a deferral of payment of this fee until mid-December 2025, which, among other things, allows us not to raise prices. Such a measure significantly reduces the credit burden, increasing the working capital of automakers until the utilization fee is paid at the end of the year," the Evolute press service told Izvestia.
The company said that work on the "Russification" of cars produced at the plant in the Lipetsk region continues. In particular, preparations are underway to launch welding and painting shops, and the process of localization of knowledge-intensive components, such as electric motors and traction batteries, is actively underway.
Timur Rakhmankulov, Sales Director of MAZ Moskvich, told Izvestia that the increase in the scrappage fee will certainly have its impact on pricing, as under the current rules the manufacturer first pays it to the budget, and only at the end of the year receives compensation according to the points earned.
- We approach the pricing process carefully, based on market realities, so we will act carefully. We will continue to promote ecological transport and transport on new energy sources, hence we will continue production of Moskvich 3e electric cars," he emphasized.
