"Solar flares could be particularly powerful in 2025"
Flares on the Sun, which cause magnetic storms on Earth, in 2025 may be particularly powerful, albeit sporadic. Such events are characteristic of a decline in solar activity, which is what is happening now. At the same time, the peak of the current cycle was passed six months ago, said Professor, Director of the Astronomical Observatory of Irkutsk State University, a senior researcher at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS Sergey Yazev. In an interview with Izvestia, he gave an annual forecast of space weather, and also told what extraterrestrial dangers may threaten humans and why carbon dioxide is not to blame for global warming.
"We can predict events on the Sun only with a certain probability"
- Sergei Arkturovich, will there be more or fewer solar flares in the new year?
- Classical forecasts assumed that the peak of the current 11-year cycle of solar activity would be in 2025. This would mean that in the near future we should expect many solar events and, as a consequence, a large number of geomagnetic storms on Earth.
But my feeling is that the forecasts are lagging behind. For example, in May-June and then in August 2024 astronomers have already observed a large number of sunspots on the Sun, and this level will clearly not be surpassed. Therefore, I would venture to say that we have already passed the peak of the cycle and there will be fewer bright solar events in the new year. However, as experience shows, strong solar flares are also possible at the end of the cycle - single, but very strong. Therefore, we can expect that in 2025 solar flares may be particularly powerful.
- What is the reason for such cycle lengths?
- First, the Sun rotates on its axis unevenly. It is as if the Sun is made up of many rings on a common axis, each of which rotates at its own speed - the closer to the pole, the slower. Secondly, in the upper layer of the star (200 thousand kilometers thick) there is convection - the transfer of energy from the depths to the surface, where the hot plasma cools and plunges back into the depths. These and some other processes together, lead to variations in the intensity of the formation of magnetic fields on the Sun with a periodicity of about 11 years.
Strong localized magnetic fields on our luminary are manifested in the form of sunspots. They accumulate gigantic magnetic energy, which is then released in the form of powerful explosions - flares. However, to make it all happen, you still need spots of a special type - with high intensity and complex configuration of magnetic fields, mixed up in a certain way. And the more complex the magnetic field structure, the higher the probability of a strong flare.
- Understanding this, is it possible to predict solar flares?
- We can, but only to a certain extent. Some typical precursors to solar events have long been known. For example, large spot size, certain configuration of magnetic fields, spot rotation, and others. When these factors accumulate, the probability of a flare increases.
But at the same time, all these factors help to talk only about the probability of a flare, but do not guarantee it. In addition, it is impossible to specify in advance the exact time when the accumulation of energy will lead to a flare. Therefore, we can only predict solar events with a certain probability. Overall, these processes still need to be studied in more detail.
"In urban settings, we are constantly confronted with powerful magnetic fields"
- What are the dangers of flares for humans?
- The flares themselves are not dangerous in any way, it's still very far away. But sometimes during flares there is a so-called coronal ejection. At that moment, electromagnetic forces push a huge amount of charged particles - plasma - into space. This cloud travels at several hundred kilometers per second. At the same time, it swells to millions of kilometers in diameter.
If such an ejection is directed toward Earth, then in a couple of days the cloud reaches our planet. The collision of charged particles with the Earth's magnetic shell provokes its perturbation, which manifests itself as a geomagnetic storm. A number of specialists believe that they affect human health. However, human magnetodependence has not yet been reliably proven.
It is worth noting that in the conditions of the city we are constantly faced with powerful magnetic fields. They are generated by power lines, transformer substations, electric transport, cell towers and many other objects. Therefore, if a person feels geomagnetic storms, but does not feel the change of magnetic background, passing under trolleybus wires, it is strange.
Besides, nobody is afraid to do MRI, and there the magnetic field can be millions of times higher than the value of the Earth's field during a magnetic storm!
- They say birds have a sense of the Earth's magnetic field. Can such a property be manifested in humans?
- There is a hypothesis that birds have an organ responsible for this. According to this theory, they fly along magnetic meridians from north to south and back, and during magnetic storms go astray.
There's even a theory that this organ has survived in humans as an atavism. I doubt that very much. If you find a representative of our species, who, relying only on his senses, will determine the direction to the north, I think it will be a discovery on a global scale.
- What other cosmic dangers threaten humanity?
- There are various factors that, however, it is difficult to call threats, but they can create problems. For example, the same magnetic storms provoke currents that are induced in power lines, pipelines, railroad tracks. Experts say these currents can contribute to corrosion, and some networks may not be able to withstand too strong currents. This affects the operating life of industrial facilities. At the same time, competent engineers already at the initial design stage provide solutions that minimize the impact of induced currents.
As for cosmic radiation, people on Earth are protected from it by the planet's magnetosphere and atmosphere. These shells trap high-energy particles.
Some scientists warn about the danger of bacteria that travel in the nuclei of comets and can get to Earth. Note that no space bacteria have yet been detected. But if they do arrive, there is great competition on our planet and all suitable ecological niches are already occupied. Therefore, if other life comes to us, our biosphere will most likely destroy it immediately - it will simply be eaten.
"Global warming does not yet have a catastrophic scenario."
- How serious is the threat of collision with an asteroid?
- Such a threat exists, but we are reliably protected by the Earth's atmosphere. Celestial bodies less than a meter in size burn up in its dense layers. Anything larger than that is destroyed into small fragments.
This, for example, happened with the Chelyabinsk meteorite - a space object with a diameter of about 20 meters and a mass of about 10 thousand tons. In the atmosphere it collapsed and almost all of it scattered into small pebbles, although the shock wave and broke the glass in many windows. The largest 500-kilogram block broke through the ice and fell into Lake Chebarkul. But agree that it is hard to call it a catastrophe.
- Are collisions with larger celestial bodies possible?
- Such events occur, but extremely rare. And modern technology allows us to predict such collisions several years before they happen. Accordingly, people will have time to take action - develop, manufacture and send to intercept the spacecraft, which will either blow up the alien, or change its course so that it missed our planet. And people from the place of expected collision can be evacuated in time
At the same time, from "guests" from deep space (as recently discovered another comet Borisov), we are partially protected by giant planets - massive objects that their powerful gravity deflects most objects flying past them.
- Do space factors affect the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and increase the greenhouse effect?
- In fact, this factor, which many people perceive negatively, is actually very beneficial. In fact, it is thanks to the greenhouse effect that the average temperature on Earth is a comfortable +15 degrees Celsius. At the same time, the observed global warming does not yet have a catastrophic scenario, from my point of view. In the history of our planet there have been epochs when the average temperature was not half a degree, but ten degrees higher than today.
Secondly, carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere today is only 0.04%, while water vapor is two orders of magnitude more, and it has an incomparably stronger influence on the greenhouse effect. But for some reason no one is afraid of water vapor.
- So why is there warming?
- First, we have a self-regulating system, where warming leads to increased evaporation and, as a consequence, increased cloudiness in the atmosphere. The clouds prevent solar radiation from reaching the earth, reflecting it back into space. This provokes lower temperatures, less evaporation, less clouds. And so on - in a circle. This and several other mechanisms have provided the conditions for our life on Earth for almost 4 billion years.
Second, despite popular belief, it may turn out that the slow increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is a consequence, not a cause, of ocean warming. Up to 60% of this substance is dissolved in the world's oceans. With the warming of the water that is now occurring, the gas is coming out - like from a warm bottle of champagne. And why the ocean is warming - there are different theories. I believe that it is too early to give a definitive answer to the question of the causes of warming.
