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In December, the Bank of Russia suspended and possibly completed the process of monetary policy tightening (MPT), President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing the withdrawal of dividends from IIS-3 accounts, and the Moscow Exchange Index bounced upwards from its minimum value of 2370 points to 2786 points. What events of the year influenced the market the most and what yields were shown by different investment portfolios - in the material of Izvestia.
The results of the year
The main financial event of this year, obviously, was an unexpected for many serious increase in the key rate to 21% - while at the beginning of the year rhetoric did not suggest its growth above 16%. Based on this, many market participants began to fix high yields in long bonds at this very level, which as a result brought only serious drawdowns in portfolios at the end of the year. Therefore, experts remind that one should buy instruments gradually, adjusting the strategy in accordance with the market dynamics.
Another important event of the year, indirectly affecting the stock market, was the change of legislation regarding the taxation of individuals. The introduction of a progressive scale will bring more money to the budget at the expense of those whose incomes significantly exceed the national average.
Also, in 2024, the program of preferential mortgages ended, after which only its family version remained - as a result, issuance volumes slowed down significantly in the second half of the year. Potentially, this scenario means that the growth of real estate prices will slow down significantly and those Russians who bought it for investment purposes will direct their funds to the stock market and support its growth.
Currency under the pillow - dollars and euros
According to the results of December, the portfolio of dollars and euros fell by 8.14%, and its total value amounted to Br238.2 thousand. Since the beginning of the year, it showed a yield of 9.02%, which can be considered one of the best indicators among other options.
Finam analyst Ivan Pukhovoy explains that the currency portfolio went into correction during December after the Central Bank's statements in late November on the suspension of currency purchase operations in the domestic market within the framework of mirroring the regular operations of the Ministry of Finance. This was done in order to cool down the ardor of speculators and stop the ruble weakening.
On the whole, the return on currency turned out to be noticeably lower than the interest that could be earned on ruble deposits - and, most likely, the same situation will be observed next year. The situation is similar for many other portfolios.
Few people have seen them live - yuan, lira and Belarusian rubles
The total value of the portfolio of exotic currencies also went down in December, but the level of volatility was lower than that of classical currencies - as a result, it fell in price by 6.24% to Br151.1 thousand. Over the year, the indicator grew by 4.4%.
In absolute terms, it is still the worst result among other portfolios - due to the previously realized risk of a sudden stop of exchange trading in Swiss francs. It is important that taking into account the traditionally higher volatility, the portfolio result should have been better than that of classical currencies, but this did not happen.
It's just like in the bank - five government bond issues with monthly payments
The portfolio of federal bonds for the month showed a noticeable growth in its nominal value - the assets rose in price by 8.04%, up to 218.9 thousand rubles. But the final annual yield turned out to be negative, amounting to minus 3.06%. Among all other options, the OFZ portfolio is one of the two that went into the minus at the end of the year.
Ivan Pukhovoy notes that the positive recovery dynamics was strengthened after the Central Bank's statements regarding the interest rate. The market expected another increase, but the regulator decided to keep the current rate, as there was a more significant tightening of monetary conditions than previously assumed. This means that yields will level off in the medium term and the outcome will not be long in coming.
Large companies, not the Ministry of Finance - five issues of corporate bonds
Traditionally higher yielding corporate bonds performed better than many other portfolios, taking the second place in terms of yield. Over the month the portfolio appreciated by 3.15%, up to Br260.4 thousand, while the annualized rate amounted to 8.42%.
The positive result in this portfolio is largely due to the fact that the bonds included in it are designed for a shorter term - among other events, debt securities of PIK company were redeemed by the end of the year. This shows once again how important it is to diversify investment instruments and balance your strategies.
There is no better share than in a share - shares of Russian blue chips
The stock market in December, along with others, returned to growth on the news about the preservation of the key rate - it added 6.43%, and its total value reached 262.4 thousand rubles. But at the end of the year, the absolute indicator remained almost unchanged, increasing by 1.04%.
Finam notes that the December rebound in shares shows how important it is for investors to keep an eye on various signals and adjust their investment strategy accordingly. As the key rate decreases, investors' funds will start flowing into shares again, which will strengthen the positive dynamics of such instruments.
Eyes fear, but hands do - speculative stocks with high potential
The portfolio of speculative stocks reacted much more restrained to the rate hike, increasing in price only by 2.19%. Despite the fact that at the end of the year it showed the worst result, having dropped by as much as 40.16%, in absolute terms it still wins over the others - its value at the end of the year amounted to 281.3 thousand rubles.
The final annual figures for the portfolio show that low-liquid assets carry a lot of market and non-market risks. Therefore, experts recommend to keep no more than 10% of the total capital in such instruments.
The analysts' opinions presented in this material, as well as the described examples of portfolios, do not constitute an individual investment recommendation (IIR).
