Our shelf of profit: bitcoin investments have become the most profitable in 2024
At the beginning of 2024, the most profitable way to invest Br100,000 in bitcoin was to invest in bitcoin - this way the sum could be multiplied by 2.5 times, according to a study by FinExpertiza (available at Izvestia). The second place in terms of attractiveness is occupied by gold, which rose one and a half times during the year amid geopolitical shocks. Due to the high key interest rate, deposits were also among the top 3 best assets of the outgoing year, yielding about 20%. Next year you should pay attention to the stock and bond market - now the value of many quality securities is below fair value, and in 2025 they will be supported by the expected reduction in the Central Bank rate. What to invest in 2025 - in the material "Izvestia".
Bitcoin rate forecast
Bitcoin showed the highest yield for the 12 months of 2024, it exceeded 141%, follows from the data of the research of the analytical service of the audit and consulting network FinExpertiza. With a passive investment strategy on invested at the beginning of the year in cryptocurrency 100 thousand rubles could get an income of 141.3 thousand rubles (that is, the total account could be 241.3 thousand).
Cryptocurrencies - the most high-risk asset, which at the same time can bring significant profits, emphasized analyst of FG "Finam" Alexander Potavin. The value of bitcoin jumped one and a half times immediately after the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. elections and reached a maximum of $108 thousand. It is quite possible that this was only the first wave of growth in the value of the coin, so BTC is an attractive asset for long-term investment.
Another driver of growth in the crypto market was the approval of the first ETFs (analog of mutual funds) in bitcoin, explained BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. These are funds that invest in cryptocurrency and sell stakes in them on the exchange. The launch of the instrument attracted the attention of more conservative investors to BTC, which caused demand for it to grow steadily throughout the year.
The continued growth of the crypto market largely depends on whether Trump will fulfill his promises to create a U.S. reserve in cryptocurrency, added Fedor Naumov, head of analytics at PFL Advisors. Now on the balance sheet of the States lie 200 thousand BTC seized in court cases. The authorities plan to keep them, but purchases of cryptocurrency from the market are not expected yet.
In a favorable scenario, bitcoin is quite capable of reaching the level of $160 thousand, the peak value may occur in March-April and October-November, said Vladislav Antonov. However, we should take into account the risk of deep correction after reaching these highs, as it happened in the past periods.
If the scenario is favorable for the crypto, it is possible to reach peaks of $180-200 thousand for bitcoin, predicts Fedor Naumov. In this case, investments in BTC may again double by the end of 2025.
What assets were the most profitable in 2024th year
During the period of market turbulence in 2024, not only the most volatile asset, but also the most conservative - gold - showed good profitability. According to the results of the year, the precious metal rose in price by 43% (that is, thanks to the invested 100 thousand on it could earn 43 thousand). In October, its quotations updated the historical record of $2.8 thousand per ounce.
- World gold prices always grow in times of military conflicts, as the precious metal is considered a protective asset. In 2024, escalation in Ukraine continued and new hotspots in the Middle East erupted," explained Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.
In 2025, gold may rise in price to $3 thousand in the baseline scenario, the expert expects. In this case, in the case of escalation of military conflicts or other force majeure may work protective function of this asset, because of which its price will jump up to $3.5 thousand - in this case, its yield will be 28%.
Deposit rates in Russia
The third place in terms of profitability at the end of 2024 was taken by bank deposits. At the beginning of the year they could be opened at the rate of 14.3%. However, the projected average annual inflation of 9.5% was expected to eat up most of this income. However, in the second half of the year, interest rates were already much more favorable - and if a person preferred to open short deposits, the average yield for the year could be higher.
Since the beginning of 2024, the key interest rate has increased from 16% to 21%, and in the first quarter there are prospects for its increase up to 25%, experts said. So, in early 2025, Russians will be able to put money on even more profitable deposits - now the rates on them can reach 24% per annum.
- In all likelihood, inflation in Russia will not slow down quickly, so the reduction of the key if and will occur, but rather in the second half of the year and very gradually. Against this background, deposit rates in the worst case will fall to the range of 19-21% - this is still a very high level, - said Alexander Potavin "Finam".
In addition, in the top of the most profitable assets in 2024 got currency deposits. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar price has increased by 17% to Br104, while the euro - by 10% to Br109. Because of this, even deposits in these currencies at a rate of 1.96% and 2.78%, respectively, would be comparable in yield to ruble investments.
What to invest in 2025
Yield on deposits in rubles for a year in 22% in principle difficult to overtake with investments in other assets, warned analyst of FG "Finam" Alexander Potavin. Nevertheless, in 2025, investors may pay attention to Russian shares of major issuers - for example, Sber has a dividend yield of 15%, Lukoil - 16%, and on preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz - 18%. Together with the general growth of prices for these assets, the yield can reach 20-30%.
In addition, in 2024, the stock market depreciated significantly, because investors preferred to sell shares and send money to deposits, said Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. Over the year, the Moscow Exchange Index fell by almost 11% - because of this, many high-quality assets now look severely undervalued. Investments in blue chip stocks - the strongest issuers - may well pay off on the wave of market recovery, when the Central Bank starts to reduce the key rate.
- If the geopolitical situation moves towards warming, peace talks or lifting of sanctions, the ruble exchange rate and oil prices remain stable, and inflation continues to slow down, the Russian stock market has every chance of rising to 3500 points on the Moscow Exchange index, i.e. by another 27%," concluded Vladimir Chernov.
In addition, investors should pay attention to the corporate bond market, added Finam. Already now bonds of some large companies with high credit ratings can reach 22-26% with a maturity of about a year. It is unlikely that these issuers will default, and their rates are really attractive. In addition, the bonds themselves will become more expensive as the key rate falls, which will make it possible to sell them profitably in the future.
