The crisis is not far off: Azerbaijan and Armenia on the threshold of a new war
A new crisis has emerged in the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. President Ilham Aliyev gave an interview in which he listed in detail numerous claims against the neighbors. According to him, Yerevan should refuse to buy arms and "fascist ideology" and agree to accept hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis on its territory. Experts believe that Baku is thus preparing the ground for a new escalation. "Izvestia" analyzed the situation.
Aliyev demands demilitarization of Armenia
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev gave an interview to Azerbaijani media, in which he listed in detail his numerous claims to Armenia. In particular, he repeated his thesis that Yerevan should rewrite the constitution of the country, because it indirectly speaks about the desire to reunite with Karabakh. In addition, he demanded that the Armenian authorities agree to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, which was established to settle the Karabakh conflict.
The third point is that Armenia should refuse to rearm its army. According to Aliyev, Yerevan should, among other things, cancel the concluded contracts and return the already purchased weapons to the suppliers. "The armament process taking place in Armenia is certainly a new threat factor for the South Caucasus. I have already spoken about it, I want to say again that we cannot be outside observers and stand idly by," he warned.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
Aliyev also demanded that the neighboring state agree to the creation of the Zangezur corridor, a road that would link Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan enclave and Turkey. "We want them not to interfere with us, not to act as a geographical barrier. Why should we travel to Nakhichevan, which is an integral part of Azerbaijan, by various other ways? They should not make us nervous, they should realize that here the right to vote belongs to us," he said.
Finally, Aliyev said some 300,000 Azerbaijani refugees should return to their homes in Armenia. "Look at the maps of the Russian Empire of the 19th century. There you can see that all toponyms are of Azerbaijani origin. Or - on the maps of the Russian Empire of the early XX century. There, too, all the names of cities are of Azerbaijani origin. There you will not see a lake called "Sevan", it says "Goycha". When we say that these are our historical lands, we are telling the truth," he noted.
Baku declared about the right of the strong
In general, the Azerbaijani leader speaks directly about the readiness for a new war. According to him, the neighboring country is dominated by fascist ideology, which must be destroyed. "The occupation policy against us is not only a product of Armenia. It is a joint product of Islamophobic, Azerbaijanophobic, racist, xenophobic circles of foreign countries in solidarity with it. We neighbor such a fascist state, and the threat does not disappear. That is why fascism must be destroyed. Either the leadership of Armenia or we will do it," he warned.
Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani servicemen in Aghdam
At the same time, Aliyev summarized the theoretical basis for a possible armed escalation. According to him, the old world order established on the planet after World War II is dying out. It is being replaced by a new world order, within the framework of which Baku will have an advantage. "Azerbaijan is the leading economy, the leading military power and the leading state in the South Caucasus. In the modern world, the factor of power is in the foreground and no one should forget about it," he noted.
In addition, the Azerbaijani leader noted that the Armenian leadership should take into account the geopolitical realities. The fact is that Yerevan's main allies are now facing serious difficulties. Thus, in Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, in France the governmental turmoil continues unabated, "in America the era of Soros is over", in the Middle East the regime of Bashar al-Assad has crashed. "I would advise the Armenian side to weigh everything well, their close friends are leaving the political arena in disgrace," Aliyev said.
Armenia counts on the EU's help
In Armenia, all these lengthy arguments caused a shock reaction. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Baku was provoking escalation in the region. "Aggressive statements are made with the expectation that a response will follow from Yerevan, which will allow Baku to make even more aggressive statements, combining this with the dissemination of false information about the ceasefire violation by the Armenian army to form a justification for a new escalation," he stressed, adding that Armenia will not go down this path, but will stick to a peaceful agenda.
In turn, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said that the thesis about Azerbaijani refugees is a territorial claim to Armenia. "To call the territory of our country Western Azerbaijan means to speak about claims to our territorial integrity and sovereignty. The name of the community of West Azerbaijan speaks of the same. This is another artificial, expansionist project supported by the Azerbaijani authorities," he said, adding that about 500,000 Armenians have fled Azerbaijan, but Baku is in no hurry to accept them.
Interestingly, the sides have also activated on the foreign policy track. On January 8, Ilham Aliyev called Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who assured his interlocutor that Ankara "will always be close to Azerbaijan". On January 9, the Armenian government supported the draft law on integration with the European Union, and now the document will be submitted to the parliament for consideration. At the same time, Russia emphasizes its equidistance. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Moscow will continue to develop good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Experts predict escalation
Armenian political analyst Tigran Kocharyan believes that an armed conflict may break out in the South Caucasus in the near future.
- Azerbaijan may strike near Syunik region, through which Baku wants to lay the so-called Zangezur corridor. Additional strikes could follow along the entire perimeter of the border, as Aliyev calls almost all of Armenia Western Azerbaijan. It is hard to say whether Armenia will be able to respond adequately. Nikol Pashinyan and his team have damaged relations with old allies, but have not found new ones. For example, France supported Yerevan in its quarrel with the CSTO, but did not give any security guarantees itself," he notes.
Alexander Krylov, chief researcher of the Caucasus sector of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the IMEMO RAS, says it is disadvantageous for Azerbaijan to conclude a peace treaty because Baku can achieve more by force.
- A peace agreement would only fix the situation that has developed so far. But Armenia continues to weaken, and Azerbaijan believes that the dynamics is in their favor. Under such conditions, a new escalation scenario looks more realistic. At the same time, peace talks will probably continue. After all, the dialog within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group was conducted for 30 years, the parties never came to anything, and in the end the Karabakh issue was resolved by force," he argues.
