Everyone is employed: unemployment rate in Central Russia reached a minimum of 1.6%
Unemployment in Central Russia has fallen to a minimum of 1.6%, according to the Central Bank's materials. This is the lowest indicator among all federal districts. On average in the Russian Federation in December, unemployment amounted to 2.3%. The main reasons for such dynamics are the general shortage of personnel against the background of the demographic hole of the 90s and the relocation of specialists to Moscow. Low unemployment forces companies to raise salaries, but this also accelerates inflation, and the shortage of personnel slows down economic growth, experts explained. Whether the trend will continue in 2025 and how business will compete for staff - in the material of "Izvestia".
Unemployment in Central Russia
The unemployment rate in the Central Federal District of Russia (CFD) has been gradually decreasing all last year: in January it amounted to 2.2%, in summer it was already at the level of 1.8%. And in October, according to the latest current data, it dropped to a minimum of 1.6%, according to the Central Bank's report on the regional economy (analyzed by Izvestia).
The situation on the labor market varies significantly by region. The Bank of Russia collects data on its seven main departments in different parts of the country. According to its data, the highest unemployment rate in October was in the south - 4.5% and in Siberia - 2.9%. The lowest rate was in Central Russia. Only slightly higher in the Urals - 1.7%. In general, according to the regulator, the rate in the country in October was 2.4%. However, already in December unemployment fell to 2.3%, Russian President Vladimir Putin reported at a press conference, combined with a live line "Results of the year".
TheCentral Federal District has almost always been the leader in terms of the lowest unemployment rate, said Anna Gondusova, Head of Product Development at Alfa Capital Management Company. She added: the population of Central Russia is the most numerous, but it is here that most vacancies are concentrated. Therefore, the shortage of personnel is felt most acutely.
Developed infrastructure in the form of transportation, communications and services makes Central Russia attractive for investment and business, which contributes to the creation of new jobs, agreed Anton Meltsov, founder of the insurance brokerage company AMsec24. In addition, in recent years, the fight against shadow employment has been intensified and more attractive conditions for formal employment have been created, said Farida Mirzabalaeva, associate professor of the basic department of CCI "Human Resource Management" at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University.
The Central Federal District is becoming a center of attraction for internal and external migration, which hinders the development of the regions, said Kirill Chebakov, managing partner of WE-ON Group.
What specialists are most in short supply
In the conditions of import substitution and ensuring technological leadership, new production facilities are being developed, additional jobs are being created - this helps to reduce unemployment, said "Izvestia" in the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor of the Ministry of Labor.
According to Rostrud data for the end of the third quarter of 2024, the minimum share of the unemployed is in agriculture, mining and processing industries, construction and medicine, the institute added.
The Central Federal District accounts for more than a third of the total volume of vacancies in the country, said Natalia Danina, chief expert of hh.ru on the labor market. According to Central Bank analysts, the growth of industry in Central Russia in October outpaced the national average largely due to the development in the Moscow region production of computers, electronic and optical products. According to the expert, in addition to industry, the most difficult situation with the shortage of personnel in the district remains in retail trade, automobile business, and medicine.
In the same spheres due to the increased demand for workers the most active salary race is observed, she continued. Thus, car dealers in the CFD increased their offers for the year by 29%, up to Br125 thousand, she said. Production personnel have raised their salaries by 20% (up to Br100 thousand), and workers - by 18% (up to Br94 thousand). At the same time, the average increase in all professional areas in the district amounted to 17% (up to 82 thousand).
- The shortage of employees across the country is a problem that has been lingering for several years. The deficit is caused by the consequences of the demographic hole of the 90s, the trend for stability among job seekers, the popularity of part-time employment, as well as the outflow of migrants, who previously filled the need for low-skilled workers. In addition, personnel training is not balanced," explained Aleksandr Veterkov, deputy general director of Work.ru.
The shortage is most acute in the country in manufacturing and logistics companies, in services and IT, shared in SuperJob. At the same time, the most in demand are qualified workers, drivers, machinists, employees in retail and couriers, they added. Also in greatest need of personnel in health care, education, social protection, housing and utilities and agriculture, listed Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Safonov.
Last year, the increase in salary offers across Russia ranged from 6 to 25%, said Alexander Veterkov. At the same time, the gap in earnings between employees from Moscow and the regions has narrowed over the year, SuperJob added. In other words, the shortage of staff is relevant for the whole country.
Will salaries grow in 2025?
Low unemployment has a positive effect on the economy in many ways: it forces employers to raise wages and invest in technology improvements and new equipment, increase labor productivity, and change their approach in relations with subordinates, believes Alexander Safonov from the University of Finance.
A low national figure is a positive marker of economic growth, agreed Kirill Chebakov of WE-ON Group. It means that it needs to attract more qualified personnel.
At the same time, the record staff shortage is limiting the pace of economic growth, as workers are needed to expand business and production, emphasized Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global. And the wage race is accelerating inflation: people are earning more, so consumer demand and household spending are growing.
However, the possibilities of the wage race are almost exhausted. Salary growth is likely to slow down in 2025, and businesses will compete for staff with the help of non-material bonuses, believes Alexander Veterkov from "Work.ru". He added: hiring is expensive for companies, so many employers will be more likely to retain old staff rather than attract new ones.
Companies will need to switch to labor-saving technologies, which in the medium term will help contain price growth, Alexander Safonov noted.
- Of course, 2025 will not lead to "zero" unemployment. There will always be gaps between people willing to work and job offers. However, most likely, 2025 will be the first year of balancing the market on the basis of a new model - labor saving. The growth of labor productivity will reduce the need for personnel, but for this employers must reorganize themselves, rather than waiting for the return of cheap labor, - said Alexander Safonov.
At the same time, in order to reduce the outflow of personnel to Central Russia, it is necessary to support investment in less developed regions of Russia to create new jobs and improve infrastructure, said Anton Meltsov from the company "Insurance broker AMsec24".
To improve the market situation, it is now necessary to train young specialists in those areas where there is the greatest shortage of employees, as well as to create conditions for the return of those who have left the country, said Alexei Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group.
Slow, but more fundamental effect will be given by measures to stimulate the birth rate, said Anna Gondusova from Alfa Capital Management Company. However, the result will be felt only in two decades. She also summarized that in order to cover the shortage of personnel, conditions should be created for immigration of foreign specialists to Russia.
