Five-year record: Russian car market has reached the pre-pandemic level
At the end of last year, the market of new passenger cars renewed its five-year record and reached the pre-pandemic level of sales. The factors that, according to forecasts, were supposed to reduce buyers' interest in cars, on the contrary, only spurred demand, experts say. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
New height
Last year, 1,571,272 new cars were sold in Russia, which is 48.4% more than in 2023, according to the analytical agency Avtostat, based on the number of issued FTEs. This is the highest figure for the last five years. Thus, the Russian car market came close to the pre-pandemic indicators: 1.59 million new cars were sold in our country in 2019.
According to Sergei Tselikov, CEO of Avtostat, 42% of sales were Russian cars (including Chinese models assembled in Russia). Almost 70% of them are equipped with automatic transmission (classic "automatics", as well as "robots" and variators). In the metropolitan region (Moscow and the Moscow region) last year, every fifth new car was purchased, he noted. Electric cars took 1% of the market, hybrids - 4%. At the same time, of the 1.57 million cars sold, about a third (32%) are models released in 2023, said Sergei Tselikov.
The leaders have been determined
Lada retained the leadership - 436.2 thousand cars sold. Models produced in Togliatti and Izhevsk occupy 29% of the market, although a year earlier this figure exceeded 30%. The second line is occupied by Haval, which is the most popular foreign brand in our country with the result of 190.6 thousand cars. "Bronze" is Chery, which ended last year with an indicator of 157 thousand cars sold. Geely (149.1 thousand), Changan (106.1 thousand), Omoda (49.5 thousand), Exeed (40.9 thousand units) and Jetour (35.1 thousand units) are next. Belarusian Belgee (34.6 th. copies) and Chinese Tank (28.5 th. copies) also broke into the top-10.
In the "personal score" for the third year in a row, the leader is Lada Granta, which sold 201.5 thousand units. It is followed by its "big sister" - Lada Vesta (123.2 thousand cars), which rose by two positions during the year. And last year's "silver medalist" Haval Jolion with the result of 83.8 thousand cars has now received the "bronze". The fourth and fifth places were taken by Chery Tiggo 7 Pro Max (64.8 thousand) and Tiggo 4 Pro (52.7 thousand). Next are Lada Niva Travel (50.2 thousand), Geely Monjaro (47.9 thousand), Lada Niva Legend (46.8 thousand). The Omoda C5 and Haval M6 models, which sold out 38.4 thousand and 38 thousand cars respectively, round out the top ten most popular models.
Multidirectional factors
Last year, the Russian car market was in a paradoxical and unusual situation, said Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Za Rulem". According to him, external factors, which, according to forecasts, should have led to a decrease in demand for new cars, on the contrary, further fueled the interest of potential buyers.
- According to all forecasts, the fall indexation of the utilization fee, as well as the repeated increase of the key rate in the second half of the year should have had a negative impact on the sales of new cars. But it turned out to be the opposite: these factors only spurred the purchase of a car. Since mid-September last year, most buyers have been guided by the rule "you have to buy today, otherwise tomorrow will be even more expensive," he told Izvestia.
Maxim Kadakov believes that the drivers of sales growth and the market reaching record highs were also significant injections of funds into the economy by the government, which resulted in additional funds for a certain part of the population, as well as pent-up demand after a significant drop in sales in previous years. At the same time, the current figure of 1.57 million cars sold is not the ceiling for the market, he believes.
- It is obvious that the demand for new cars has not been fully satisfied. Potentially, the market has opportunities for growth and reaching 2-2.2 million cars sold. But only theoretically, - Maxim Kadakov specified.
In reality, it will be extremely difficult to achieve even last year's figures this year, he believes. The inevitable price rise during the year, which will be caused by the indexation of the utilization fee, will have an impact, the expert believes.
Igor Morzharetto, partner of the analytical agency "Avtostat", also adheres to the same point of view. He calls the past year as a whole successful, but warns that the main difficulties for the market are still ahead.
- In spite of the fact that dealers still have about 300 thousand cars in their warehouses, which were imported at the previous rates of utilization tax, price growth due to its double increase this year will not be avoided. Therefore, in the best case scenario, car sales in 2025 will reach the same level as in 2024. Most likely, the market will even decrease by 10-20%, - the expert believes.
The year 2024 was characterized by wave-like ups and downs in sales, says Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG.
- In the first half of the year the market demonstrated moderate growth, in August-October there was a significant jump in sales on the background of the news about the growth of scrappage duty, followed by a sharp downward correction in November-December. Similar fluctuations were observed in credit sales. The level of penetration of credit transactions for a number of key brands reached 90%, but in winter there is a decline in this sector due to high interest rates of banks and difficulties with loan approval," he told Izvestia.
According to the expert, a decline in car sales is expected this year. The optimistic forecast for this year is still seen at the level of 1.4-1.5 million cars, Renat Tyukteev believes.
