Bought up for growth: bitcoin could hit an all-time record in the coming months
In an optimistic scenario, the price of bitcoin may reach $115-120 thousand as early as in the first quarter of this year - despite the fact that in early January, the quotations fell significantly, predict experts interviewed by Izvestia. In the near future, the price of the main cryptocurrency will react to inflation data in the United States, the Fed rate and any statements on the regulation of the digital industry. One of the reasons for the fall in the value of the coin in recent days - just the promises of a slower decline in the key in the United States. However, the imminent inauguration of Trump may change the balance - the rate will be influenced by whether the American leader will fulfill his promises, in particular on the creation of a reserve in bitcoins.
Bitcoin price in the first months of 2025
In recent days, bitcoin quotes have been falling rapidly. After updating the historical maximum in the second half of December, when the rate of the main cryptocurrency reached $108.2 thousand, the value of the coin expectedly corrected. But since January 7, it has fallen by $11.5 thousand in a few days, to $91.2 thousand, which was used by many investors. Experts believe that in an optimistic scenario bitcoin could reach $120 thousand in the first quarter of 2025.
At the end of last year, cryptocurrencies began to steadily rise in price on two basic factors. The first is the beginning of the US Federal Reserve rate reduction cycle, and the second and most important is the coming to power of Donald Trump, who promised to solve all the problems with the regulation of crypto in the United States, said Fedor Ivanov, director of analytics at Shard.
Now the situation has changed, because Trump's election victory has already been recouped by the market. At the same time, in early January, the leadership of the Fed said it would move to a slower rate cut than originally expected, the expert explained. There was also a new factor - theMinistry of Justice agreed to sell bitcoins on the balance sheet of the United States for $6 billion. Because of this, the cost fell sharply.
By January 10, the price of the main cryptocurrency slightly strengthened - to $ 93.7 thousand . If it holds and does not fall below $ 90 thousand before Trump takes office (January 20), it could be a signal of new growth, believes BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. According to him, now the key resistance level is the $97.5 thousand mark.
In the near future, the cost of bitcoin will be influenced by the macroeconomic situation, especially the monetary policy of central banks and the inflation rate, as well as the regulatory environment in major economies, said Kava Hoxha, a senior lecturer at the Department of Economic Theory of Plekhanov Russian Economic University.
Theexchange rate could indeed go down in case of bad inflation data in the United States or negative statements by U.S. financial authorities, noted Fedor Ivanov of Shard. Also, the price will be driven down by any sales of bitcoin from US government wallets. At the same time, we can expect an increase in the price of the coin due to the departure of Gary Gensler from the post of Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as he was an opponent of crypto, the expert noted.
In general, now the entire crypto industry has quieted down in anticipation of Donald Trump's coming to power and his further actions, said Lazar Badalov, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics of PFUR. In his opinion, perhaps at first after the inauguration of the new U.S. president there will be another wave of growth, because people loyal to the industry will finally come to regulate the cryptocurrency market.
- However, there is another factor - it is the state bitcoin reserve in the US. Trump is expected to take concrete steps on this issue almost immediately after his inauguration. If there are none, it will start to put pressure on the price. And the monetary authorities have already spoken out on this issue - now the Fed can't buy bitcoins on the basis of the law," Fedor Ivanov explained.
If in the near future it becomes clear that the law will not change, the price will sag, the expert expects. However, it is unlikely that much, because already at the level of $ 90 thousand investors buy the coin.
Legalization and active use of bitcoins is a trend not only in the United States, but also in other countries. A positive for the entire global cryptocurrency market is, oddly enough, the law on mining adopted in Russia, which came into effect on November 1, Izvestia wrote. Crypto mined in the Russian Federation is already used in foreign economic activity and supports the importance of this tool.
When to wait for new bitcoin records
Investors should closely follow the news and macroeconomic data, because the price of bitcoin will depend on the development of the situation in traditional financial markets and the actions of regulators, emphasized Daniel Tyun, senior analyst of the closed venture club "Digital Finance". He specified: on January 15, the consumer price index will be published, which will give the market an idea of the inflation rate. And the next Fed meeting on the key rate will be held on January 29.
In an optimistic scenario bitcoin may reach $120 thousand in the first quarter of 2025, the expert estimated. And in the first half of the year in the case of positive changes in regulation - even $150 thousand.
Bitcoin has already really become a full-fledged tool for an investment portfolio - activists invest in it not only in Western countries, but also in Russia. Most likely, cryptocurrency will become an integral part of the global financial system in the next few years, says Alexei Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group.
In his opinion, Trump's rise to power will contribute to this. The inauguration of the new US President and legislative changes in terms of the adoption of cryptocurrencies will push the price up, the expert believes. According to his assessment, this year the bitcoin rate will vary between $85-150 thousand.
Most likely, bitcoin will grow, said leading analyst of AMarkets Igor Rastorguev. Nevertheless, short-term corrections are possible due to profit taking and regulatory threats. In the first quarter, the price of the main cryptocurrency will be in the range of $70-105 thousand, the expert estimated. However, it may reach $115 thousand.
American major players in the investment market MicroStrategy and BlackRock continue to buy bitcoin on the fall, reducing its supply in the market, said Vladislav Antonov of BitRiver. He expects the key bitcoin exchange rate target to be at $160k by around October-November.
In the long term, by the end of 2025, the price of the main cryptocurrency may even reach $200 thousand, estimated Daniel Tyun from Digital Finance. This is due to the expected growth of institutional demand from investment companies and improvement of the regulatory environment.
