Not to lose chapters: political situation in Georgia stabilizes after inauguration
Mikhail Kavelashvili officially became the new head of Georgia at the end of the year with his inauguration on December 29. Kavelashvili was nominated for election by the ruling Georgian Dream party, and is known for his criticism of the West. Alongside Kavelashvili's inauguration, ex-leader Salome Zurabishvili left the presidential residence, despite many statements that she had no intention of leaving her seat. The ceremony was accompanied by protests, but it is hard to call them large-scale. Experts tell Izvestia that the unrest is likely to subside in the coming months. It is also possible that the West will start a dialog with the new president.
Mikhail Kavelashvili became president of Georgia
On December 29, a new national leader, Mikhail Kavelashvili, was inaugurated in Georgia and officially took office as the sixth president of Georgia. He is the first head of the republic, who was determined not by a direct vote of the country's population, but by the decision of an electoral college of 300 people.
The candidacy of the elected president was earlier nominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party. Kavelashvili is a former soccer player: he played for Dinamo Tbilisi, with which he became the Georgian champion six times. Later he became the Russian champion with Spartak-Alania in Vladikavkaz. After that he played in Manchester City and a number of Swiss clubs.
Georgia's new president-elect Mikhail Kavelashvili takes the oath of office at the parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia, December 29, 2024
The president-elect entered politics in 2016, winning a seat in parliament on the lists of the Georgian Dream. In 2022, he and several deputies left the party and founded the Power of the People movement, which is known for criticizing the West and, in particular, the United States. Nevertheless, Kavelashvili ran in the 2024 parliamentary elections on the Dreams party list. He made it to the legislature but was stripped of his mandate after he decided to run in the presidential elections.
It is noteworthy that Kavelashvili was one of the initiators of the law on foreign agents, the adoption of which was accompanied by opposition protests in the country.
Kavelashvili was the only candidate for the presidency. The Georgian opposition did not recognize the results of this year's parliamentary elections. It did not nominate a candidate and refused to vote because it believes that the current composition of the parliament, and consequently the electoral college, is illegitimate. Representatives of the opposition recognize only Salome Zurabishvili as the head of state, who is actually considered to be their formal leader.
It should be emphasized that Georgia is a parliamentary republic. The president has no serious powers, he performs mainly representative functions. However, the Georgian Dream has had a conflict with Zurabishvili over the past years, who tried to block their initiatives. And although the parliament majority can always override her veto, it is obvious that the ruling party benefits from having a like-minded person in the presidential chair.
Outgoing Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili speaks at the Orbeliani Presidential Palace in Tbilisi, Georgia, December 29, 2024
On December 29, Salome Zurabishvili left the presidential residence in parallel with the inauguration. Although earlier she repeatedly emphasized that she would not do so.
Zurabishvili was also going to announce a new parliamentary vote by her own decision. Georgian legislation allows for the appointment of a new election, but only if the CEC and the Constitutional Court recognize the past elections as invalid. However, these bodies, on the contrary, confirmed their legitimacy. Therefore, the former president demanded that by December 22, the ruling party itself should announce the appointment of a new vote. The "Dream", of course, did not do so.
The refusal to leave the chair after the inauguration of the new president is a violation of the law, and Zurabishvili understands this, Nikolai Silaev, a senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Issues at MGIMO, tells Izvestia.
People gather at the fence of Orbeliani presidential palace during an address by outgoing Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili in Tbilisi, Georgia, Dec. 29, 2024
- If she were to fulfill her promise not to step down after her powers expired, it would be a usurpation of power. And Salome Zurabishvili decided not to commit a criminal offense," the expert added.
Zurabishvili's recent high-profile statements are just a publicity play in front of the West in order to get a new position after the end of the presidential term.
- Zurabishvili's activity shows that she realizes that this is her last political activity. She was publicizing, her task was to show herself to external partners and try to sell her political asset in order to get a favorable offer from the West," Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector at the IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia.
What will be the situation in the republic
The inauguration process was not accompanied by mass protests, only a few citizens were detained for blocking traffic.
In general, actions have been taking place in the country since late October. After the announcement of the results of the parliamentary elections, four opposition parties resigned their parliamentary mandates, and Salome Zurabishvili called on the population to come out to protests.
The most massive rallies took place in parallel with significant political events, for example, after the suspension of the European integration talks and during the post-election session of the legislators. In the first case, protesters even tried to set fire to the parliament building. Therefore, the inauguration of the president was seen by many as the last opportunity to radically destabilize the situation in the republic.
- Protests will continue for the time being, they are sponsored by Western organizations and local organizations advocating rapprochement with the West. However, gradually, including with the departure of Zurabishvili, who called for the rallies, they will subside," Georgian political analyst Petre Mamradze told Izvestia.
Although OSCE observers recognized the election as legitimate, many states have called for a rerun in Georgia. In addition, the U.S. and the EU have increased pressure on the country by freezing some financial aid, suspending joint programs and imposing sanctions against Georgian officials and more than a hundred citizens.
The Georgian government's relations with the West have cooled considerably due to the ruling party's adoption of a law on transparency of foreign influence. Rallies against the approval of this document began to take place in the republic in April. Also with the help of "Dream", Georgia approved a law banning LGBT propaganda (the movement is recognized as extremist in Russia). After that, the West and, consequently, the opposition began to accuse the Georgian Dream not only of cooling relations with the EU, but also of a "pro-Russian course". The Dream explained that after the start of the SWO in Ukraine, the West began to call for opening a second front in Georgia to confront Russia and impose sanctions against it. Such a move would have dire economic consequences for Georgia, because Moscow, despite the rupture of diplomatic relations, is still Tbilisi's most important trade and economic partner.
But it is not excluded that now the West will still go for dialog with the new Georgian authorities, including Mikhail Kavelashvili.
- Brussels has not destroyed all bridges. There were, for example, contacts between French President Emmanuel Macron and [former Georgian Prime Minister] Bidzina Ivanishvili and there were contacts with the Georgian Foreign Ministry. The West did not say unequivocally that they do not recognize the victory of the Georgian Dream," Nikolay Silaev noted.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze
According to him, the West is now weighing the potential of the opposition and assessing whether the continuation of the political crisis in this country will benefit them. At the same time, it is likely that normal political life will be restored in Georgia in the near future, and most of the opposition will return to the parliament, the expert believes.
Three of the four Georgian parties that are not currently participating in the work of the parliament have not refused state funding. Only the Coalition for Change has signed a waiver. De facto, receiving money from the government already means recognizing its legitimacy.
Even before the parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze emphasized that one of the most important priorities of "Dream" is the settlement of relations with Moscow. The Russian side is ready to continue the process of normalization of bilateral ties with Georgia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in November. It is possible that after the normalization of the domestic political situation in the republic, relations between Moscow and Tbilisi may warm up.
