Hunt from Medvedev: can Daniil compete for victory at the Australian Open again
The Australian Open has started in Melbourne. On the first day of the main draw, Mirra Andreeva defeated Maria Bouskova of the Czech Republic in one hour and 34 minutes (6:3, 6:3). Last year our young star reached the fourth round, losing to titleholder Barbora Krejcikova. This time Andreeva's task is even more difficult. In the fourth round she will probably have to play with the reigning Melbourne champion and world number one Aryna Sobolenko. As always, Daria Kasatkina (world No. 10), Diana Schneider (13) and Anna Kalinskaya (16) are the main hope. On the men's side, one of the top contenders for the title is three-time Australian Open finalist (2021, 2022, 2024) Daniil Medvedev. AI once again sees the 28-year-old Russian in the deciding match of the first "major" of the season.
Who is the favorite?
The end of last season was largely blurred due to the doping scandals involving Yannick Sinner and Igi Sventek. So the topic of banned drugs and the fairness of punishments/justifications of tennis stars is for the first time seriously competing with purely sporting arguments. On Friday, January 10, it was announced that WADA's appeal of Sinner's ludicrous sentence will be heard in mid-March. That means that, in good conscience, Yannick should have been suspended for more than a year. Instead, he is now the world number one and has a good chance to defend last year's title at the Australian Open. Although most experts are betting not on Cinner, but on Novak Djokovic's record 25th major title.
One of the most popular neural networks ChatGPT believes that Yannick will stop at the semi-final stage, where he will be stopped by Daniil Medvedev. Such an approach looks non-trivial, because in the final of last year's Australian Open, Yannick won a willful victory over Daniil. In fact, eight of the last nine matches between these two rivals have gone to the Italian. Medvedev is not at the peak of his career - he hasn't won a title in a year and a half, and the only encouraging news about him recently is the birth of the Russian's second child, a daughter Victoria. If the emotional boost from this event is enough for him to defeat Sinner and reach the final of the AO - then we can talk about a real miracle.
Of course, Daniel, at 28, is a player in the prime of his life, he has four Grand Slam finals under his belt (three of them in Australia, though all of them were lost), experience as a world number one and many other pluses. So, predicting the success of our athlete in Melbourne, the AI does not make any inordinate conclusions. Still, the risk is very high. There is a feeling that, for all his talents, Medvedev has recently lost his champion's mojo - he has learned to settle for little, switched to a pragmatic approach, and gets more pleasure from the process than from victories. Whether it is possible to jump over the head in such a state is a big question, especially given the disappointing results of last year.
As early as the third round, Daniil may face Australia's Alexey Popyrin, who improved a lot last season and defeated Medvedev at the Paris Masters. Overall, there are plenty of serious contenders in the top half of the net (although there are no such monsters as Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic or Alexander Zverev), so Medvedev still has to get to Sinner in the semifinals. Practice shows that a breakdown at the leader of Russian tennis can happen at any moment. But the Melbourne Park courts suit his style of play very well indeed, and this fact cannot cancel out even the unlucky balls that Daniil has been complaining about lately.
- Cinner and Alcaraz are the most uncomfortable opponents for Daniil right now," Olympic champion and former world number one in doubles Elena Vesnina told Izvestia. - If Medvedev plays like he did in the Australian Open final in the first two sets against Sinner, then of course he will have every chance. Then he showed how to play against Yannick, he just lacked the strength to bring the match to victory. In any case, there are chances for an overall victory, because Daniel is one of the leading tennis players. The most important thing for him is not to go into a deep defense, because it's just impossible to outrun guys like Cinner or Alcaraz, they will just tear you apart.
As for betting on Djokovic's new success, this ChatGPT decision seems questionable as well. The Serb sacrificed last season to win the Olympics, and it's not at all certain that the most titled tennis player in history will be able to make it to the current majors. In any case, the clownish behavior at Alexander Zverev's press conference and strange stories about poisoning in an Australian hotel in 2022 do not bode well for Nole's fans so far. Of course, Novak is a great champion and can produce a super game at any moment and in any condition. But to suggest that Djokovic is now stronger than the six opponents seeded above him in the Australian Open men's tournament is at least a stretch. Yes, Alcaraz is also in crisis and Zverev has never won a TBS, but it is these players, not the Serbian veteran, who seem to be the favorites at the bottom of the net.
Mirra's brisk start
As for the women's tournament, here AI upset the forecast with a second-round exit for Mirra Andreeva at the hands of Poland's Magda Linette. The Olympic vice-champion has already passed the first round, having confidently defeated Maria Bouzkova of the Czech Republic. The 14th seed acted very confidently and achieved a decisive advantage at the end of the first and at the beginning of the second sets. In fact, the main event of the match was its short-term stoppage due to the rain that started and the roof was closed. But that didn't derail the 17-year-old star's spirit. She finished the match in good spirits, and news of Mirra's success dominated the headlines in the first hours after the start of the tournament.
The young Russian realizes that she has a huge amount of pressure to deal with. After the semifinals of Roland Garros 2024, everyone expects Mirra to at least reach the fourth round. It will be very difficult for Andreeva to get through, as at this stage she faces a match against Aryna Sobolenko, who looks extremely powerful and is the main challenger for the title, no matter what ChatGPT writes (the AI is betting on Sventek, who can celebrate success on the Green Continent for the first time in her career). Of course, there's always the possibility of poisoning (as happened at Roland Garros 2024) or some other cataclysmic event. But it's still unclear who, all things being equal, could compete with Aryna, including Iga Swiatek.
Polka will now have to answer questions at every press conference about doping, about new ways of fighting jetlag and about clever lawyers. And all this against the backdrop of the fact that playing on fast courts is not Iga's strongest quality. Swiatek looked good at the recent United Cup, but she needs a lot of luck and a serious boost in form to have a chance of beating Sobolenko in the final, as AI predicts. Whether the Russian will qualify for the final, or at least the Melbourne semi-finals, is the big question.
So far, it seems that any of our girls getting into the second week of the singles tournament will be a great success. And victories here should rather be expected in doubles, where the super duo Mirra Andreeva/Diana Schneider will play again, as well as the very successful pair of Russian Irina Khromacheva and Anna Danilina from Kazakhstan.
