The last bailout: Ukraine risks losing support for the Ramstein format
Following the Ramstein meeting on January 9, the outgoing US administration announced the last package of $500m in military aid to Kiev. The US delegation was headed by Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, while President Joe Biden did not show up at the meeting again. After Donald Trump's return to the White House, the volume of US support for Ukraine may decrease, and meetings in the "Ramstein" format may cease to exist, experts believe. It is possible that Washington will shift part of the burden of support for Kiev onto the shoulders of European allies. The Izvestia article discusses the prospects of Western military aid to Kiev.
US announces new aid package for Kiev
On January 9, at a meeting in the "Ramstein" format, Ukraine's allies approved roadmaps for eight areas of assistance until 2027. The outgoing US administration announced its latest $500 million military aid package, which included additional missiles for air defense systems, ammunition and air-to-ground projectiles. The meeting was attended by Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The meeting was opened by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
US President Joe Biden again failed to show up at the contact group meeting. In October 2024, he canceled his visit to the "special" meeting of "Ramstein" because of Hurricane Milton. As a result, the event was postponed indefinitely, and Biden himself arrived in Germany a few days later for talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This time he canceled his visit to Italy due to a new natural disaster - forest fires in California.
- It is clear that Joe Biden as president is waning. The media do not pay as much attention to him as they do to Trump, whose accession to power is just days away. Biden himself and physically problematic to fulfill his duties, the age aspect should not be ignored. It makes no sense for him to go to Ramstein," Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
At the same time, in the expert's opinion, the meetings in the Ramstein format are necessary, first, to show Euro-Atlantic solidarity towards Ukraine. Secondly, to make it clear that the future administration will continue to support Kiev. Most likely, this will be the case, the expert believes.
However, The New York Times stated that the future of the Ramstein contact group is unclear. According to the newspaper, "it is unclear whether it will continue under the new administration," as Trump is "extremely skeptical" about supporting Ukraine.
"Maybe this is the last meeting in this format, as the new administration in the United States is very likely to propose another formula for activity," Polish Defense Ministry head Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said the day before.
According to Vladimir Brovkin, an American historian and former Harvard University lecturer, the Ramstein format is becoming irrelevant and its meetings have no special significance.
- The only sensible thing they can discuss there is how much financially the Europeans can put on their shoulders. Donald Trump has made it absolutely clear that he will be winding down the current level of funding, and he intends to do diplomatic work with the Russian side. But it's worth noting that Europe basically has no money - neither France, nor England, nor Germany. Moreover, elections in European states have repeatedly shown that the public does not want a continued conflict and escalation with Russia," Vladimir Brovkin told Izvestia.
The new head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, has said that the EU is ready to take the initiative to support Ukraine if the US is no longer willing to do so. For now, Europe is still falling short of the US. Since the beginning of the SWO, EU countries have provided €47.3 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Total US military aid to Ukraine under Biden exceeded $66.5 billion.
Nevertheless, Germany has already promised to train 10,000 Ukrainian servicemen in 2025. In addition, Berlin intends to transfer about 50 guided missiles for IRIS-T air defense systems. Britain, Latvia and other NATO countries plan to jointly transfer 30 thousand drones to Ukraine for 45 million pounds. So far, the drone coalition has raised about 73 million pounds (nearly $90 million) from international partners, of which Britain has provided 15 million pounds ($18.5 million).
Prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine
Trump's return to the Oval Office could help resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Since his election on Nov. 5, Trump has had time to tentatively build a loyal and partially anti-war apparatus for his new administration. His rhetoric has undergone only a few changes. In particular, on January 8, he said he was giving himself six months to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Earlier in his formulations, a period of 24-48 hours was repeatedly glimpsed. The British Foreign Ministry suggests that a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine under Trump could be reached by the end of April.
- Much more importantly, the day before Trump openly said that Ukraine has no place in NATO. This is probably a historic statement that opens up serious possibilities for negotiations on Ukraine's future," says Volodymyr Brovkin.
After the official approval of the election results by the US Congress on January 6, the 47th US president made a number of statements related to the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. His main thesis is that the Biden administration made a mistake by allowing Kiev's possible membership in NATO. He once again criticized the policy of the Democrats, which led to the ignition of the crisis. Trump also expressed his willingness to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Despite Trump's intention to follow the path of political settlement of the conflict, his appointed special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg noted the day before that the US president-elect would not make concessions to Moscow. At the same time, he said that the politician wants the conflict to end as soon as possible and called Joe Biden's refusal to negotiate with Moscow a mistake. These contradictory statements do not allow for an unambiguous assessment of further prospects for a diplomatic settlement. According to Vladimir Brovkin, Keith Kellogg does not have serious political weight.
- Almost the entire future Trump administration will do what he tells them to do. Therefore, it does not matter what the special envoy on Ukraine says. There is a field for some kind of negotiations one way or another. The main direction is that Ukraine will not be in NATO. Here the diplomatic skills of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will also be important," the expert believes.
He also believes that the world is undergoing a major geopolitical restructuring, and there are questions about the very future of the North Atlantic alliance.
- Northern Europe will probably continue its anti-Russian policy and will probably continue to support Ukraine to the best of its modest abilities. As for Germany, it is likely that they, along with Austria, the Balkans, Greece, Hungary, and Slovakia, will gradually begin to show interest in Russia as an economic, and perhaps even political, partner. Eventually we will see a split in Europe. NATO has outlived its usefulness to America, and if so, the alliance as a whole has outlived its usefulness. For the US, the priority is China. From Trump's point of view, Europe has to fend for itself. We are in for a delicate and important political negotiation. We are witnessing the birth of a new world. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly talked about it," said Vladimir Brovkin.
Konstantin Blokhin is less optimistic and believes that it is a mistake to think that Washington will completely withdraw its support for Ukraine.
- All this is not an indicator of a change in the trajectory of the American course towards Ukraine. After all, it is not only the course on the part of the US that matters, but also on the part of Europe. Trump's priority is China, but Europe is likely to continue supporting Ukraine, which means that the financial burden of helping Kiev and containing Russia will fall on the shoulders of the Europeans. For that reason, the scale won't be what it used to be, it won't be as easy to get support initiatives through Congress as it was under Biden. Besides, we remember that the main element of criticism regarding the aid to Ukraine is inefficient spending of funds. Most likely, control will be strengthened," the analyst believes.
In his opinion, Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. The West is not interested in this either, as it does not want to drastically increase spending on Kiev's armament and enter into a direct conflict with the Russian Federation, the expert said.
