Busted: Russian fertilizers are blocked in Europe
About 100,000 tons of Russian mineral fertilizers remain blocked in European ports, said Dmitry Konyaev, general director of Uralchem. At the same time, the company has supplied about 200,000 tons of fertilizers as humanitarian aid to various countries, he noted. In the next 10 years, the Russian Federation plans to invest about 1.5-1.7 trillion rubles in the industry. What will be the volumes and directions of Russia's supplies this year, "Izvestia" analyzed.
Key indicators
The expert community does not expect a strong growth in fertilizer production in 2025, said Denis Soloviev, leading analyst for corporate ratings at Expert RA.
- We believe that production volumes of Russian fertilizer producers will moderately increase in line with global demand. According to our estimates, in 2025, Russian companies' volumes may grow by up to 5-7%. As for the direction of supply, we also do not expect significant changes: Asia and Latin America will remain the main markets," the expert told Izvestia.
The Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAPU) earlier noted that the Russian Federation in 2025 can increase the production of mineral fertilizers to 64-65 million tons, exports - over 42 million tons.
In 2024, according to preliminary estimates, Russia's fertilizer output grew by more than 6% to 63 million tons, with exports exceeding 40 million tons.
"We can say that the industry has managed to return to pre-crisis volumes of both production and exports. Moreover, in 2023, mineral fertilizer production increased to 59 million tons (in 2022 - 54 million tons), but today we can already forecast an increase in production to 63 million tons by the end of 2024. This is a significant increase. As for exports, the figures are also optimistic: at the end of January-September this year we exported almost 27 million tons of minerals, in the same period of 2023 - 25 million tons of products", - said Anton Alikhanov.
Over the past 9 years, according to the head of RAPU Andrey Guriev, about 2 trillion rubles were invested in the segment of mineral fertilizers. In addition, fertilizer supplies to the domestic market will amount to about 5.5 million tons, which is also a historical maximum.
By 2030, it is planned to reach 80 million tons of domestic production. It is planned to invest about 1.5-1.7 trillion rubles in the industry in the next 10 years, said Andrey Guryev.
In addition, by the end of 2025 it is planned to launch a new terminal for transshipment of dry mineral fertilizers Port Favor in Ust-Luga in the Leningrad region with the opening of the first technological line. Upon completion of commissioning, the terminal is expected to reach its design capacity of 8 million tonnes of fertilizers per year.
Key areas of focus
Despite the sanctions, Russia is gradually increasing the volume of supplies every year, Ivan Abramov, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, told Izvestia. At the same time, in the current situation, Moscow plans to further expand the number of export routes.
In particular, starting from 2025 the Russian Federation will start subsidizing a part of logistics operators' costs when supplying export products from the Russian Federation via new routes to Latin America and Africa (south of the Sahara). Roman Chekushov, State Secretary - Deputy Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, reported earlier that in the first year it is planned to allocate 1.2 billion rubles for "rolling out" these routes. According to him, among the priority routes at the first stage will be Latin America with a focus on Brazil as Russia's BRICS partner.
According to RAPU, fertilizer shipments to Asia grew by 60% in 2024, to Africa by 18% and to Latin America by 20% compared to last year's level. Fertilizer shipments to the domestic market amounted to 5.5 million tonnes.
At the same time, Russia is ready to increase supplies of mineral fertilizers and aluminum products to India after reaching agreements with Indian partners to reduce import tariffs, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Dmitry Volvach said earlier. Demand is growing, and Russian products in this nomenclature are characterized by high quality and competitive prices.
Impact on the European market
At the same time, European countries continue to buy from Russia. According to the Rzeczpospolita newspaper, Poland imported a record 318 million euros worth of fertilizers from Russia in 2024. According to Arkadiusz Zalewski, an analyst of the agricultural resources market at the Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics, the corresponding figures were higher only in 2017.
The growing dependence not only of Poland but of the entire European Union on Russian fertilizers poses a serious threat to its agricultural sector and food security, and even reflects its previous dependence on Russian natural gas, Rzeczpospolita noted.
Earlier, in response to a call for the European Commission to impose tariffs on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus submitted in late November by Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, other EU countries said they would consider supporting the Polish initiative at a later stage. According to the Polish Ministry of Development and Technology, customs duties could be as high as 30%. However, Warsaw admits that it cannot count on the support of all EU countries.
Freight liberation
At the same time, the issue of "unblocking" fertilizers in European ports rather depends not on some point actions of politicians on specific companies, goods and cargoes, but rather on the general policy of the EU regarding sanctions on Russia, said Denis Soloviev.
- Until the wind changes in the other direction, we can hardly expect any positive actions with regard to the blocked fertilizers. So far, the most likely option is to send these cargoes as humanitarian aid, as it has been done before," he said.
Since the end of 2022, Russia has sent about 190,000 tons of its fertilizers to developing countries free of charge, having paid sea freight and other transportation costs, Ivan Abramov recalled. At the same time, more than 166,000 tons of this volume were delivered from European ports with the assistance of the UN World Food Program (WFP) - to Malawi, Kenya, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and now to Sri Lanka.
"Izvestia" sent inquiries to the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Industry and Trade, but at the time of publication no answers had been received.
