"The most popular small business soft loan program will remain in place"
Over the entire period of the National Project to support SMEs, one of the main programs of preferential lending to the sector - "1764" - has provided loans to businesses for almost Br5 trillion. In the next six-year cycle, the program will continue, but the volume of new loans will be reduced to Br100 billion annually. This was reported by Deputy Minister of Economic Development Tatyana Ilyushnikova in an interview with "Izvestia. According to her, the goal of the national project in terms of the number of employed in the sector has been exceeded - more than 29 million people are already working there. How the authorities will change their approach to supporting entrepreneurs and the self-employed - in an interview with Izvestia.
"The image of business in the 1990s and now are completely different things"
- This year the national project "Small and Medium Entrepreneurship and Support for Individual Entrepreneurial Initiative" is coming to an end. How do you assess its implementation in general?
- One of the achievements has been a change in the perception of the sector itself. Today society knows that entrepreneurs are not just looking to make money. They are a conscious business community that is involved in technology, charity, social responsibility and interaction with society. The image of business in the 1990s and now are completely different things.
The second important achievement is the creation of special institutions for the development and support of small business. They existed before, but over the last five or six years we have gathered all the disparate elements into a unified structure at both the federal and regional levels and ensured unified approaches to business support throughout the country.
Another thing is that thanks to the National Project on SME support approved by the President, the society started to learn what small business is, how the government interacts with it, what institutions and support tools are available. This is such a pillar of the economy of settlements, especially small ones, and many regions.
It was possible to achieve such results thanks to the comprehensive actions of the Russian government. They cover all spheres of SME activity: creation of favorable administrative conditions, tax preferences, regulation of control and supervisory activities, replacement of inspections with preventive visits, simplification of permitting procedures, development of preferential financial programs, creation of SME support institutions and infrastructure, and feedback mechanisms. Over the past six years, more than 5 million entrepreneurs have received support from the National Project "Small and Medium Entrepreneurship".
In particular, this is why they managed to survive and recover in difficult, crisis times - the pandemic and the introduction of Western sanctions against the Russian economy.
- Did you manage to achieve all the goals set in the National Project six years ago?
- We had the main task, as outlined in the presidential decree, to ensure growth in the number of people employed in the SME sector. This includes, first of all, employees of small and medium-sized companies, as well as self-employed and individual entrepreneurs (IE). This indicator has even been exceeded: the target was 25 million people, and now there are more than 29 million of them. Today the structure of employment looks as follows: more than 19 million employees, which is a record for six years, more than 4 million individual entrepreneurs and about 6 million active self-employed.
In turn, the structure of the sector is as follows: more than 6.5 million are SMEs, of which 2.2 million are legal entities and more than 4 million IEs. There are also more than 12 million self-employed registered.
In addition, the number of newly created SMEs is an important indicator that we always monitor, as it reflects entrepreneurs' faith in the future and stability. In 2024, their number exceeded 1.1 million - this mark is higher than in 2019.
Despite the fact that the National Project does not include an indicator of the total income of SMEs, we estimate its growth. It is clear that the figures are influenced by different factors - inflation, the general economic situation, but compared to 2019, the total income of SMEs increased by 75%. In addition, value added has increased by 45%.
- One of the constantly discussed indicators of SME sector development is its contribution to the country's GDP. According to the latest data, in 2022 it amounted to 20-21%, while in developed countries it is 50-60%. Is this much or little for the Russian economy? Is it really necessary to increase this indicator?
- This topic is really interesting for expert discussion, and the figure itself is quite stable. In 2019, we started with 20.7%, by 2022 the figure had risen to 21%, and by the end of 2023 we expect its further growth (the figure is calculated with a lag of more than a year. - "Izvestia"). If we clear the GDP from the oil and gas sector (which is a specific feature of the Russian economy), the contribution of SMEs on average reaches about 25%.
We see the main contribution of business to GDP in enterprises from industries that provide the highest added value and productivity. For example, these may be new markets such as tourism, high-tech companies in the IT sector, and manufacturing industries. Enterprises operating in these areas show higher "survival rate" and specific employment, they are actively investing in robotization and the use of artificial intelligence. Therefore, we identify these industries as priority sectors for the growth of the Russian economy and target support programs for them on the horizon of 2025-2030.
For the share of small business in GDP to increase, the segment must grow faster than the economy. In simple words, it is the sector's productivity. We have a rather ambitious target - by 2030, SMEs should grow faster than GDP by 20%, i.e. faster than the economy on average.
- Is the target for the share of SMEs in GDP envisaged for the next few years? Do you set it as a KPI for yourself?
- The share of SMEs in GDP is calculated analytically. We assess their contribution by a combination of factors - the dynamics of the number of people in the sector as a whole, the income of entrepreneurs, and the impact of various state support programs.
"Thanks to the preferential loan program "1764", loans for almost 4.7 trillion were granted over six years"
- What actions of the ministry made it possible to achieve the results of this six-year program?
- This is a great teamwork of the government, agencies, regions and entrepreneurs themselves. In this case, the Ministry of Economic Development is the platform where all the tools are gathered and coordinated.
The most demanded measures are financial instruments, in 2020-2022 - anti-crisis programs. Thanks to the preferential credit program "1764", loans for almost 4.7 trillion rubles were provided over six years. This tool allowed to provide horizontal support, unlike departmental programs, which are narrowly sectoral in nature.
There is also a mechanism of "umbrella" guarantees - when an SME does not have enough property for collateral during lending, the state assumes part of the risk and acts as a de facto guarantor.
In addition, favorable state microloans and grants provided support to entrepreneurs. If a person does not believe in the idea of his project, is not ready to take risks or invest at least a little money in it, what kind of outside investment can we talk about? So, we have reconfigured the grant instruments and introduced a mandatory share of co-financing.
- How is entrepreneurship developing in Russia's new regions? What has been achieved since September 2022?
- We already have experience in integrating individual regions, using Crimea and Sevastopol as an example. However, the practice with the DNR, LNR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions is different. For this purpose, we attracted neighboring subjects - the Rostov region, Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol - as "chief mentors" to transfer experience. It was also necessary to form appropriate legislation. The ultimate goal in the issue of reunited regions is to come to all-Russian standards in the field of SME development.
Another task is to create all the basic support institutions at the regional level. We are talking about "My Business" centers, state microfinance organizations, regional guarantee organizations, leasing companies. Last year we created them and formed the capital, but here we need to understand the specifics: the level of capitalization must be brought to the Russian average. And even increase it, since the risks of, for example, guarantee organizations in these regions are much higher.
"Preferential loans will be issued less, but they will become more targeted"
- One of the main challenges for the development of the sector is the increase in the key rate and the increase in the cost of loans. Now business is slowing down investment activity because of this. In addition, the budget includes a reduction in the allocated funding for the "1764" program. Will the approach to it change in any way? Will it be preserved in the future?
- Funding for the program is divided into two parts. First, we will continue to service our obligations under the loans issued until 2025. Their total amount is about 800 billion rubles. There may be some adjustments, but the favorable terms will be preserved.
The second part of financing under the "1764" program envisages annual volumes of new loans in the amount of 100 billion rubles. This is less than now - in the current national project the amount is about 500 billion rubles of loans annually.
Preferential loans will be issued less, but they will become more targeted - we will concentrate support where it is really necessary for the formation of new markets, industries, the introduction of elements of robotization, the development of high-tech companies, creative economy. Thus, we are focusing on those industries in which we want SMEs to grow faster or which are just emerging.
In other words, it turns out that we go with our programs either where banks do not want to go or where new points of growth are really forming. Therefore, the most popular program of preferential lending "1764" will remain in place. It is important that it will be implemented in partnership with the Central Bank. Also, the instrument of preferential funding for banks will be added to the state subsidies. In general, this will increase the sustainability of the program.
- That is, loans will be issued according to certain OKVEDs?
- OKVED specified in the charter does not always guarantee that the entrepreneur is engaged in this particular activity. This session the law was adopted, according to which gradually after the transition period OKVED codes for business, including the main one, will be determined on the basis of revenue from the actual activities carried out at the end of the year.
- Next year, the national project to support SMEs will be transformed. It will be part of the larger national project "Efficient and Competitive Economy". Will there be any significant changes in the support of the sector from 2025?
- In general, all the basic tools will remain in the new federal project. These are bank loans, preferential microloans of state microfinance organizations, guarantees, sureties, preferential leasing, accelerator programs for different categories, services of "My Business" centers. But all this will be reconfigured from the point of view of targeting the supply economy and sectors with high labor productivity.
The program for the creation of business, industrial and industrial parks, including those focused on creative industries, will remain in place. In other words, the program will be adjusted to those growing sectors of the supply economy, where the greatest added value of the modern economy is created.
In addition, the role of Russian regions will grow - they themselves form their own programs of socio-economic development. Some focus on industrial production, some on tourism, some on creative industries, some on agriculture. They, in turn, try not to compete with federal business support tools, but to supplement them and complete them based on their priorities.
"Modern entrepreneurs tend to work not in the "gray", but in the legal field"
- From 2025, as part of the fine-tuning of the tax system, the taxation of SMEs will change - the income threshold for simplified taxation will be raised, but VAT will be introduced from 60 million of turnover. Isn't there a fear that now business will only start to split more actively?
- At such thresholds it becomes economically unprofitable to split! Moreover, modern entrepreneurs tend to work not in the "gray", but in the legal field. The threshold of 60 million is economically justified, as almost 97% of small and microbusinesses are below this level, and medium-sized companies will remain value added tax (VAT) payers. In addition, there will be a choice - to keep full-fledged VAT accounting or to pay VAT under a simplified scheme.
- It has been a long time since there was such a large-scale change in the tax system. How do you generally assess the impact of the tax fine-tuning on the SME sector?
- It is too early to say what the assessment is. According to absolute figures, the sector is growing and developing. We need to wait six months to a year to see how the new parameters will affect it. It is also important to realize that with a high key rate, investment activity also comes to a standstill, which is also an important factor, but it has nothing to do with changes in the tax system.
"Self-employment is a legal 'tax sandbox'"
- We have already discussed that the number of self-employed in Russia has recently increased - there are already more than 12 million of them. Six years have already passed since the launch of the experiment, and it will last until 2028. What results can be summarized now and what changes in the mechanism are tentatively emerging?
- It is too early to summarize the results, as the term of the experiment is 10 years. The institute of self-employment itself should be considered in the context of the tasks and needs of the economy. At the time of its launch, it was necessary to legalize a certain category of people who received income and were not ready to register as self-employed. This was accomplished.
Self-employment is a legal "tax sandbox" where you can try your hand at entrepreneurship without consequences.
On the other hand, you need to understand the structure of the self-employed, where a fairly large proportion of people who receive passive income and have a main place of work. Their employer at the main place of work fulfills all obligations to pay insurance premiums and other tax contributions. These are not the self-employed who are entrepreneurs in pure form.
The next big group is those who work through platforms: couriers, cab drivers. They need to be looked at in the context of regulating the activities of platforms. The third group is people who have registered, but do not have any economic activity or it is not active yet.
- Are there many such economically inactive self-employed?
- We consider those self-employed who have not made a single transaction in a year to be inactive. This figure varies depending on the region and the year - on average there are about 30% of them.
"So far, we see no preconditions for raising the income threshold for the self-employed"
-Do you suppose that it will be necessary to raise the income threshold for self-employment, to limit the possibility of being self-employed in certain areas?
- The income threshold for the self-employed is 2.4 million, if it is divided by 12 months, it is Br200 thousand per month. Taking into account weekends and holidays, this amount is higher than the average Russian salary - according to the data for September, it amounted to Br84.3 thousand. That is, we see no prerequisites for raising the income threshold for the self-employed. Before introducing restrictions, it is necessary to define the goal.
If we want a part of the self-employed to move into labor relations, we need to understand what part and in what sectors. We need to look at where there is the greatest need for personnel. But we see no need to introduce strict bans, as they are usually perceived negatively, and they only want to violate them even more.
Now the self-employed may not specify the sphere of their activity at all. Therefore, we can start by introducing this rule.
- What expectations do you have, what trends do you expect in the development of the SME sector?
There are several trends that are relevant now. The first is the localization trend. According to our research, more than 15 thousand companies use regional umbrella brands (a strategy when a company creates a series of related products or services under a common name and image. - Izvestia) in their development. Companies from tourism, high-tech, creative industries work within umbrella brands, and the strength of a regional trademark contributes to their growth.
The second trend is the development of creative economy. Today, about 700,000 companies operate in this sphere, and 4.6 million people are employed in the sector. The gross value added of the sector amounts to almost RUB 5.5 trillion. In addition, the products are well exported - the indicator has grown by 9% in 2024. The sector is more resistant to external economic constraints: creative industries are immune to pandemics, sanctions and natural disasters.
The third trend is that youth, women's, and social entrepreneurship will continue to grow. More and more people of "silver" age are interested in business.
And the fourth trend is a well-built SME support infrastructure that will be able to support both individual areas, such as creative industries, and enterprises in general, even if they are not included in the perimeter of the new federal project.
