Limit of values: dollar will not exceed RUB 105 in Q1
The dollar will trade in the range of RUB 100-105 in Q1, despite the fact that the Central Bank has resumed currency operations in the domestic market, which it postponed in November to stabilize the exchange rate. This forecast was shared by the experts interviewed by Izvestia. Although the Russian currency broke through the mark of 113 rubles per "American" on January 1, in general, the fall in demand for foreign money from importers and the upcoming inauguration of Trump on January 20 will support it. What will happen to the ruble exchange rate - in the material "Izvestia".
Dollar exchange rate on New Year holidays
On January 9, the ruble strengthened to the level of 102 per dollar and 105.2 per euro, follows from Trading View data. Judging by Forex quotes (a market for trading foreign currencies), its exchange rate has increased by almost 10% since the beginning of the year. In the period from December 30 to January 6, the national currency traded around 110 per dollar, and on January 1, it broke through the mark of 113.6 per "American" - this level became the minimum for the entire time of trading. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the dollar will cost about 100-105 rubles in the first quarter.
Banks traditionally buy currency at the close of the year - it is a kind of insurance against risks before the long New Year holidays, explained analyst of FG "Finam" Alexander Potavin. At the very end of last year , liquidity in the markets was traditionally low, so the growth of applications for the purchase of currency from credit organizations led to a surge in volatility.
In addition, individuals and businesses also steadily accelerated demand for currency by the end of 2024, noted Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Importers used it to buy goods in demand during the holidays, while the population stocked up on money for New Year's trips abroad. By the end of the holidays, the situation calmed down, so the exchange rate stabilized.
However, the ruble quotations on the Forex market may not be reliable enough to determine the fair value of the national currency, says Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market "BKS World of Investments". For example, the exchange rate of the yuan remained near the level of 13.7 rubles, as on the last trading day on December 30, 2024.
The first days of the year mean little for the future direction of the exchange rate - the strengthening of the ruble on January 9 should not be perceived with excessive optimism, according to Natalia Pyrieva, a leading analyst of "Tsifra Broker". As the market returns to normal operation mode, the value of the national currency will be determined by the trade and balance of payments indicators, which will be published on January 20 and 21, respectively. These indicators give the most accurate picture of the inflow and outflow of currency from the country and allow to predict how its supply in the domestic market will change.
How the Central Bank's operations with currency will affect the dollar exchange rate
Since the first working day of 2025, the Central Bank has resumed purchases of currency on the domestic market, which it conducts to mirror the Ministry of Finance's operations under the budget rule, according to the regulator's message. Before that, the Bank of Russia postponed such transactions in late November, when the dollar jumped sharply - this momentarily supported the national currency. When the Central Bank buys up foreign money, there is less of it on the market, which means that the dollar and euro strengthen.
The resumption of Central Bank operations in the market will reduce the total supply of foreign money in the market - this may lead to a slight weakening of the ruble, said Mikhail Zeltser from "BKS World of Investments. But, according to him, there will not be a strong fall in the exchange rate, if the trade balance is positive and the inflow of foreign money in Russia is higher than the outflow. A similar position is held in "Tsifra Broker".
Operations of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, which account for only 1-2% of the average volume of currency trading per day - not the only factor that will determine the ruble exchange rate in the coming days, emphasized Alexander Potavin of Finam. Traditionally, in January, after the end of the holidays, the demand for currency on the part of importers significantly decreases. This factor may swing the balance on the currency market in favor of a stronger ruble rate.
When to buy dollars
Itmakes sense to buy dollars when the ruble shows signs of strengthening, which can be observed now, said Natalia Pyrieva from "Tsifra Broker". In addition, the Russian market expects that the entry into office of the new U.S. President Donald Trump on January 20 will lead to a warming of relations between the country and Russia. We should not be overly optimistic, but in general, after this date, we can expect additional strengthening of the ruble.
The national currency is also supported by the growth of oil prices - a barrel of Brent is now trading at the maximum level of $76 since October, Natalia Pyryeva added. Oil and gas revenues account for 60% of all Russian exports, so it is on them that the inflow of currency into the country depends.
The dollar will cost about 100-105 rubles in the first quarter, said Alexander Potavin of Finam. Freedom Finance Global believes that the exchange rate will gravitate to the upper boundary of this range.
Nevertheless, the ruble will retain a tendency to moderate weakening - up to 115 per dollar, are convinced in "Tsifra Broker". The Russian market in 2025 will continue to lack liquidity, because the potential for export growth is severely limited by sanctions, and the demand for imports remains stable. Finam agrees with this opinion - they expect the ruble to weaken to the range of 115-120 per dollar this year.
At the same time, the EU's new package of sanctions may further restrict the "shadow fleet" of the Russian Federation, which will make it very difficult to supply energy resources to other countries and reduce the income of exporters, added economist Andrei Barkhota. An additional factor in favor of long-term weakening of the ruble is a possible delay in the procedure of settling the Ukrainian conflict.
Practice shows that the Russian authorities have two effective mechanisms for stabilizing the exchange rate - purchases on the open market and regulations on repatriation of foreign currency earnings of exporters, recalled Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. The latter instrument has been in place since October 2023 and now obliges a number of companies to return at least 40% of their earnings to the Russian market.
All this allows the authorities to regulate the ruble exchange rate almost manually, strengthening it to values comfortable for the budget. If the ruble falls too far, the authorities will be able to promptly return it to an adequate range, the expert believes.
